TRIBALS OF ANDAMAN & NICOBAR

Tribals of A&N islands are in news from time to time. Latest being killing of an American by Sentinelese.

These islands comprising more than 500 small to big, majority uninhabited stretch almost 700 kms North South. Indira Point, southernmost tip is very close To Indonesia & Straight of Malacca.

Jarawas, Onges, East Andamanese, Nicobaris, Sentinelses and Shompens are the original tribes of these islands. Shompens are Mongoloid whereas all others are Negrito origin.

Jarawas Live astride weatern coast of main Andaman island in thickly forested areas with their habitat bounded by Bush Police, preventing any entry into the tribal area. Jarawas were hostile to human presence & kept to themselves with hunting and fishing being primary foods augmented by coconut & forest produce. Could be spotted by low flying helicopters sitting on beach, catching fish or swimming across smaller bays. Hutments made of forest produce were in clusters visible from air. If one flew low, tribals would shoot arrows. Contact with humans was disliked but was established in early 80s. However with Andaman Trunk road cutting across the island,their interaction with humans has become frequent.

East Andamanse & Onges were domesticated way back in 80s. Onges are in Little Andaman and stay together in a small cluster. Some of them have even joined Police & Government service. But majority has become lethargic with beetle nut(supari) about 2 kg per adult per month being consumed.

Nicobarese. Live in Car Nicobar. Were exposed to missionary exploits very early. Hardy people and very good footballers apart from good boatsmen. Almost become part of mainstream.

Shompens inhabiting Great Nicobar Island are extremely shy but quite happy with jungle/tribal life. Their skills with jungle living and surviving are something we all can imbibe from them. Know lot about herbs & shrubs and flaura & fauna. Treat to see them extracting honey from honeycombs.

Sentinelese Live in North Sentinel Island are extremely ferocious about human endeavour to establish contact & very little is known about them. Have been known to fire with bows & arrows to deny access to the island. Its also believed that during tsunami when Car Nicobar was devastated, Sentinelese moved to higher reaches in time and suffered no damage. Probably some sixth sense or other methodology of forewarning.

Should we try to civilise them or let them be? That debate has been going on since long time and shall continue for more time. However, seeing civilised Jarawas, asking for tobacco from vehicles driving on Andaman Trunk road was very sorry state. ( AT road was constructed with labour from Bihar and other Indian states. Since it was prolonged construction and manpower intensive. Jarawas slowly befriended & picked up ills). Or Onges, one has extremely serious doubts about forcing change in their lifestyles. Probably a catastrophic blunder. Solution probably lies in controlled access and harmonising tribals lifestyles with ours and subjecting it to mid course corrections. Scientific approach under guidance of experts with studying impact on various facets over a prolonged periods of time.

Tribal tourism to earn money is an extremely bad idea. Poorly conceived without experts advise, will lead to disaster.

LET THEM BE. INTERVENE ONLY FOR CRISIS MANAGEMENT

KASHMIR PROBLEM: FRESH LOOK

Kashmir is lingering as problem defying solution since Independence. Experts give many reasons starting from two nation theory to Pakistan involvement and numerous others. Number of solutions have been proposed by international/national experts but haven’t found favour with both warring nations.

Today’s situation is bad not its been worse earlier. Though very worrisome issue is that mind space has been occupied by Wahhabi ideology. This implies hatred for non Muslims amongst effected populace and low credibility of whatever Indian state or its agencies do for good of masses.

Its also a fact that majority populace of J&K is not with terrorists or Pakistan or desirous of so called Azadi. In Kashmir valley, populace living ahead of Shamshabari Range are patriots and help army to the extent its asked for. These people go to the extent of sharing intelligence and other anti-national activity coming to their notice. In Kashmir, few disturbed districts where separatists have some clout and can draw huge crowds protesting against India; shouting pro Pakistan slogans or carrying ISIS/Pak flags or throwing stones at SF vehicles or forces or participating in funeral processions. On the face of it, it appears highly anti patriotic but fact is majority is there out of fear of terrorists, making quick buck or jingoism. Even populace participates for similar reasons. Terrorists kidnap boys/girls at will for extorting money; recruitment in terrorist organisations or young women for sexual satisfaction of freelance terrorists.

Government massive economic packages and SF operations termed as WHAM or Winning Hearts And Minds have limited impact.

