FACING ERRING CHINA

China is known for its unpredictable behaviour with its neighbours wherein the boundaries are concerned. It has problems with all its neighbours where it feels a future clash of interest for resources or its domination aspirations. It has a great skill in time manipulation to its convenience. Keeping the issue alive but manage the tempo of aggravation depending on factors which are positive fir it and negative for its adversary. It also focuses on national interests very strongly- invests without bothering about the regime profile or the world opinion till it serves its interests. It has created enough irritants like North Korea and support for regimes which the western world treats as rogue/hostile. Its financial might and UN permanent membership gives it enough clout in the form at international level. The mystery about its leadership, opaque policies, little discussion on matters of strategic nature, its weapon development budget. R&D is all issues shrouded in mystery.

          On the strategic front Chinese have invested at points which address the future energy needs and SLOC. It uses money and easy finances and transfer of technology to some to extend its influence. China has thus put in place a powerful mechanism which enables it control the rogue nations—its more akin to mafia like support which is based on anti-US policies rather than any other groupings of positive influence and its manipulating it rather well. It has Pakistan for India; North Korea for South East Asia; Iran, Syria and Gwader for West.

          On the domestic front China has massive problems. It has a fragmented society with Han Chinese managing all the best that is available and others are given second rate treatment. There is a serious problem on financial and social disparity. The labour and rural populace is having an extremely stressful and uncertain life. Strikes and unrest is an extremely serious challenge to the government and if present trend is any indicator things are not under control. Corruption at high places is massive.  Freedom of religion and others which the free world takes for granted is not available to Chinese Citizens. Tibetans, Muslims occupying the Southern and Western border are restive and deeply agitated and suppressed populace. There is great hatred for the Central Government and Han Chinese. The free world does not come to know about the undercurrents because the Chinese government controls the electronic, print and cyber media content- thus what appears in the media is what is approved rather than the truth. Massive infrastructure and big tickets projects which impresses the rest of the world is an excellent exercise in PR but it conceals the harsher truth. Its soldiers are weak to fight the modern combat because defence forces are no more the number one choice and like any modernizing society youth is avoiding the harsher life. In addition with one child norm strictly enforced in China for quite sometimes, no parent desires his son to die or face deprivations. China today is extremely vulnerable as a society and nation from forces within. Keeping external threats alive is a compulsion to distract the people from the internal problems.

          China will avoid going into a direct confrontation because it has rogue states to be irritants and keep the target nations involved. It comes up as a facilitator once things need intervention. Stalemate or large causalities would be a loss of face for China which would have disastrous ramifications at the highest levels.  However, it will keep border skirmishes at land and sea alive to maintain its claim and address them at the opportune time. It also forays into controlled- escalation situation to analyse the response and improve its bargaining position. China is also investing very heavily in the next generation warfare, viz, cyber, remote, robotics, artificial intelligence, space, perception management, missile and anti-missile and sea denial-access, long range missiles and air and sea craft, high altitude and strategic move and deployment capabilities. It would like to be in a force the adversary into submission preferably without firing a shot at best. Should that not deliver, it would plan to escalate the war so that physical use of manpower involving hand to hand combat is an exception. There are going to be big wars where the complete border from Arunachal Pradesh to Kashmir will get activated with thousands of troops marching across but is likely to happen is localised border incidents which may be upgraded to skirmishes if it suits there design.

          Any response has credibility only if the nation has the will of impose its might which could be influence, financial, strategic, alliances and manage the adverse reaction including the UN intervention before the end result. If this is not achievable then it requires serious introspection. What should our response be?

          At the strategic level alliances with US, Japan, Korea, Australia- New Zealand, immediate neighbours, CAR, Iran and IOR states for cooperation in use of resources and threat management would be extremely desirable as Chinese are threatening all these states/using their strategic assets to encircle India. Cyber and sea control/denial/surveillance/ patrolling/anti-piracy operations and resources sharing could be the aim.

