Monday, December 12, 2016

TERROR ATTACKS BY PAK ON MIL BASES

Of late Pakistan based terror groups have been successfully attacking India security forces with impunity in close vicinity to LC and deep inside. Much too the anguish of common citizen, there appears to be very little in terms of qualitative response.
Army bases in spite of all possible defensive measures of perimeter fencing; wall; patrolling with adequate night surveillance capability have failed to deter these attacks inspire of some quality of intelligence available.
Pakistan army denies all responsibility inspire of some credible evidence having been provided in the past. In any case deniability of terror action is part of state policy to bleed India. Moot questions then arise are:-
Who is the enemy?
What does he aspire to achieve?
What is the manifestation shape?
How to defeat the threat?
Who is the enemy?
            The enemy is a civilian who has been trained in all skills needed to fight armed enemy by indirect approach. Terrorist, called fidayeen or freedom fighter by the host country.  All are Muslims, could belong to any country, having operated as part jihadi group somewhere ranging from Afghanistan to Mid East or even Africa. Highly motivated  has developed expertise in using high technology; usage of explosives and latest gadgetry/weapons; physical and mental toughness in addition to basic military skills but is ruthless in brutality. Compassion and mercy not part of his personality domain. Fidayeen/suicide bombers or whatever one calls these terrorists; the idea first appeared during First World War. Japanese snipers would ties themselves on bamboo tops with some rations to snipe at approaching enemy to delay/cause causalities and impose caution whilst own troops got time to withdraw and prepare next defensive positions. Also when Gen Mc Arthur tanks landed on beaches, Jap soldiers would tie mines to their bodies and fall in front of the tank. Blowing tank and self in the bargain. Japanese pilots would take on high value combat missions flying in aircraft not yet fit to land. This is where the concept of assured death with mission execution came into being. The motivation behind suicidal mission was to defeat the enemy and fierce loyalty to the king. Terrorist have followed the same ideology, motivation being, since fighting holy war, will go to heaven post death.AM EXTREMELY HIGH MOTIVATION LEVEL
            Terrorist is a radicalised Muslim primarily executing mission during what he believes is jihad, holy religious war for protection of Islam. He is supported by Pakistan Establishment. IDENTITY WISE ENEMY IS BLURRED. This is the enemy posing new kind of threat.
 What does he Aspire to Achieve
            Pakistan wants Kashmir to be its part; avenge 71 defeat wherein it’s lost East Pakistan- now Bangla Desh. Since militarily it’s not feasible, it has used terror to back up its strategy of annexing Kashmir. Terrorists from Al Qaida/Taliban/others from Muslim countries fighting in Mid east/Africa/misguided youths from Kashmir. Pakistan has cultivated a very powerful loyalist; media; opinion makers and others to shape environments for this cause. Quite a chunk of populace sympathises with local terror sirs as view them as standing against states might on their behalf It has invested heavily as its long term battle of attrition by using fake currency/drug money to fund terrorists activities.
Unrest in Valley is key to success to ensure issue kept high on emotional fire. Separatist; local terrorist leaders; supporters in Government service and forced allegiance from civil. Fear; blackmail; money are used as tools to keep unemployed youth charged with anti national activities. Using media; democracy; Human Rights; NGOs to its advantage, it has managed huge followers/sympathisers with simple agenda of Freedom.
India is paying very heavy price. Huge defence/police presence and expenditure; youth radicalising; development suffering; students loosing academic years; no industry coming in so no jobs. It has virtually become economic cesspool with negative returns whereas huge potential in tourism; cash crops; herbs.
Indian military might and democracy enabling force application and negotiation through elected representatives is thwarting Pakistan plans. Though huge security forces presence is hated by all but its security curtain against terrorists.
Pak has achieved to economically drain India by using currency printed in Pak; radicalised youth; bleeding Kashmir and everyone suffering. India is paying huge price. Pak feels at some point of time, mass frustration could become an uprising for Freedom from India thus Kashmir can cede. Its ultimate dream.
What is Modus operandi?
            Post recruitment, he is trained at various camps imparting training in various disciplines. Indoctrination to reformat thought process to replace humane values with brutality and killing kafirs ; terrorising masses; suicide and great glory in dying followed by trip to heaven. Depending on skills achieved and level of motivation terrorist given responsibility for subsequent missions.
From training areas, he comes to HQ via staging areas for target briefing and mission execution plan. Satellite imagery and other intelligence available is shared during briefing. Necessary wherewithal needed is provisioned and handed over closer to crossing venue, which is generally from launch pads manned by border protection. Could spend few days to study security forces activity and familiarise with area close to border. Guidance coordination, if not done, would be done here.
            After crossing, move with the help of GPS by night or during day in the guise depending on safety and prevalent security state. Guided from point to point by agents/guides till reach the target area. In the vicinity of target area, undertake extensive confirmatory reconnaissance of target area with the help of local guides. Generally stay in safe houses provided by sympathisers/cells.
            Strike with surprise being most important factor. Early morning/sundown is most vulnerable times for bases as routine changing from day to night and vice a versa. Aim of terrorists is to cause maximum human damage and delay operations as much as possible by taking shelter behind safe areas/taking hostage. This gives advantage of mega media coverage adding to heroic value and vulnerability of defence forces. This over a period of time destroys people’s faith in the invincibility of the army.
How to defeat this threat?
            Yes, new threat needs new approach to defeat. Existing ways will fail and continue to fail. Army traditionally fought with enemy’s army on the borders and fell back once political negotiations took place post the war.
That’s history. Army must be prepared to fight terrorist threat by understanding his way of fighting and evolve own new way to defeat him. Standing armies have set predictable, mundane almost lethargic routines and standardised procedures leaving /expecting very little diversion from set procedures. Getting up for complete army depends on reveille as per timings laid down in met tables. Routine follows thereafter. Set routine and excessive dependence on procedures virtually destroys initiative of soldier/junior leader. This is greatest weakness when faced with unpredictable situation demanding different response.   
Terrorist, on the other hand having analysed army’s way exploits it fully. To beat him, think like a terrorist, then and only then can he be defeated.
Suggestions to defeat the new threat
·         Train soldier to think like a terrorist
·         Let soldiers plan operations as mock terrorists
·         Teach soldiers guise; deception; befriending locals
·         Intelligence gathering by mingling with civilians/shopkeepers
·         Sleep by day; train body night operation with same efficiency
·         Small team unconventional operations planning and execution
·         Back to basics- jungle/mountain lore to understand signs/ noises
·         Sniper firing – one shot assured kill at 2 kms
·         Handling of explosives/IED/first aid
·         Night/moon light operations with night devices
·         Extremely high physical fitness and mental alertness
·         Innovation
·         Mental toughness to bear very high degree of discomfort.
·         Interrogation
·         Move out- be aggressive, only then victory assured. Dominate area around
·         Defensive mentality is dangerous
·         Integrated info sharing and cord destruction of terrorists by QRTs
·         Confidence in weapon; equipment handling
·         Surprise; stealth; deceit and minimal external support to execute mission
·         Special precautions on days emotionally closer to jihadis.
Conclusion
            New war, combining regular and terror is a fact of life. It has to be fought and defeated by analysing its vulnerability and exploiting the same. Procedural; routine need to be replaced with innovation ;small team operations by using aggression, guise,  mixing /dominating areas around and sniper fire /others weapons/equipment to minimise collateral damage.
            Break the routine, come out of zero mistakes and take operational risks. Go out, seek and destroy the terrorist by pre-empting by keeping sympathisers under watch with help of police and sources.
            Defeating demands following new rules or keep facing defeat and sulking.
Choice is ours and nation won’t accept repeated failures. Rise and succeed. Live upto our expectations