State government virtually blackmails Centre about grave consequences of tempering with special status or other provisos of GOI. State takes hefty economic subsidy but without any accountability. Indian Supreme Court or GOI rules have limited implementation. In fact state decides which rules to implement and those demanding accountability, transparency or devolution of power or women empowerment are not implemented as not in harmony with Sharia. However Haj subsidy, taking interests on deposits from banks are accepted.

Biggest challenge and one issue where present situation differs from past is MIND SPACE. Radio Muzzafarabad was trying to be Radio Free Europe equivalent beaming anti India propaganda since 70s and many believed it to be true. However with cyber space explosion, rentless anti India propaganda being delivered on individual mobiles through Facebook, what's app and emails. Fake news, doctored videos and misinformation regarding atrocities by Hindus against Muslims are popular themes. All these address emotive vulnerability of masses and feeling of distrust. Separatists & politicians when out of power fully add to Mind space poisoning. Once in power becomes well nigh impossible to change thus stance which at times appears to be antagonistic to Indians but local polity is looking at its vote bank. Fund flow from Centre but vote flow from locals, thus CATCH 22 for all politicians.

Media and locals in government jobs have to ensure personal and family safety and security. After all their roots, relatives and other survival well bing is common with masses. Any antagonistic behaviour implies some one being killed/kidnapped. Release demands huge ransom amounts. So LIVE & LET LIVE principle followed by majority of local service providers even when employed by state.

Wahhabi Islam is autocratic and any dissent is quelled with extreme violence. Augmented with relentless assault on Mind space by Pak media at radio, TV and cyber space, local media and religious teachers/ separatists.

Masses are thus victims of fear psychosis due to inability of state to provide security thereby leaving survival at mercy of terrorists. Second is relentless propaganda by media, religious teachers and Pak based agencies. With Indian authorities indifference to counter terrorists/separatists diktat and initiate stringent action against defaulters defying state, populace is slowly but surely drifting away from India.

Is there a solution?

Of course YES. However it needs clear cut and harmonious long term approach rather than knee jerk or let state handle or crisis based reaction. Central Governments have been quite happy with status quo being ensured by state government.On situstion getting worse, some financial package is announced and thereafter its business as normal. There is huge trust deficit between masses and state.

Some Suggestions

Reoccupy MIND SPACE. Religious leaders must be brought on media and interact with youth through FATWAS or logical discussions to shun violence.

Credible, grass root level youth icons must be encouraged to assume leadership. Abdullah and Muftis plus few other families control valley and have own vested agenda of dynasty and status quo proliferation.

Organise mass populace participating events celebrating local festivals and talent. This be organised and conducted by local schools/colleges or block level. Government should be facilitator only. Encourage sports for boys and girls in schools and colleges in big way.

Modernise Madarsas as being done in UP with NCERT syllabi.

Empower women and girls. Talent exploitation be encouraged.

Local NGOs must come up to reach out to populace for delivery of trust.

Make Panchayat Raj strong as it can deliver people’s expectations.

Use SF as last resort rather than prime weapon to manage state. SF must come to control violence and not be presence just for the heck of it.

Shift focus beyond Srinagar. Healthy competition between Kashmir, Jammu and Leh on various parameters of development with incentives will encourage performance on issues those matters.

State governent must have service employee mix policy of 50:40:10. 50% from the region; 10% from Leh and 40 from other region. Will ensure judiciousness, better trust and balanced

HR must be respected and anti terrorists operations must be hard int based surgical in nature. Local intelligence is key to success. Human and technological intelligence needs major investments. Huge reward potential in mid term.

Harassing people by terrorists/SF for intelligence is greatest fear amongst masses. Both use force, coercion and torture to extract information. Mid night knock is greatest stressors for anyone residing in theses areas.

Encourage Gujars and Bakarwals (living ahead of Shamshabari) to relocate at least during winters in Kashmir urban areas.

Household industry to economically better masses. Mega industries are unsuited as of date but once situation improves, huge potential for agro, pharama and electronics hubs to create world class facilities.

Elected representatives must communicate more and minus paraphernalia of huge security. The present security arrangements for VIPs antagonises common people. Their lives have little relevance. Major cause of drift.

Facilitate non partisan sane voices to emerge collectively.

Encourage trust build up amongst Kashmiris, Jammuites and Leh residents.

Encourage local culture Sufi thought, kashmiryat, excellence, empowerment by incorporating all influential people.

Tough stand on all spreading fear psychosis and drift amongst masses by acting on behest of adversary

Ensure safety and security of masses and proper focus on future of youth

GOI and State has two challenges if there is genuine desire to establish normalcy.

