CHINESE MISADVENTURE IN LADAKH & POSSIBLE END RESULTS

Whilst India was busy fighting Chinese unleashed Corona virus, this treacherous & backstabbing nation transgressed into certain territories in Ladakh region. Violating all treaties & protocols it assaulted Indian soldiers with iron rods & barbed wire made instruments capable of severe injuries incl fatalities. India lost a CO & twenty men but Chinese losses unknown because its afraid of justifying dead. It occupied few other points as well.

Whilst talks of mutual withdrawal were ongoing it has amassed its war waging wherewithal at number of places but so has India reinforced its forces with tanks, artillery guns & trained manpower.

Reasons for Chinese transgression, claimed by experts, are many. These include

Infrastructure development close to LAC negating Chinese build up superiority

Fear of India capturing POK & Aksai Chin

Perceived threat to CPEC

Change of status of J&K

Teach India a lesson

Capture territories as part of Slamy slicing

Divert attention from internal problems. Unemployment, economy etc

Announce to the world China has arrived

China had amassed troops & war fighting resources in Tibet as part of annual exercise. Instead of falling back, these were inducted into Galwan valley & some other places. Most of the mundane issues have been discussed in national/international media with everyone giving his own assessment. Its worth noting that Indian army or government has not shared much information; China doesn’t share much other than propaganda material. Truth is known to armies or nations at apex level rest all is in speculation or professional analysis. Danger of this narrative is, in satellite image reading experts vary from deep movement into Indian territory to crossing. Thus credibility question mark.

Chines media initially threatening India with war dire consequences, be prepared to fight with Nepal/Pakistan & China. Later, after Galwan encounter, there was total change. Quoting Mahatma Gandhi; don’t align with USA, India China can rise together etc but it kept on building its forces across LAC all along Indo – Chinese border. During India DM’s visit to Russia for 75 anniversary victory parade, India requested for additional weapons on priority, which were promised. Indian RM refused to interact with Chinese counterpart, though mouthpiece Global Times announced meeting was on & then it requested Russia not to give weapons to India, it was declined. China continues to expand area of flash points though being challenged by Indian army at every point.

Indian army is extremely strong in mountain warfare & its air force superior to China. Airfield locations give clear advantage to India. India has matching armoured & surveillance capabilities & superior air mobility & artillery. China on the other hand has better missiles & cyber capability plus huge influencing assets in Indian media/political parties/veteran journalists. But its has long logistic lines, little infrastructure to deploy in strength to man LAC plus extremely vulnerable border areas both Tibet & Xinjiang.

At the international level, China is accused & isolated on unleashing corona; free world leaders wish to examine facts & probably recommend punitive measure incl economic sanctions. Its belligerence in Hongkong, Taiwan, South China Sea, Japan & Vietnam has been taken cognizance of & certainly not being accepted; its economy already squeezing will suffer huge if manufacturing moves out of China.

USA has already moved its aircraft carriers to South China Sea, its relocating forces from Germany to Asia to counter belligerent China. India has moved its warships from Arabian Sea to Bay of Bengal monitoring Malacca straight – connecting Pacific to Indian Ocean. Quad US, India, Japan & Australian navies should be moving in due course & Japanese are deploying missiles capable of countering hostile Chinese activity.

Options for India

Military domain. Build up so as not to get surprised

Contain transgression

Occupy heights elsewhere in disputed areas,should PLA refuse to return from areas occupied by it

Keep PLA engaged till winters, General WINTER will destroy PLA

Keep POK option open, should PLA withdraw prematurely

Reserves tied down, can’t influence South China Sea operations

Don’t cede any territory or fresh claims

Coordinate with US & Quad operations in South China Sea & activate assets in China, Hongkong, Taiwan, Japan & Korea. Extremely vulnerable logistic support lines.

Economy collapsing is better option as military action could rally people with Xi Jingping; economic disaster will destroy him without round fired

Desirable end states

Xi jingping dethroned by his people & China collapses aka USSR

India would be delighted if Aksai Chin & POK rejoin India. CPEC dead. Tibet independent – HHDL returns honourably back to Tibet. India would be satisfied if LAC demarcated & converted into International Border.

Free world led by USA. Satisfied if force not used against Hongkong & other nations of South China Sea & free passage assured to all ships. China behaves responsibly as per international norms. Replace Xi jingping with moderate leader.

Dependence on China reduced significantly

China would like to emerge as sole super power dethroning USA & thereafter rule the world through its values system by dominating all word decision making bodies. Increase its territories by integrating Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan & occupy Northern parts of Ladakh to reduce threat to CPEC & other assets in POK/Aksaichin/Xinjiang.