CHINESE LADAKH TRANSGRESSION & RAMIFICATIONS

China after conducting its exercises in Tibet, rather than de induct to mainland moved it closer to Indo - Tibet border. Huge force level had two Motorised divisions plus all or-batted units required to wage war.

China amassed its forces at Depsang plain just across DBO & Galwan valley just across Shyok - Gulwan river junction. Experts have opined that the movement by the Chinese at the Depsang plains was serious. People's Liberation Army is close to a place known as Bottleneck. This is the Rakki and Jeewan rivulets are where there was a stand-off in 2013.

Its believed that any movement westwards by the PLA can threaten the Dabruk-Shyok-DBO road and the airfield. Further movement of additional PLA troops over the past one week at the Depsang plains, further north of Galwan towards the Karakoram pass. This has raised concerns as the Daulat Beg Oldie is less than 25 kilometres from the Chinese posts.

Chinese had also increased presence at Pangong Tso & opposite Demchok plains in defensive posture. Reportedly Chinese soldiers & allied wherewithal are already present in POK to construct dams & allied infrastructure.

Pakistan was relocating terrorists in POK Pakistan was also activating LOC almost daily with very heavy artillery shelling to engage our posts and thereby facilitate terrorist induction.

It thus emerges

Large force presence opposite Depsang plains

Significant force level in Galwan River bed & heights around, with habitat & road construction activity

Pangong Tso lake had reasonable amount of force

Across Demchok plains, Chinese were deployed to absorb any counter by Indian forces

POK had defence personnel with huge engineering equipment pre located available for any strike from Western side

Pakistan army was trying to keep LOC troops fully active with artillery firing to facilitate terrorist induction.

Chinese President Xi had declared himself as President for life & dreamed of making China into No One super power by dethroning USA. President Trump was coming down heavy on Chinese economy which was hurting China & post corona unleashing its gone worse with many MNCs moving out of China. With 300 million unemployed, massive unrest wasn’t ruled out by Xi. Chinese aggression in Hong Kong, Taiwan & South China Sea plus Ladakh was perceived by rest of the world as treacherous & untrustworthy behaviour not in harmony with civilised world values. Its threatening nations with consequences if anyone voiced opinions against China either on Corona or 5 G Chinese companies. It had really let loose its plan to usurp power whilst world was busy with corona catastrophe by using military & economic leverage.

India on the other hand was totally busy in winter stocking of troops deployed in high altitude areas & fighting corona. Chinese fifth column comprising media, journalists, intellectuals, politicians & many veterans were fully active in announcing Indian army defeat & Chinese having won decisive victory by occupying huge chunks of strategic territory. And many not only disbelieved Indian version but tried best to discredit Indian version by misinterpreting satellite imageries or quoting reliable sourced on conditions on anonymity. China support was full & Indian govt the punching bag till nationalists punctured the narrative & truth emerged albeit slowly.

In fact complete free world was totally fighting Chinese unleashed corona rather unsuccessfully with WHO contributing to misery through misinformation by behaving like Chinese pawn.

By end May Chinese stage was set to unfold its grand strategy of expansionism through salami slicing in Ladakh. Interdict DBO road around Galwan. Using Depsang force to capture DBO/deny airfield thereafter link up with Shaksham valley/POK whilst maintaining pressure at Pangong Tso & Demchok. POK based military force starts operation from West to join Depsang plain thrust. With DBO captured/isolated Indian position & military situation would have been precarious with defeat as the only option. The terminal state would have been ore humiliating than 62 defeat.

The plan couldn’t succeed for two reasons, one is super fast build up by India using road & air resources. Second was extremely gallant action by 16 Bihar on 15/16 Jun & reasonably stubborn response in Pangong Tso earlier. 16 BIHAR Galwan action though tactical in nature had massive strategic ramifications with condemnation world wide & the tide turned.

Strong response by PM & USA, Russia & rest of free world standing with India checkmated Chinese design totally. In fact focus shifted to South China Sea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Uighur & Tibet.

However, this withdrawal or whatever one wishes to call it, as temporary, Chinese transgressions shall continue till LAC defined, which China is disinterested. Hasn’t given maps of its perception & our babudom completed twenty plus rounds of talks. Poodle faking. India must be prepared for such Chinese actions till it gives a befitting reply. India can’t match China militarily or economically thus need to get into alliance of like minded nations to counter China.