ONE. STOP Drift by reoccupying mind space & regain trust

TWO. Ensure safety of masses by enforcing writ of state.

Indo-Chinese Informal summit meeting at Wuhan

After strained relation post 73 day long Doklam stand-off, two powerful neighbours are making an endeavour to reset way ahead. There are many serious irreconcilable differences as well as huge opportunities. Strategic and economic cooperation and not belligerence is the way ahead.

Chinese arrogance in NSG & Pak terror veto & CPEC going through POK are well known and its difficult for India to fallback on any of the issues. For China CPEC/BRI is most prestigious investment which will hurl China into dominating economic super power. Its fear of SLOC passing through Indian Ocean & Malacca straight with potential of chocking Chinese economy is Chinese biggest fear. Chinese unity is again one of the big fears . Muslims in Uighur in Xingjiang region and Tibet plateau both are restive and Chinese have deployed massive resources to manage discontent through use of brutal physical force, isolating areas/populace from rest of the world and of course forcing demographic change by settling Hans & huge investments. However, these measures are causing backlash with very severe ramifications, in worst case scenarios, may lead to Chinese implosion aka USSR. Finally Chinese booming economy is dependent on exports overwhelming markets through cheap goods via huge subsidies. Its led to local markets closing down leaving millions jobless and huge trade deficit. Acceptable initially but being resented due huge trade imbalances. This has led to dumping penalties and resistance to cheap goods dumping. Chinese economy and unemployment would be hit adding to social unrest and government becoming vulnerable. Chinese investments are also under scanner due stringent conditions, making host nations heavily dependent and vulnerable to economic blackmail. Nations are scared or extremely cautious of Chinese investments having learnt of consequences faced by others. China is seen as brutally demanding and coercive partner treating host nations with contempt.

India is rising economy thus darling of world investors due huge under penetrated markets. Its appetite for consumer goods is unparalleled. India's defence modernisation is huge attraction for world arms manufacturers. Top arms manufacturers are willing to produce in India as well as willing to share cutting edge classified technology in exchange of orders. In soft power, India is miles ahead and it is perceived as caring, benevolent nation.

Chinese domination of Indian Ocean or Asian region is unacceptable to India due its economy and stature. Against Chinese belligerence India desires cooperation and peaceful resolutions of disagreements.

Chinese wish list

India’s support for CPEC/BRI

Less pressure on Pak on terror front

No trade restrictions to Chinese companies in telecommunications.

Control HH Dalai Lama

Be in Chinese camp or Neutral but not anti

Stay away from oil exploration in South China Sea in conjunction with Vietnam

No Brahmos to Vietnam

Indian wish list

NSG membership

No economic activity in POK.

Joint Ventures in Afghanistan.

Quite borders. Pak controlling terror export to India/Afghanistan.

No unfriendly activity on borders

Investments in India.

Opening Chinese markets to Indian firms to ensure balanced trade

There is bound to be discussion on overlapping interests/concerns. Our neighbours being lured by China due to money power causing deep concern/mistrust.

Syria, Iran vs West’s belligerence and managing towards beneficial culmination. West not cancelling Iran’s nuclear deal concern for both.

Middle East oil prices management mechanism too would be discussed.

Challenge

Both leaders are very strong nationalists and wish to take nations to greater heights of success and glory. Cooperation suits both but due to overlapping areas of interest it would demand great statesmanship to come to balanced posture without losing long term strategic interests/allies.

World Oil price management, peace in Middle East, Afghanistan and investments should be doable to advantage of both.

CPEC, Pak & terror, NSG, trade balancing are issues which would demand tough negotiations and give & take. PM Modi would be somewhat vulnerable due elections in 19 to give any concessions which could be exploited as sell out by opposition parties but extremely job creating investments with short term gestation periods would be desirable. Xingping would like access to Indian markets without any Chinese specific restrictions is one area where agreement is doable as win win situation.

Great opportunity with fresh decisions for resetting future through cooperation could pave the way for both rising to top as economic and military powers. Both strong nationalist leaders would aim at that without antagonising own interests is tough challenge

Unfolding Syrian crisis and ramifications for India

US led forces including France and Britain carried out missile attacks on Syrian territory alleging these to be chemical research/ storage & weapon manufacturing facilities. Potentially a very complex and dangerous situation could flow if opposing forces cross red lines.