          Need to counter the superiority of the adversary in the new generation warfare. Sadly India is lagging behind and unable to move ahead. The problems are well known but need to be addressed.

          Border infrastructure to move, employ and sustain forces is extremely poor as compared to the Chinese. Roads, habitat, airfields and other war fighting capability need to be created. This will deter the adversary from ant adventurism.

          Capability to move forces and employ them in acceptable time frame due to high altitude problems of acclimatisation need for lead time to increase to four to six weeks.

          The force multipliers need to be enhanced. From Pakistan centric threat there is need to refocus on Chinese centric thereat. This would be huge challenge requiring almost a decade to create the ability.

          It is a sad commentary to see the people in power making dovish, almost humiliating statements when the aggressor has clearly defaulted and justifying the unethical act. The problem is that the Chinese know that India today is led by a confused, fragmented leadership and highly vulnerable and it can get away with its acts without much of ramification. Very sad for a nation which aspires to be a super power.

          Wake up call friends lest it’s too late

ASSAULT ON RAPE

Rape seems to be the latest crime that has shaken up the nation and it seems to be happening with a scary frequency. Akin to the December 2012 incident where everyone wanted the Police Commissioner to resign; candle marches; street protests, TV panel discussion, the recent incident and many more in future will be forgotten in a few days’ time and life carries on as usual.

The Supreme Court had some times back observed that India is "becoming a hub" for large scale child prostitution rackets. An article about the Rescue Foundation in New Internationalist magazine states that "according to Save the Children India, clients now prefer 10- to 12-year-old girls". Ministry of Women and Child Development estimated that there are around 2.8 million sex workers in India, with 35.47 per cent of them entering the trade before the age of 18 years. Nepalese girls are trafficked into the red light districts in Indian cities, and that many of the girls may only be 9 or 10 years old. The human desire for young girls is rapidly increasing in India. It should not shock us unless we feign ignorance of the facts.

The reason may be that we are addressing the symptom and not the cause; the proximate and not the ultimate. In any case if laws were adequate to stop crime then society would have been crime free, unfortunately human behaviour as its own dynamics.

Rape is bad but it’s the sadism associated with it which is scary and needs immediate attention as its indicative of larger malice in the society. It’s happened in both the cases Dec 2012 and Apr 2013 with offenders leaving foreign bodies inside the victim and leaving them for dead post extreme violence. The sadism is a sign of sick mind and known reasons for this sickness are:

Disturbed Childhood

Strict or aloof father.

Being a victim of child/adult abuse

Deprived in life

Poor value system in the family. Absence of spirituality/ religion and or positive thought inducing environment

Absence of respect for girl/female in the family/village/community- beating/harassment/ill treatment/psy torture/tantrums/ menial jobs.

Right of way for the male child vis a vis the girl child

Displaced aggression is a common reason. To take this further, many unemployed frustrated youth might rape a woman belonging to an affluent class because of jealousy or revenge, not just lust.

 People of a higher class/caste may do it to a person whom they consider inferior, often due to land disputes.

 Gang rapes are more common in India (particularly in rural India), and are often motivated by revenge.

Pornography, movies, TV, provocative dresses and migration of rural, uneducated, unskilled, deprived young males from rural India where women are treated with disdain have contributed.

Families from rural areas moving to cities for better opportunities and living in slum like housing contribute their bit whilst these people are moving from deprivation to inclusion.

Desire of deprived to access the toys adding to the macho status

Indian women are at greater risk

In India there is an added factor loaded against women. As they have a lower status in society than men it makes them more vulnerable to sexual crimes as men view them not only as sex objects but also as non-entities.

The problem is compounded by the fact that in India raped women are often rejected by their families.

In courts their reputation are attacked if it is revealed that they were raped or molested. This makes them reluctant to complain against their assailant, which in turn encourages rape.

 Rapist profile

Analysis of police data in western countries has revealed startling facts which again co-relate almost exactly with the Indian situation.

