PAK-RUSSIA-CHINA NEXUS: OPPORTUNITY INDIA

RUSSIA – PAKISTAN- CHINA NEXUS: OPPORTUNITY INDIA

Pakistan having been cornered by US & its allies on terror front is looking far options with the other camp, viz., China & Russia. Whereas China has been arming Pakistan defence forces including nuclear as counter weight & proxy against India, Russia seems to be new player in the game. Prez Trump coming down hard on China, Russia & Iran in addition to Pakistan is leading to new alignments in this part of region. With US looking for a way out of Afghanistan, others China, Russia, Iran, Pak and of course India wish to occupy the space to be vacated.

Russia, Iran & Pakistan would like US to be stuck in Afghanistan like Vietnam- draining its economy with no honourable exit. China is looking at strategic location & mineral wealth yet to be exploited in continental shelf of Afghanistan. Iran & Pak wish to increase influence due religious affinity across the border and strategic depth. India is looking at pro/neutral Afghanistan & Pak getting struck with terrorist organisations created by it. Pak needs deployment space for these venomous generation mentally trained to kill for Islam. Once Afghanistan stabilised, India would be next deployment ground for these terrorists. Present state of controlled violence in Afghanistan suits all as it ensures no single nation dominates Afghanistan to disadvantage of others. So its me or none.

India having moved some what away from Russia towards US for arms acquisitions, Pakistan and may be even Russia sees an opportunity in this changing scenario. Pakistan wants to acquire world class military hardware from Russia where China is lacking today. Tanks, helicopters and long range anti missile systems are on Pakistan wish list. With oil prices stabilising, Russia facing pressure from US and western Europe would be looking to reboot its economy. Should Pakistan be willing to purchase hardware in large quantities Russians are likely to oblige.

Question then arises, from where will Pakistan raise huge amounts for procurements? US cash hen is nearly dried up, Europe and other world bodies certainly won’t oblige and China won’t fund or will demand stringent conditions. Saudi Arabia has been magnanimous in the past but with Saudi economy under pressure and Saudi kingdom looking at opening up, may not be as magnanimous. In-house Pakistan economy is nearly broke and it can’t afford to purchase huge amount of weapons at non- subsidised rates.

Pakistan would be in a quandary to raise funds and should these be available, India must encourage or force it to procure more hardware as India itself is looking at mega spends in next few years. India must officially weakly protest but behind the scenes nudge Russia to sell whatever Pakistan’s wish list is, thereby ensuring its economic collapse. Imploding China would be huge disaster for China as CPEC/Gwader collapses taking down Chinese dreams of independence from vulnerable Sea Lines of Communication through Indian Ocean and its policy of strings of hostile basis around India collapses too.

Great opportunity for India to decimate Pakistan; diminish Chinese clot In Pakistan and Russia benefits economically. Iran; Afghanistan benefit immensely and India gets land route via Pakistan to Afghanistan and CAR.

Biggest challenge after Pakistan collapse would be managing Pakistan & terrorists network in Pakistan and radicalised youth which pose big threat. Saudi Arabia leading the way due to its moral authority of religious head of Sunni Islam to transform society to liberal, de denuclearised Pakistan would be win-win for mankind.