Syria is a Shia state with Iran & Iraq supporting it on religious lines and has military backing of Russia. Lined up against in addition to US led coalition forces are Saudis land Sunni world. Thus

* Sunni VS Shia both fighting far religious supremacy in the Muslim world with both temporal heads, i.e. Saudis & Iran contesting. It has far reaching ramifications.

* US led forces of France and England against and Russia far Syria.

Russia has deployed advisors and weapons within Syria. It also includes the deadly anti air craft system capable of shooting incoming missiles and supposedly best available in the world as of date. Russia will stand with Syria as its credibility would be at stake should it back down or Syrians face defeat. Prez Putin will not accept and will positively up the ante as worst case scenario.

      Iran has reasonable quality forces and high quality terrorist organisation called Hezbollah operating from Lebanon targeting Israel periodically.

      Should Hezbollah target Israel, then the situation becomes extremely complex. Complete Middle East including powerful militias being unleashed, would, in worst case scenario, set the stage of dreaded Clash of Civilisation theory or next big war engulfing one and all. With oil production under threat it will lead to economic catastrophe for all economies of the world.

     US & western powers do not wish use of chemical gases on Syrian populace opposing Prez Asad Syria but supported by west. Empirically, US has minimal credibility about its claims of Syria using chemical weapons. It claimed it had evidence against Saddam Hussein whilst attacking Iraq but it was never proven though Saddam was toppled leading to chaos in Iraq and rise of most dreaded terrorist organisation ISIS. Prez Trump, Prez Macron and PM May are facing severe crisis on domestic front and this being a ploy to divert attention is not ruled out.

     Western Alliance has fortunately targeted only chemical weapons associated facilities through precision weapons thereby minimising collateral damage. It ensures situation is not aggravated wherein Russia is forced to get involved which could be extremely dangerous. Russia too would like to ensure Syrian regime and Prez Asad survive and western supported forces don’t become excessively powerful. Thus a stalemate suits all.

            With Russia & Shia world on one side and US on the other. The ramifications would be extremely severe for US war in Afghanistan. With Pakistan already moving into Chinese cradle , US would have antagonised all neighbouring states capable of ensuring stable Afghanistan. That in all probability may not happen. Antagonised neighbours would like US to get struck in Afghanistan quagmire and suffer humiliation before pulling out as it happened in Vietnam. Unstable Afghanistan would be bad for India and its policy of cutting Pakistan to size by using Chahbar to access CAR and Afghanistan.  Any setback for US in Afghanistan would help China to move in and occupy the vacuum much to the disadvantage of India and rest of the world.

     India has friendly relations with all and has reasons for peaceful region. Our dependence on oil and huge populace working there. Neutral stand is the only option. India” s relations with all countries are very friendly, it should behind the scenes play as a moderator to prevent escalation.

     Its very complex situation in Syria with potential of going out of control with disastrous ramifications. One hopes Prez Trump can control the situation through visionary statesmanship. Should he fail, US will suffer huge embarrassments in Middle East and Afghanistan. India has big stakes but little influence and not in a position to take sides. Our interest lies in reasonably stable region.

PAK-RUSSIA-CHINA NEXUS: OPPORTUNITY INDIA

RUSSIA – PAKISTAN- CHINA NEXUS: OPPORTUNITY INDIA

Pakistan having been cornered by US & its allies on terror front is looking far options with the other camp, viz., China & Russia. Whereas China has been arming Pakistan defence forces including nuclear as counter weight & proxy against India, Russia seems to be new player in the game. Prez Trump coming down hard on China, Russia & Iran in addition to Pakistan is leading to new alignments in this part of region. With US looking for a way out of Afghanistan, others China, Russia, Iran, Pak and of course India wish to occupy the space to be vacated.

Russia, Iran & Pakistan would like US to be stuck in Afghanistan like Vietnam- draining its economy with no honourable exit. China is looking at strategic location & mineral wealth yet to be exploited in continental shelf of Afghanistan. Iran & Pak wish to increase influence due religious affinity across the border and strategic depth. India is looking at pro/neutral Afghanistan & Pak getting struck with terrorist organisations created by it. Pak needs deployment space for these venomous generation mentally trained to kill for Islam. Once Afghanistan stabilised, India would be next deployment ground for these terrorists. Present state of controlled violence in Afghanistan suits all as it ensures no single nation dominates Afghanistan to disadvantage of others. So its me or none.