The majority of rapists arrested are young males between 16-24 years of age. As a group, they mostly come from the lower end of the socio-economic ladder. Typically they are unskilled workers with low intelligence, little education and low income. Research in the US has also revealed that most rapes are planned events. About 80% of rapists commit the act in the neighbourhood in which they reside and many rapes take place in an urban, nocturnal setting. 

Reporting Investigation Conviction

Sexual violence and rape in particular, is considered the most under-reported violent crime across the world even amongst the aware and educated societies. In Italy, a 2006 National Statistical Institute survey on violence against women found that 91, 6% of women who experienced rape did not report it to the police.

Since the vast majority of rapes are committed by persons known to the victim, the initiation and process of a rape investigation depends much on the victim's willingness and ability to report and describe a rape. In the United Kingdom, the conviction rate is about 5.6% in and Ireland had the lowest rate of conviction for rape (1%).

Remedial Measures

          The problem is extremely serious and much deeper than what is officially reported. The measure has to be both proximate and ultimate. Proximate are being addressed kind courtesy the civil society, youth, media and a number of other pressures.

          The issues which need to be addressed are long term otherwise the rapid urbanisation will aggravate the issue.

Family

We as a nation have always had a very strong parental influence on the next generations. The stories which were narrated by the grand ma before going to bed combing anecdote with a lesson and the victory of good over the evil was strong psychological influence. The coming of paid nanny and creche culture is denting this tradition. Needs to be brought back in whatever way within the constraints of evolving society.

Society

          The treatment of females is greatly varying in our society. The patriarchal system, dowry, preference for a boy have all added to the girl child, it’s more pronounced in North India. The reason may be that North India was subjected to massive foreign invasions by Muslim invaders from North and West. In the good old days the winner carried away the females as the prize of war. Saving the honour  of the girl became the biggest challenge therefore need to avoid a girl child and the cascading implication of child marriage.  Amongst the tribes and South of Vindhyachal the respect for females is much better. This is inheritance and deep mind set. The answer lies in empowerment— enforce the girl getting her share of property (the law exists but the emotional blackmail deprives the girl of property) and  edu cum financial empowerment. Only then the mind-set will change.

Religious Teachers

          Our religious teachers have a dominant say in their respective spheres of influence. A message going through them will have wonderful impact. However some Muslim leaders will need to combine at religious- reformers- intellectual level to upgrade their women’s place in their way of thinking. In the name of secularism unfortunately our mass leaders have failed to exploit the most dominant force capable of silent transformation.

Inclusiveness

          The deprivation problem is extremely acute in some of the rural areas of Central India. Extreme poverty, non-availability of basic needs, education in fact its battle for survival on daily basis. Its sheer exploitation by everyone starting from the village head to the contractor and everyone who controls any resource.  There is a need for addressing this issue

Education

          Value based education, debates, discussion and self-empowering education needs to be imparted. Self-respect, esteem and facilitating financial empowerment would do wonders to the mind-set.

Identification of Potential Criminals          

The potential criminal starts to show early signs from childhood days and they keep getting aggravated as the child grows. It is possible to identify such characters who exhibit traits of bullying; introvert; isolationist; brooder; cruelty towards animals; excessively critical/negative about life; blaming society for one’s misdeeds; drugs/alcohol /smoking or other bad habits early in life.

          Such children, boys, youth need treatment and they can be identified by parents; teachers; friends and peers. Close watch by the society and psychiatric treatment/professional counselling at the right time would make significant difference.

Grooming

          Every male desires a film heroine as his wife not withstanding his personal traits. Similarly every girl desires a rich, smart, and polished and hero like boyfriend/husband. Both desire access to good things of life mainly materialist. Starting from a motorcycle to very thing else that is seen in a decent house as shown in TV serial. Wishes to live the life as depicted by the film/TV. Boy/girl brought up in a rural area and moving to urban area faces the challenge of quickly getting absorbed in the new society and could easily become the victim from the fear of refusal.