Thursday, December 1, 2016

REMONETISATION: EMERGENCE OF NEW INDIA

Laurels from one and all and brickbats from opposition with in India post re (de)monetisation followed with both warning of severe ramifications. Black money; terror; hawala and associated activities like stone palters in valley; Naxal in Central India; sports illegal betting were all down stated GOI. Opposition on the other hand, claimed extreme hardships to rural and marginalised populace in the country. Both had some merit in what their rationale was.PM then spoke to Nation highlighting his aim of new; developed; corruption free India so bear hardship for sometimes. One and all, to the utter surprise of Media/politicians suddenly realised ground slipping from underneath their feet. Nation with PM Modi and Opposition in paralytic mode. Hereafter Opposition lost the script, though seasoned politicians decided to be silent on people friendly measure but few decided to take it head on. Conveying rationale, which common man understood was they had lost black money leading to sudden empathy for common man as effectively countered by PM that those shouting were the ones who had lost black money. Nation with PM, opposition cornered. All theatrics failed to get any sympathy from masses. It soon became corrupt vs. Honest. Opposition got a knockout punch with irrational behaviour decimated its credibility and unity in disarray.
People protesting loudest were those who lost huge wealth as no notice was given to convert unaccounted wealth. Media in spite of its best efforts to get angry inputs were very clearly told, much to the agony of reporters, yes problems of cash are there but willing to give PM days he has asked for. The wait for cash in the first week post remonetisation was agonising.
Some sulked but innovative shopkeeper very quickly learnt and accepted digital payments much to the chagrin of intellectual class. Thought to be dumbest but surprised most by shear survival instinct by turning threat into an opportunity.
Almost three weeks into remonetisation process, worst seem to be behind but nation continues to stand solidly behind PM. Some called it a masterstroke others a historical blunder and few others excellent idea but poorly implemented. Charisma; faith; hope for bright future- whatever one calls it, PM Modi stands much taller than any other leader, in fact as he grew tall others by stupidity became pygmies.
Midway through the process, something’s are very encouraging and clear.
India is ready for digitalised style of working. No hassles at all. Hardly literates picked up E-payments in less than an hour.
India is basically lethargic, quite contended wit status quo but faced with crisis, responds surprisingly well.
Corruption; arrogance of power and vulgar display of wealth by politicians is hated like plague. Establishment, which had taken bribes as its right for duty performance is again despised. People asking for part payment in black were a big pain for a salaried citizen. One had to live with it as no alternative option existed. It’s hoped bribes and component in blacks and arrogance/vulgar display of wealth would be history.
Silent, bloodless transformation which cannot be appreciated by all undergoing routine drudgery of life but for a student of history it’s probably greater in magnitude than French revolution.
Corrupt politicians; dynasties inheriting power by subjugating system converting democracy into feudalism was out of sync with aspiration of masses. Revolt was building up what was finding no expression till PM Modi understood and exploited it. Era of honest, responsive, accountable, transparent leadership has arrived. Either brace up or perish.
Crowds collected for rallies through paid contractors would be history. Times of crowd of lakhs may be history unless there is popular leadership.
Corruption and bribe free developed nation providing quality services and basic amenities to all its citizens with most services available online is the transformation from corrupt; filthy; creaking infra; agrarian; on responsive establishment and bribe for services. Mega change of massive scale and dimensions. Revolution which opposition failed to decipher but masses understood.
PM Modi has taken a great risk, making many enemies who will try to ensure failure of remonetisation by whatever means they can; people too may lose patience so the battle is a t crucial stage with scales slowly tilting in favour of PM but delicate balance demanding urgency in cash availability followed by genuine pro India reforms ensuring dignified, safe, empowered life and access to basic amenities to all citizens