India having moved some what away from Russia towards US for arms acquisitions, Pakistan and may be even Russia sees an opportunity in this changing scenario. Pakistan wants to acquire world class military hardware from Russia where China is lacking today. Tanks, helicopters and long range anti missile systems are on Pakistan wish list. With oil prices stabilising, Russia facing pressure from US and western Europe would be looking to reboot its economy. Should Pakistan be willing to purchase hardware in large quantities Russians are likely to oblige.

Question then arises, from where will Pakistan raise huge amounts for procurements? US cash hen is nearly dried up, Europe and other world bodies certainly won’t oblige and China won’t fund or will demand stringent conditions. Saudi Arabia has been magnanimous in the past but with Saudi economy under pressure and Saudi kingdom looking at opening up, may not be as magnanimous. In-house Pakistan economy is nearly broke and it can’t afford to purchase huge amount of weapons at non- subsidised rates.

Pakistan would be in a quandary to raise funds and should these be available, India must encourage or force it to procure more hardware as India itself is looking at mega spends in next few years. India must officially weakly protest but behind the scenes nudge Russia to sell whatever Pakistan’s wish list is, thereby ensuring its economic collapse. Imploding China would be huge disaster for China as CPEC/Gwader collapses taking down Chinese dreams of independence from vulnerable Sea Lines of Communication through Indian Ocean and its policy of strings of hostile basis around India collapses too.

Great opportunity for India to decimate Pakistan; diminish Chinese clot In Pakistan and Russia benefits economically. Iran; Afghanistan benefit immensely and India gets land route via Pakistan to Afghanistan and CAR.

Biggest challenge after Pakistan collapse would be managing Pakistan & terrorists network in Pakistan and radicalised youth which pose big threat. Saudi Arabia leading the way due to its moral authority of religious head of Sunni Islam to transform society to liberal, de denuclearised Pakistan would be win-win for mankind.

AFGHANISTAN: EMERGING POWER PLAY

Afghanistan has been historically a nation which has never been enslaved. However others have repeatedly tried unsuccessfully however this struggle carries on. Nomadic and hardy tribals; extremely hostile terrain and weather conditions; underdeveloped but strategically located. It connects Asian region with rest of the western world by land route. Its location close to China & Russia makes it suitable encircling cum surveillance base. It reportedly has huge quantum of untapped strategic materials reserves.

Anyone establishing permanent base or stable & sovereign aligned Afghanistan is unacceptable to China/Russia/Pakistan and Iran. Thus super power play continues making Afghanistan into permanent battle ground with opponents changing.

None succeeds because Pakistan considers it to be its strategic depth on western side and if Indian influence goes up, Pakistan perceives its decimation. It encourages non state actors by providing safe sanctuaries, finances, training, motivation, arms, leadership and takes care of all other issues. Key to peace in Afghanistan lies with Pakistan. It uses terrorists motivated with Wahhabi ideology of Jihad & HOORS await in heaven. With China now sole financier cum all weather friend of Pakistan, it will only embolden Pak as Chinese don’t wish to see US/Indian influence in this region. Pakistan will continue fermenting trouble till Afghanistan has a regime loyal to it alone.

US unfortunately has managed to antagonise possible allies capable of countering unholy China-Pak nexus. Russia and Iran encircling Afghanistan from North and West having loyal tribes are interested in peaceful Afghanistan as restive tribals adversely impact neighbouring tribes. Not healthy sign as there is apprehension of terror spreading to such areas. US by default has only India on its side but reluctant to commit military forces due to domestic compulsions.

Line up in Afghanistan is US & reluctant India vs Pakistan nudged by China to ensure US fails & Indian influence minimised. Iran & Russia would be happy to see US being defeated due to animosity created by US. This new alignment of forces doesn’t augur well for Afghanistan to become functional peaceful nation in the near future

SMARTPOWER

China uses a term known as CMP or Comprehensive Military Power. It implies totality of war waging resources including non military. In fact, its more relevant when it comes to deciding outcome of war.

Indian military hierarchy is thinking of two to two and half front war. Should that fructify, this would be horrible scenario and indicate disaster on all fronts of CMP. Nations must ensure if there is war, we fight as alliance against the adversary rather than adversaries combining to fight against us.

Indian thinkers, on the other hand, focus on quantities. Numbers of men and equipment. Its small part of the whole and would be decisive only in minor skirmishes or isolated, locally confined battles.

In terms of defence budget and quantity of military equipment Chinese have huge advantage, however, in terms of quality India does have an advantage to large extent. Border infrastructure and cutting edge technology like Cyber; AI, Space, stealth etc. India is a laggard.