India could undertake following steps to counter untrustworthy neighbour hell bent on consuming large areas belonging to weaker nations. Suggested actions given below

Force permanent deployment on LAC by Chinese

ITBP under local operational commander

Relocate Tibetans from McLeod Ganj to Ladakh

Due respectability to HH Dalai Lama

Demand Tibet being independent Country

Raise Uighur human rights issue; support Taiwan & other nations in that area

Get into strategic economic & military alliance against China to counter its expansionism on land & sea

Let Indian companies take on infrastructure contracts even if slightly costlier

Replace China worldwide as manufacturing destination

Curtail fifth columnists or those openly supporting China but belittling India

Baluchistan & POK must be addressed to curtail Pakistan terror

China should be debarred from permanent membership of UNSC

Debar China from Tokyo Olympics 2021

China has a dream of its position & aims to achieve at any cost. Its failed attempt of 2020 has been an unmitigated blunder. Its lost too much of trust but be rest assured China is a nation focussed on its national interests, values or methods are inconsequential. India whilst developing itself economically & militarily must get into economic & strategic alliance to safeguard our future interests.

COUNTERING BELLIGERENT CHINESE RISE

China is economically & military an extremely powerful nation as of date. Over a period of time it has used coercion & financial clout to subjugate to weak democratic/autocratic leaders; dominated influencing world bodies, media houses/opinion makers in democratic nations & funded Universities/political parties with millions of dollars.

Present Chinese leadership unleashed corona across the globe & whilst world was fighting virus it initiated its expansionist agenda for capturing territory in neighbourhood both at land & sea.

None of its neighbours including Russia or India can counter Chinese military individually. Smaller nations of South China Sea or economic giant Japan too can not challenge China all by itself. Chinese STRENGTH is MILITARY & its WEAKNESS ECONOMY

Chinese rise is dangerous due treachery & its violation of treaties as convenient to it. Its today the EVIL empire – hated, untrustworthy & feared. It can use brute force without caring for world bodies or values followed by democracies. Subjugation of Tibet or inhumane treatment of Uighur Muslims or use of excessive force against Hongkong & using force to scare Taiwan, Vietnam, Philippines & other smaller nations. Creating trouble in Myanmar or seizing Nepalese territory, it has created many enemies.

Chinese friends incl North Korea & Pakistan(available to highest bidder aka HIRAMANDI tradition) Almost colonised will do Chinese bidding totally. Restive Baluchistan & POK would keep Pakistan armed forces fully committed.

Chinese vulnerabilities are massive. Unemployment, restive population of captured territories, own youth/population/veterans demanding freedom & accountability. Chinese line of communication to fight India or assist Pakistan pass through Tibet/Xinjiang restive regions & its shipping getting oil from Middle East passes through narrow Malacca straight, easily choked from A&N islands.

Since China is posing threat to existing world order it would be prudent to form an alliance to counter belligerent rise of evil empire. India is one fulcrum capable of challenging China across Himalayas, however, OIC & CAR nations need to join to save Uighur Muslims from Chinese torture. Both these organisations combined have adequate influence to restraint Pakistan & push from Western side threatening CPEC/Karakoram Highway/Aksai Chin/POK. This push aims to liberate East Turkmenistan (present Xinjiang) & Tibet. With India & this land based alliance ties down huge Chinese forces in maintaining Lines of Communication/logistic support & weaken its capability in South China Sea.

US led QUAD to block Malacca & SCS & curtail oil flow from Middle East. Logistic bases at Diego Garcia/A&N Islands/Guam in Pacific to support. This operation ensures smaller nation

are free from fear of Bully & SCS available to all for shipping.

Prolonged deployment astride Himalayas along CAR- Indo – China - Myanmar border & OIC posturing from West threatening East Turkmenistan.

Grand strategy must be THREATENING MILITARILY but DECIMATING ECONOMICALLY whilst restive assets in Tibet/Xinjiang/mainland China add to Chinese miseries.

Chinese economic collapse ensure

Present aggressive leadership replaced

Behaviour in harmony with international norms

Neutralised as military threat

Tibet, Xinjiang, Macau, Mongolia, Hongkong & Taiwan independent states

Harmonious & peaceful world

CHINESE MISADVENTURE IN LADAKH & POSSIBLE END RESULTS

Whilst India was busy fighting Chinese unleashed Corona virus, this treacherous & backstabbing nation transgressed into certain territories in Ladakh region. Violating all treaties & protocols it assaulted Indian soldiers with iron rods & barbed wire made instruments capable of severe injuries incl fatalities. India lost a CO & twenty men but Chinese losses unknown because its afraid of justifying dead. It occupied few other points as well.

