China is known for its
unpredictable behaviour with its neighbours wherein the boundaries are
concerned. It has problems with all its neighbours where it feels a future
clash of interest for resources or its domination aspirations. It has a great
skill in time manipulation to its convenience. Keeping the issue alive but
manage the tempo of aggravation depending on factors which are positive fir it
and negative for its adversary. It also focuses on national interests very
strongly- invests without bothering about the regime profile or the world
opinion till it serves its interests. It has created enough irritants like
North Korea and support for regimes which the western world treats as
rogue/hostile. Its financial might and UN permanent membership gives it enough
clout in the form at international level. The mystery about its leadership,
opaque policies, little discussion on matters of strategic nature, its weapon
development budget. R&D is all issues shrouded in mystery.
On the strategic front Chinese have invested at points which
address the future energy needs and SLOC. It uses money and easy finances and
transfer of technology to some to extend its influence. China has thus put in
place a powerful mechanism which enables it control the rogue nations—its more
akin to mafia like support which is based on anti-US policies rather than any
other groupings of positive influence and its manipulating it rather well. It
has Pakistan for India; North Korea for South East Asia; Iran, Syria and Gwader
for West.
On the domestic front China has massive problems. It has a
fragmented society with Han Chinese managing all the best that is available and
others are given second rate treatment. There is a serious problem on financial
and social disparity. The labour and rural populace is having an extremely
stressful and uncertain life. Strikes and unrest is an extremely serious challenge
to the government and if present trend is any indicator things are not under
control. Corruption at high places is massive. Freedom of religion and others which the free
world takes for granted is not available to Chinese Citizens. Tibetans, Muslims
occupying the Southern and Western border are restive and deeply agitated and
suppressed populace. There is great hatred for the Central Government and Han
Chinese. The free world does not come to know about the undercurrents because
the Chinese government controls the electronic, print and cyber media content-
thus what appears in the media is what is approved rather than the truth. Massive
infrastructure and big tickets projects which impresses the rest of the world is
an excellent exercise in PR but it conceals the harsher truth. Its soldiers are
weak to fight the modern combat because defence forces are no more the number
one choice and like any modernizing society youth is avoiding the harsher life.
In addition with one child norm strictly enforced in China for quite sometimes,
no parent desires his son to die or face deprivations. China today is extremely
vulnerable as a society and nation from forces within. Keeping external threats
alive is a compulsion to distract the people from the internal problems.
China will avoid going into a direct confrontation because
it has rogue states to be irritants and keep the target nations involved. It
comes up as a facilitator once things need intervention. Stalemate or large causalities
would be a loss of face for China which would have disastrous ramifications at the
highest levels. However, it will keep
border skirmishes at land and sea alive to maintain its claim and address them
at the opportune time. It also forays into controlled- escalation situation to
analyse the response and improve its bargaining position. China is also
investing very heavily in the next generation warfare, viz, cyber, remote,
robotics, artificial intelligence, space, perception management, missile and anti-missile
and sea denial-access, long range missiles and air and sea craft, high altitude
and strategic move and deployment capabilities. It would like to be in a force
the adversary into submission preferably without firing a shot at best. Should
that not deliver, it would plan to escalate the war so that physical use of
manpower involving hand to hand combat is an exception. There are going to be
big wars where the complete border from Arunachal Pradesh to Kashmir will get
activated with thousands of troops marching across but is likely to happen is localised
border incidents which may be upgraded to skirmishes if it suits there design.
Any response has credibility only if the nation has the
will of impose its might which could be influence, financial, strategic,
alliances and manage the adverse reaction including the UN intervention before
the end result. If this is not achievable then it requires serious
introspection. What should our response be?
At the strategic level alliances with US, Japan, Korea,
Australia- New Zealand, immediate neighbours, CAR, Iran and IOR states for cooperation
in use of resources and threat management would be extremely desirable as
Chinese are threatening all these states/using their strategic assets to
encircle India. Cyber and sea control/denial/surveillance/
patrolling/anti-piracy operations and resources sharing could be the aim.
Need to counter the superiority of the adversary in the new
generation warfare. Sadly India is lagging behind and unable to move ahead. The
problems are well known but need to be addressed.
Border infrastructure to move, employ and sustain forces is
extremely poor as compared to the Chinese. Roads, habitat, airfields and other
war fighting capability need to be created. This will deter the adversary from
ant adventurism.
Capability to move forces and employ them in acceptable
time frame due to high altitude problems of acclimatisation need for lead time
to increase to four to six weeks.
The force multipliers need to be enhanced. From Pakistan
centric threat there is need to refocus on Chinese centric thereat. This would
be huge challenge requiring almost a decade to create the ability.
It is a sad commentary to see the people in power making
dovish, almost humiliating statements when the aggressor has clearly defaulted
and justifying the unethical act. The problem is that the Chinese know that
India today is led by a confused, fragmented leadership and highly vulnerable
and it can get away with its acts without much of ramification. Very sad for a
nation which aspires to be a super power.
Wake up call friends lest it’s too late
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