There is this little understood or calculable factor called the SOFT POWER & SMART POWER. This is non aggressive invasion attacking the mind in a manner that victim doesn’t even comes to know he is under attack. In fact he is a willing partner as its WIN-WIN situation. Influence of US brands- foods; clothing; healthcare; movies computer games etc is worldwide. Apart from willing usage it brings with the concept of materialism; cultural, democracy,free society, dissent, crtisicing/challenging state policies. A thought which is alien to most cultures, thereby it threatens the cohesiveness of society. For Communists or other closed/dictatorial societies this posed biggest threat with high probability of implosion/ coup de tat for powers controlling the destiny of the nation.

India has massive edge in soft power sector. India’s cultural heritage; yog birthplace of major religions, foods, diaspora, cinema, IT might ,freedom of citizen and press; cricket and latest being ISA with HQ in India are pillars of soft power. Even Chinese pro government paper, Global Time, accepted the fact that India has been able to better exploit its soft power. Strengthening of diaspora and furthering our soft power is a strategy capable of delivering huge. Goodwill amongst masses even where state may be pro China but masses more comfortable with India. Even China has huge following for Yog/Bollywood.

Every democratic government and autocratic to some extent are sensitive to people’s sentiments. This where soft power plays crucial role of influencing minds of hostile power. Its lie terrorists sleeper cell getting activated just at the right time. Very potent weapon of future and few nations have yet harnessed or orchestrated this dimension. With cyber power almost exploding, capability of soft power gets further influenced. In fact, very interestingly, where autocratic governments try to block free information flow this offers credible option.

This force to be powerful must be invested as long term measure. Diaspora being focal point, our win-win ideas should slowly creep into minds of youth and others in the country of interest. This can be called SMART POWER, i.e., converting soft power through proper planning and prolonged implementation focussing on PEOPLE to be capable of influencing their governments.

EMERGING CHINESE THREAT

Presidents Trump is quite clear in his approach, America First; if it antagonises its traditional allies , then so be it. Benevolence attitude since demise of Britain as dominant power has taxed US economy heavy and no previous President was bold enough to take such varying stand but Trump is different and being devoid of any baggage, he takes decisions best or US. Cutting down/reducing some strategic military ventures’ liability would burden many free loaders.

Rising China is desirous of occupying space being ceded by US. China has the financial might and slowly developing cutting edge military technologies by investing huge in its Academics & research establishment. Being quite ruthless its been stealing technologies from all over without caring for ethics and legalities. This has helped China to leap frog in military technology. Thus it has the potential to fill the void.

China’s rise is scaring most of the world nations used to international laws and treaties for its conduct and resolving disputes through consensus whereas Chinese prefer use force to ensure its right of way. Chinese rise is scary and causing quite a lot of discomfort amongst all. China sees India as biggest threat at regional level and has potential of creating powerful alliances to counter Chinese threat. It would aim to keep India embroiled with Pakistan and creating crisis or raking up irritants on regular basis, through proxies in South Asia.

China has its huge vulnerabilities too. Rogue nations of North Korea & Pakistan will keep on embarrassing China on its high moralistic ground whenever it takes. Tibet & Xingziang are restive and use of brute force attracts adverse opinion unacceptable to powerful nation. Islamic terror is creeping in spite of drastic measures initiated by China. Slowing economy; rising inflation; unemployment; demanding population and corruption are very severe problems which are going to grow in magnitude. Few genuine friends, unholy alliances and total mistrust hallmark of Chinese international relationships. Economically its blood sucker with interests rates that would cripple any economy.

Chinese have some peculiarities.

One, supremely egoistic with tremendous pride in its past and desires to dominate the world.

Second extremely patient during negotiations. In fact masters in using time to cause attrition on opponent by shear delays.

Thirdly its extremely sensitive to dissent and any threat to its unity. Tibet, Xingxiang or Islamic terror could dismember China. Its really scared of these forces.

Lastly it uses mind game and total resources, economic, blackmail, sanctions etc to force favourable decision without combat, war being last resort which is best avoided. AND IT RESPECTS STRENGTH.

India has plenty of options without confronting China directly militarily. Alliances with own modern and powerful defence forces is the key.

Indian economy is rising and Chinese slowing down. Any trade restriction would hurt China real bad adding to its unemployment and dissent amongst masses with severe ramifications.

