CHINESE LADAKH TRANSGRESSION & RAMIFICATIONS

China after conducting its exercises in Tibet, rather than de induct to mainland moved it closer to Indo - Tibet border. Huge force level had two Motorised divisions plus all or-batted units required to wage war.

China amassed its forces at Depsang plain just across DBO & Galwan valley just across Shyok - Gulwan river junction. Experts have opined that the movement by the Chinese at the Depsang plains was serious. People's Liberation Army is close to a place known as Bottleneck. This is the Rakki and Jeewan rivulets are where there was a stand-off in 2013.

Its believed that any movement westwards by the PLA can threaten the Dabruk-Shyok-DBO road and the airfield. Further movement of additional PLA troops over the past one week at the Depsang plains, further north of Galwan towards the Karakoram pass. This has raised concerns as the Daulat Beg Oldie is less than 25 kilometres from the Chinese posts.

Chinese had also increased presence at Pangong Tso & opposite Demchok plains in defensive posture. Reportedly Chinese soldiers & allied wherewithal are already present in POK to construct dams & allied infrastructure.

Pakistan was relocating terrorists in POK Pakistan was also activating LOC almost daily with very heavy artillery shelling to engage our posts and thereby facilitate terrorist induction.

It thus emerges

Large force presence opposite Depsang plains

Significant force level in Galwan River bed & heights around, with habitat & road construction activity

Pangong Tso lake had reasonable amount of force

Across Demchok plains, Chinese were deployed to absorb any counter by Indian forces

POK had defence personnel with huge engineering equipment pre located available for any strike from Western side

Pakistan army was trying to keep LOC troops fully active with artillery firing to facilitate terrorist induction.

Chinese President Xi had declared himself as President for life & dreamed of making China into No One super power by dethroning USA. President Trump was coming down heavy on Chinese economy which was hurting China & post corona unleashing its gone worse with many MNCs moving out of China. With 300 million unemployed, massive unrest wasn’t ruled out by Xi. Chinese aggression in Hong Kong, Taiwan & South China Sea plus Ladakh was perceived by rest of the world as treacherous & untrustworthy behaviour not in harmony with civilised world values. Its threatening nations with consequences if anyone voiced opinions against China either on Corona or 5 G Chinese companies. It had really let loose its plan to usurp power whilst world was busy with corona catastrophe by using military & economic leverage.

India on the other hand was totally busy in winter stocking of troops deployed in high altitude areas & fighting corona. Chinese fifth column comprising media, journalists, intellectuals, politicians & many veterans were fully active in announcing Indian army defeat & Chinese having won decisive victory by occupying huge chunks of strategic territory. And many not only disbelieved Indian version but tried best to discredit Indian version by misinterpreting satellite imageries or quoting reliable sourced on conditions on anonymity. China support was full & Indian govt the punching bag till nationalists punctured the narrative & truth emerged albeit slowly.

In fact complete free world was totally fighting Chinese unleashed corona rather unsuccessfully with WHO contributing to misery through misinformation by behaving like Chinese pawn.

By end May Chinese stage was set to unfold its grand strategy of expansionism through salami slicing in Ladakh. Interdict DBO road around Galwan. Using Depsang force to capture DBO/deny airfield thereafter link up with Shaksham valley/POK whilst maintaining pressure at Pangong Tso & Demchok. POK based military force starts operation from West to join Depsang plain thrust. With DBO captured/isolated Indian position & military situation would have been precarious with defeat as the only option. The terminal state would have been ore humiliating than 62 defeat.

The plan couldn’t succeed for two reasons, one is super fast build up by India using road & air resources. Second was extremely gallant action by 16 Bihar on 15/16 Jun & reasonably stubborn response in Pangong Tso earlier. 16 BIHAR Galwan action though tactical in nature had massive strategic ramifications with condemnation world wide & the tide turned.

Strong response by PM & USA, Russia & rest of free world standing with India checkmated Chinese design totally. In fact focus shifted to South China Sea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Uighur & Tibet.

However, this withdrawal or whatever one wishes to call it, as temporary, Chinese transgressions shall continue till LAC defined, which China is disinterested. Hasn’t given maps of its perception & our babudom completed twenty plus rounds of talks. Poodle faking. India must be prepared for such Chinese actions till it gives a befitting reply. India can’t match China militarily or economically thus need to get into alliance of like minded nations to counter China.