Role of Aware Citizenry

          The society – and police need to cooperate to tackle this menace. Potential criminal needs to be identified and confidentially communicated to the local Police Station. Thereafter surveillance and treatment as recommended by the psychiatrists / counsellors be implemented. It is not possible for the police to be everywhere but the people are. A shopkeeper, society guard; peers, co-workers  and friends circle can easily identify such people who are sick and need treatment. They need empathy and not isolation which will bring the sadism-animal in them at the very worst.

          An arrangement where police develops the capability to tackle this sickness on a tip off from the civil society is perhaps the long term workable option.

 Laws; Speedy Investigations and Disposal

          Speedy investigation and speedy and exemplary punishment would go some way in minimising the problem.

          Police needs to co-opt the society in case it wishes to effectively prevent occurrence, otherwise it will keep have to keep facing the ire of the people.

          The family of the criminal should also be taken to task for not reporting the man for his criminal bent of mind to the police. Locality where the criminal stayed should also be held responsible for its failure to report the matter.

 Make A Difference

Lets make a difference by pooling our efforts and stop blaming others

INDIA 2014 AND BEYOND

The year 2014 will be a turbulent year for the Asian region. US pull-out of Afghanistan is assured; the only issue is how badly mauled would they leave the nation and what new power centre will replace the present set up. Options appear to be

          US- Pak – Taliban sponsored government. US withdraw with minimal losses and respectable exit. The population suffers, governance will vary from clan to clan and the tribal leader and his sponsors. East Af will positively be under the influence of Pak and controlled by them to harass influence Kabul powers. Pak will use Al Quiada- Taliban to project its power and influence with support from China.  The west Af will be under Iranian backed leadership, weather its Hektyamar or some other war lord and there would be an uneasy calm between the warlords. Northern Af will be under the influence of tribal leadership sponsored and financed by CAR. The writ of Kabul would be as weak as it always has been. The loyalty and competence of Af police and defence forces will always be suspect. The US will try to involve UN for some monitoring mechanism but leave behind certain surveillance assets. On the whole Af would be chaotic and balkanised post 2014 with powers of influence being controlled by Pak-China; Iran plus; CAR plus; UN may be symbolic coordinator.

          Paks elections would be over by mid this year- the incoming government would be more anti-India; Kashmir will again become the core issue; society radicalisation and islamisation will continue. Pak will continue sponsoring terrorism and keep denying it as always. It will also continue to blackmail the civilised world of its nuclear weapons falling into terrorists hands; need for Kashmir resolution and will be supported by China. Its nuisance value will continue and the world will have to live with it. India needs to stabilise Kashmir on priority which does not seem to be the priority as of now. Otherwise lots of trouble awaits.

          Chinese new leadership would have stabilised by then, would be more confident of power projection and would like to step in the vacuum of US exit but would be wary of Pak Islamic terrorism. It will continue to support and raise the hackles through North Korea and Pak to test the world opinion and response on matters military and strategic.

          India would be in the midst of its national elections and external issues hardly figure in the scheme of things. The defensive mind-set, the Muslim vote bank and weak leadership will not be able to take any strong decision if the need arises.

          India has a very uncertain emerging scenario. With Congress unlikely to come to power, its game plan will be to ensure division and discrediting of main opposition the BJP and encourage the third front to come to power with its support. Alternatively it may form a loose coalition akin to the present. In case the BJP comes to power, the policies will be of the Coalition and the controversial issues may be on the back burner but the policies are likely to be more India-responsive unlike Congress which is more world economy /opinion responsive and uses time delay for problems solution. BJP led alliance would be more focused and deliver on governance and infrastructure- the crying need of the hour. If Gujarat, MP and Chhattisgarh are taken as models than its development alone that will drive the new government. Third front led alliance does not augur too well because the need would be of a strong visionary leadership.

          If India fails to exploit the opportunities unfolding next year, we would have lost strategically and economically and it will not be possible to make up the losses. Our enemies will exploit and we will be left sulking and will be victimised with more terror in the valley and elsewhere. Stakes are too high to be left to some netas and babus; everyone needs to commence contributing so that we succeed.