Disturbed POK and Western Pakistan hampering CPEC. China is investing billions to access Gwadar and Middle East Oil so that its vulnerable SLOC/ Jugular at extremely vulnerable Malacca straight are taken care of to a large extent. India can ensure turbulence with Afghanistan/US/Iran aiding. Drag China to ICJ for construction activity in POK which is our area under illegal occupation of Pakistan.

Economically weak, impoverished and internally unstable Pakistan with radicals; mullahs and terrorists calling shots would be nightmare of Chinese ambitions of safe Gwader passage. With intelligent covert action it can be Chinese Vietnam experience.

HH Dalai Lama and Buddhist world over congregating in India from time to time and Buddhist tourist from Japan, Myanmar and other countries visiting monasteries and HH would be great pain for China. An issue with tremendous soft power potential dreaded by China. Budhists in Nepal and Myanmar must be encouraged to interact with Tibetian Buddhists, great soft power application with very positive ramifications. Annual international Buddhist meetings in India under tutelage of HH Dalai Lama would energise and unite this community.

SAARC nations economic integration on all soft power issues. China trying to control governments through economic lucrative offerings but masses more in harmony with India. This must be further strengthened. Masses are what matters.

Above measures demand proactive aggressive orientation by our strategic planners. The present tendency of Meekly Defensive approach is disastrous giving all options to adversary. Time for offensive defensive; use of mind; exploiting Chinese traits and using our massive soft power to deter China from any war.

Indian army must have adequate contingency plans to deter any localised skirmishes by quickly mobilising resources by having quality satellite/human intelligence to ensure timely and effective response.

In any hostile activity with Chinese, AIM SHOULD BE DETERRENCE. Loss of face is traumatic for Chinese establishment and it would avoid any confrontations where outcome would be a stalemate. It would resort to border skirmishes on plea of border demarcation issues or at best localised conflicts with threats of escalation wherein weal political leadership may loose its nerves.

On the seafront, navy is already into quality alliances with other regional navies and ensuring 24×7 monitoring of hostile shipping activity.

India can’t and must not fight 2/3 front war, its sure recipe for disaster. Our polity and diplomatic force has to ensure this does not happen. Domination at sea and deterrence on land and air/space/cyber and emerging frontiers adequately meets our defence needs of territorial integrity and safeguarding areas of interests. Nation must invest in AI and other emerging dual edge cutting technology. Soon technology and not brute military force will decide winning side, so combination of lean and thin army coupled with powerful technology must be the way ahead.

MANAGING INDO- PAKISTAN RELATIONSHIP BETTER

Pakistan appears to be continuously troubling India in-spite of its unilateral goodwill gestures like Most favoured Nation status and being magnanimous in releasing water from Himalayan riparian rivers of Jammu & Kashmir. But Pakistan refuses to reciprocate positively.

Pakistan also has successfully managed to control escalation levels as deemed appropriate to its national interests with India being poor & apologetic responder in both in quality & quantum of response. Since its not being hit hard where it matters, Pakistan doesn’t care about human loss of life or en mass movement to deeper areas to avoid shelling.

What is that Pakistan achieves with zero sum behaviour?

In Pakistan Army calls the shots and its survival by being perceived by masses as the only saviour that can protect Pakistan from hostile India, thus its ensured no politician becomes powerful enough to change this perception. Radicalised army, mullahs indoctrination of illiterate youth provides enough raw material as canon fodder foolishly believing about HOORS awaiting in ZANNAT.

Pakistan has successfully leveraged US; Saudi Arabia;OPEC; Islamic countries oil wealth and of late Chinese for aid/loans/grants on various pretexts. But most are reluctant to fund Pakistan army any more, more so after US coming down hard though Chinese are trying to make up to some extent. But Chinese are known to be tough loan givers unlike Americans.

China has been trying to arm/finance Pakistan only to the extent that it keeps being a nuisance to India thereby bogging it down to regional level. Win win for both.

Internal situation in Pakistan is quite precarious. Extreme poverty; military flourishing but masses deprived, mullahs wealthy and powerful but youth unemployable being illiterate and unskilled. Panjabis domination is leading to resentment amongst all other provinces- Sind; FATA; Baluchistan; Pakistan Occupied Kashmir are rising in rebellion against Islamabad. Mullahs backed huge armed groupings not under control of any central authority keep using violence for own agendas. Its amazing how & why has Pakistan survived for so long with such mega problems? Army has exploited this fear of masses by ensuring weak polity and reasonably understanding judiciary.

