The year 2014 will be a
turbulent year for the Asian region. US pull-out of Afghanistan is assured; the
only issue is how badly mauled would they leave the nation and what new power
centre will replace the present set up. Options appear to be
US- Pak – Taliban sponsored government. US withdraw with
minimal losses and respectable exit. The population suffers, governance will
vary from clan to clan and the tribal leader and his sponsors. East Af will
positively be under the influence of Pak and controlled by them to harass
influence Kabul powers. Pak will use Al Quiada- Taliban to project its power
and influence with support from China. The west Af will be under Iranian backed
leadership, weather its Hektyamar or some other war lord and there would be an
uneasy calm between the warlords. Northern Af will be under the influence of tribal
leadership sponsored and financed by CAR. The writ of Kabul would be as weak as
it always has been. The loyalty and competence of Af police and defence forces
will always be suspect. The US will try to involve UN for some monitoring
mechanism but leave behind certain surveillance assets. On the whole Af would
be chaotic and balkanised post 2014 with powers of influence being controlled
by Pak-China; Iran plus; CAR plus; UN may be symbolic coordinator.
Paks elections would be over by mid this year- the incoming
government would be more anti-India; Kashmir will again become the core issue;
society radicalisation and islamisation will continue. Pak will continue
sponsoring terrorism and keep denying it as always. It will also continue to
blackmail the civilised world of its nuclear weapons falling into terrorists
hands; need for Kashmir resolution and will be supported by China. Its nuisance
value will continue and the world will have to live with it. India needs to stabilise
Kashmir on priority which does not seem to be the priority as of now. Otherwise
lots of trouble awaits.
Chinese new leadership would have stabilised by then, would
be more confident of power projection and would like to step in the vacuum of
US exit but would be wary of Pak Islamic terrorism. It will continue to support
and raise the hackles through North Korea and Pak to test the world opinion and
response on matters military and strategic.
India would be in the midst of its national elections and external
issues hardly figure in the scheme of things. The defensive mind-set, the Muslim
vote bank and weak leadership will not be able to take any strong decision if
the need arises.
India has a very uncertain emerging scenario. With Congress
unlikely to come to power, its game plan will be to ensure division and
discrediting of main opposition the BJP and encourage the third front to come
to power with its support. Alternatively it may form a loose coalition akin to
the present. In case the BJP comes to power, the policies will be of the
Coalition and the controversial issues may be on the back burner but the
policies are likely to be more India-responsive unlike Congress which is more
world economy /opinion responsive and uses time delay for problems solution.
BJP led alliance would be more focused and deliver on governance and
infrastructure- the crying need of the hour. If Gujarat, MP and Chhattisgarh
are taken as models than its development alone that will drive the new government.
Third front led alliance does not augur too well because the need would be of a
strong visionary leadership.
If India fails to exploit the opportunities unfolding next
year, we would have lost strategically and economically and it will not be
possible to make up the losses. Our enemies will exploit and we will be left
sulking and will be victimised with more terror in the valley and elsewhere.
Stakes are too high to be left to some netas and babus; everyone needs to
commence contributing so that we succeed.
To ensure that the
Nation is ready for the turbulence of 2014 and beyond, there is an urgent need
for a strong leadership in the Centre. A leadership which talks of inclusive development
rather divide and rule is the need of the hour. We as responsible citizens need
to commence our efforts now to ensure we have the right people. Rather than
sulk of poor leadership the need is to influence masses to vote for people.
Mine and your individual votes have little relevance; more important is to educate
the masses who vote as vote banks.
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