Whilst talks of mutual withdrawal were ongoing it has amassed its war waging wherewithal at number of places but so has India reinforced its forces with tanks, artillery guns & trained manpower.

Reasons for Chinese transgression, claimed by experts, are many. These include

Infrastructure development close to LAC negating Chinese build up superiority

Fear of India capturing POK & Aksai Chin

Perceived threat to CPEC

Change of status of J&K

Teach India a lesson

Capture territories as part of Slamy slicing

Divert attention from internal problems. Unemployment, economy etc

Announce to the world China has arrived

China had amassed troops & war fighting resources in Tibet as part of annual exercise. Instead of falling back, these were inducted into Galwan valley & some other places. Most of the mundane issues have been discussed in national/international media with everyone giving his own assessment. Its worth noting that Indian army or government has not shared much information; China doesn’t share much other than propaganda material. Truth is known to armies or nations at apex level rest all is in speculation or professional analysis. Danger of this narrative is, in satellite image reading experts vary from deep movement into Indian territory to crossing. Thus credibility question mark.

Chines media initially threatening India with war dire consequences, be prepared to fight with Nepal/Pakistan & China. Later, after Galwan encounter, there was total change. Quoting Mahatma Gandhi; don’t align with USA, India China can rise together etc but it kept on building its forces across LAC all along Indo – Chinese border. During India DM’s visit to Russia for 75 anniversary victory parade, India requested for additional weapons on priority, which were promised. Indian RM refused to interact with Chinese counterpart, though mouthpiece Global Times announced meeting was on & then it requested Russia not to give weapons to India, it was declined. China continues to expand area of flash points though being challenged by Indian army at every point.

Indian army is extremely strong in mountain warfare & its air force superior to China. Airfield locations give clear advantage to India. India has matching armoured & surveillance capabilities & superior air mobility & artillery. China on the other hand has better missiles & cyber capability plus huge influencing assets in Indian media/political parties/veteran journalists. But its has long logistic lines, little infrastructure to deploy in strength to man LAC plus extremely vulnerable border areas both Tibet & Xinjiang.

At the international level, China is accused & isolated on unleashing corona; free world leaders wish to examine facts & probably recommend punitive measure incl economic sanctions. Its belligerence in Hongkong, Taiwan, South China Sea, Japan & Vietnam has been taken cognizance of & certainly not being accepted; its economy already squeezing will suffer huge if manufacturing moves out of China.

USA has already moved its aircraft carriers to South China Sea, its relocating forces from Germany to Asia to counter belligerent China. India has moved its warships from Arabian Sea to Bay of Bengal monitoring Malacca straight – connecting Pacific to Indian Ocean. Quad US, India, Japan & Australian navies should be moving in due course & Japanese are deploying missiles capable of countering hostile Chinese activity.

Options for India

Military domain. Build up so as not to get surprised

Contain transgression

Occupy heights elsewhere in disputed areas,should PLA refuse to return from areas occupied by it

Keep PLA engaged till winters, General WINTER will destroy PLA

Keep POK option open, should PLA withdraw prematurely

Reserves tied down, can’t influence South China Sea operations

Don’t cede any territory or fresh claims

Coordinate with US & Quad operations in South China Sea & activate assets in China, Hongkong, Taiwan, Japan & Korea. Extremely vulnerable logistic support lines.

Economy collapsing is better option as military action could rally people with Xi Jingping; economic disaster will destroy him without round fired

Desirable end states

Xi jingping dethroned by his people & China collapses aka USSR

India would be delighted if Aksai Chin & POK rejoin India. CPEC dead. Tibet independent – HHDL returns honourably back to Tibet. India would be satisfied if LAC demarcated & converted into International Border.

Free world led by USA. Satisfied if force not used against Hongkong & other nations of South China Sea & free passage assured to all ships. China behaves responsibly as per international norms. Replace Xi jingping with moderate leader.

Dependence on China reduced significantly

China would like to emerge as sole super power dethroning USA & thereafter rule the world through its values system by dominating all word decision making bodies. Increase its territories by integrating Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan & occupy Northern parts of Ladakh to reduce threat to CPEC & other assets in POK/Aksaichin/Xinjiang.