Pakistan army has kept alive threat of nuclear weapon usage thereby ensuring neutralisation of conventional inferiority & decision dilemma for Indian planners. Since world is extremely sensitive of nuclear weapons, Pak believes India will not to go for full fledged conventional war. Pakistan has put India on defensive & embroiled in internal affairs of counter insurgency. Sorry state for any army. Master stroke by any standards.This carefully nurtured state of affairs has led to perception that Army is the only saviour. Pakistan grand strategists need to be commended for boxing into state of helplessness and our strategists failure to generate suitable befitting response.

Pakistan army for its survival must keep Kashmir & terror in J&K alive. This is the root cause of the Indo-Pak problem.

Does India has option or it must continue to bleed?

Line of control/Border trans border shelling was the norm in early 2000 till AB Vajpayee government put an end to it. Killings on civilians and uniformed personal on both sides with zero-sum results was stopped by statesman PM Vajpayee but seems to be restarting. It achieves nothing and not an option.

Pakistan army image and/or economy being hurt are the only ways to moderate army’s behaviour.

Covert action; water disruption; supporting dissenting elements in PO/Baluchistan; isolating Pakistan at world faura & strangulating terror funding simultaneously extending reciprocal development & technological assistance to ensure leverage. Development and border peace will ensure people’s change of perception about their army. More facilities to aggrieved families; educational scholarships to POK & Balochis; raking up human rights violations In Baluchistan; helping Balochis to take Pakistan army to International Court of Justice for missing masses.

Indian politicians and masses must cooperate with Government rather than demanding immediate retaliation.

Defeat Pakistan army through Mind game as propagated in Gita by driving wedge between masses & army. Pacify LC/Border and initiate indirect actions enumerated in this article.

Indian Society : Way ahead

We are living in a very interesting but contradictory times. Tremendous materialistic progress but degraded values. Excessive greed, manipulation and little in terms of compassion or charity is order of the day. Some of the other major flaws are:-

* Little creativity but great in rote.

* Inadequate leadership but obedient followers.

* Blame Karmas/God for misfortune but refuse to change/alter oneself

* Criticise all but without giving intelligent alternative.

* Visit temples frequently with wish a TO DO bribing him minor gratification. Filthy temples with long lines of beggars but little effort by devotees to cleanse system. Excessive greed with little charity.

* Surrendering before stronger & expecting someone else- God/Government to help

* Oldest religion with tremendous inherited wisdom but worst in implementation.

* Goddesses controlling all virtues but women folk ill-treated

* Preach World is one family but little contribution towards society upliftment

* Believe in AATMA but treat other kinds of life forms with disdain

* Quote texts but few have mastered these

* Wise men in all fields of arts/science & warfare but study western experts.

*Though great heritage but inferiority complex leading to be defensive about own past till approved by others.

* Too concerned about others’ opinions without taking stand even where right.

* Excessive status quo and strong resistance to change things including thought Scientific temperament absent

* Age old rituals/suspicions/Gurus have predominant control in life

* Mastering mind taught by our rishis but few practise the art for exploiting potential to serve humanity

*Me, my family, my clan, my religion -that is priority. India enslaved for long periods of history & divisive tendencies still continue

* Too tolerant & forgiving. Don’t stand for right & forgive wrongdoers. Manipulators taken advantage of it.

*Excessive populace with excessive huge on all limited natural resources.

Our history is of divided, enslaved nation which suffering transforming from riches to poverty. This is still happening with strong internal/external forces augmenting each other. We need to initiate some of the measures given below, lest enslaved again.

*Get rich.

*Cleanliness of society, environments from known ills including filth and corruption.

* Scientific temper and creativity. Relearning our ancient wisdom; putting that through wisdom of modern means where available. Keep reinventing & value addition to Tog/Ayurveda/Meditation/Aartis in temples & other rituals

*Healthy positive debate based on knowledge & accepting dissenting views as part of knowledge evolution.

* Pride in our own Nation/society/wisdom/spirituality/diversity/festivities

* Celebrate life. Indians are known for enjoying life through dance/dramas/music/songs/festivals/religious trips/foods etc

* Shun negative media and political leadership dividing society

* Export trained human resource. Indian sub continent can not support unlimited population. Western nations and Russia in desperate need of skilled manpower.

* Encourage charity. Sikhs and Islam encourage charity in big way. We need to follow

* Eradicate caste cancer and associated ills.

* Care for nature by encouraging harmonious living.

Time has come for India to become strong as society as our other parameters are moving upwards like economy and military might. Weak/divided society encourages enslavement- must never happen again. Enough of slavery