           To ensure that the Nation is ready for the turbulence of 2014 and beyond, there is an urgent need for a strong leadership in the Centre. A leadership which talks of inclusive development rather divide and rule is the need of the hour. We as responsible citizens need to commence our efforts now to ensure we have the right people. Rather than sulk of poor leadership the need is to influence masses to vote for people. Mine and your individual votes have little relevance; more important is to educate the masses who vote as vote banks. 

VIPASANA: INTERESTING ENCOUNTER

Recently most of the humanity witnessed the largest ever gathering at Mahakumbh, in Allahabad, India. In festivities ranging over two months millions of people took a dip in the Holy water of the Ganga, Yamuna and Saraswati rivers. The belief is that this bath frees the soul from the miseries of daily life and one heads directly to heaven post death. The people who attended apart from the masses had Sanyasis; celebrities; business tycoons; government officials; doctors; lawyers; professors and large number of foreigners. One wonders what was the rationale for the mass of humanity which came for the holy dip. Probably faith but logically it cannot happen that a sinner can ever be frees of his sins just by holy dip. There was a dilemma – all shades of society participating in an even which defies logic.

 Most of the countries(less Islamic countries) including India faith is getting a severe beating. Youth do not visit the weekly event in the church/temple. Rituals are treated as fear addressal system put in place by the religious teachers with a personal agenda. Religion in the present way has lost its relevance and there is a need for something more appealing and logical.

Having visited the Mahakumbh for the Holy dip and spoken to large number of people there, returned reasonably disillusioned. It was then I decided to do research on the evolving religion and our expectations. That’s how Vipasana came into my radar. The sect does not believe in God but does believe in Nature which works on set non-negotiable laws. The laws which work outside in the natural world also operate within. One of the important laws is that one will get the punishment/reward for all the actions done with intent of results. This is the only sect which claims to address the issues of life and beyond logically. It claimed that our mind stores our deeds of the past. By evolving a technique of addressing the sub conscious mind, it claims to have evolved a process which enables freedom from miseries of life.

Vipasana is a technique of using the breathing process to regulate the mind in stage one. Later the mind is used to scan the body for sensations and how to react to them. Apparently evolved by Buddha, it’s a ten day package conducted at the selected places.

Stage one is observing the breathing and focussing on the nose and slowly upper lip area. This carries on for almost three days. Surprisingly after the second day one feels the efficacy of the system. One can feel the mind focussing/fleeing. This was a big achievement and post this one’s control over the mind does undoubtedly become better.

Stage two. Around the fourth day the initiate the students into vipasana. The mind is used to scan the body part by part for sensations of any kind. The logic as propounded by the sect is that it’s the subconscious mind that actually controls our lives. This mind is integrated into the body and there is a continuous dialogue between the two through language termed as sensations, e.g., twitching, pain, stretch, heat, cold, perspiration, pressure plus many more. This is also borne out by the fact that huge amount of activity of our body happens of which are conscious mind is neither aware nor issues any direction, well it’s just happening in our body. The aging; mind clutter; functioning of organs and systems in the body are all on remote mode. This implies that we are not even in touch forget being in harmony with a vital control component of our body. Very scary indeed. Very powerful rationale that would appeal to any logical mind. The process of vipasana enable interacting with the sensations and that is a huge accomplishment by any standards.

The regimen is extremely demanding. It becomes extremely painful if one is not used to sitting on ground that too crossed leg and one is supposed to sit for one hour at a stretch with a short break and repeat. This is an agonising activity which stretches to 12 hours every day. This can be extremely painful and torturous if one is not used to it. In the feedback I have suggested that this be modified otherwise the present generation will be reluctant to attend, hope someone pays heed to it.Me at sixty could not fully benefit due to the inability of the knees and back to take on the agony.

Some amongst us who are disillusioned with the religion and rituals and do not mind experimenting, may like to give a shot subject to one’s ability to manage the torturous regime.

The younger generation must attend, it can have positive impact on the outlook of life and beyond. It will Make A Difference, that is for sure