India could undertake following steps to counter untrustworthy neighbour hell bent on consuming large areas belonging to weaker nations. Suggested actions given below

Force permanent deployment on LAC by Chinese

ITBP under local operational commander

Relocate Tibetans from McLeod Ganj to Ladakh

Due respectability to HH Dalai Lama

Demand Tibet being independent Country

Raise Uighur human rights issue; support Taiwan & other nations in that area

Get into strategic economic & military alliance against China to counter its expansionism on land & sea

Let Indian companies take on infrastructure contracts even if slightly costlier

Replace China worldwide as manufacturing destination

Curtail fifth columnists or those openly supporting China but belittling India

Baluchistan & POK must be addressed to curtail Pakistan terror

China should be debarred from permanent membership of UNSC

Debar China from Tokyo Olympics 2021

China has a dream of its position & aims to achieve at any cost. Its failed attempt of 2020 has been an unmitigated blunder. Its lost too much of trust but be rest assured China is a nation focussed on its national interests, values or methods are inconsequential. India whilst developing itself economically & militarily must get into economic & strategic alliance to safeguard our future interests.

COUNTERING BELLIGERENT CHINESE RISE

China is economically & military an extremely powerful nation as of date. Over a period of time it has used coercion & financial clout to subjugate to weak democratic/autocratic leaders; dominated influencing world bodies, media houses/opinion makers in democratic nations & funded Universities/political parties with millions of dollars.

Present Chinese leadership unleashed corona across the globe & whilst world was fighting virus it initiated its expansionist agenda for capturing territory in neighbourhood both at land & sea.

None of its neighbours including Russia or India can counter Chinese military individually. Smaller nations of South China Sea or economic giant Japan too can not challenge China all by itself. Chinese STRENGTH is MILITARY & its WEAKNESS ECONOMY

Chinese rise is dangerous due treachery & its violation of treaties as convenient to it. Its today the EVIL empire – hated, untrustworthy & feared. It can use brute force without caring for world bodies or values followed by democracies. Subjugation of Tibet or inhumane treatment of Uighur Muslims or use of excessive force against Hongkong & using force to scare Taiwan, Vietnam, Philippines & other smaller nations. Creating trouble in Myanmar or seizing Nepalese territory, it has created many enemies.

Chinese friends incl North Korea & Pakistan(available to highest bidder aka HIRAMANDI tradition) Almost colonised will do Chinese bidding totally. Restive Baluchistan & POK would keep Pakistan armed forces fully committed.

Chinese vulnerabilities are massive. Unemployment, restive population of captured territories, own youth/population/veterans demanding freedom & accountability. Chinese line of communication to fight India or assist Pakistan pass through Tibet/Xinjiang restive regions & its shipping getting oil from Middle East passes through narrow Malacca straight, easily choked from A&N islands.

Since China is posing threat to existing world order it would be prudent to form an alliance to counter belligerent rise of evil empire. India is one fulcrum capable of challenging China across Himalayas, however, OIC & CAR nations need to join to save Uighur Muslims from Chinese torture. Both these organisations combined have adequate influence to restraint Pakistan & push from Western side threatening CPEC/Karakoram Highway/Aksai Chin/POK. This push aims to liberate East Turkmenistan (present Xinjiang) & Tibet. With India & this land based alliance ties down huge Chinese forces in maintaining Lines of Communication/logistic support & weaken its capability in South China Sea.

US led QUAD to block Malacca & SCS & curtail oil flow from Middle East. Logistic bases at Diego Garcia/A&N Islands/Guam in Pacific to support. This operation ensures smaller nation

are free from fear of Bully & SCS available to all for shipping.

Prolonged deployment astride Himalayas along CAR- Indo – China - Myanmar border & OIC posturing from West threatening East Turkmenistan.

Grand strategy must be THREATENING MILITARILY but DECIMATING ECONOMICALLY whilst restive assets in Tibet/Xinjiang/mainland China add to Chinese miseries.

Chinese economic collapse ensure

Present aggressive leadership replaced

Behaviour in harmony with international norms

Neutralised as military threat

Tibet, Xinjiang, Macau, Mongolia, Hongkong & Taiwan independent states

Harmonious & peaceful world

CHINESE MISADVENTURE IN LADAKH & POSSIBLE END RESULTS

Whilst India was busy fighting Chinese unleashed Corona virus, this treacherous & backstabbing nation transgressed into certain territories in Ladakh region. Violating all treaties & protocols it assaulted Indian soldiers with iron rods & barbed wire made instruments capable of severe injuries incl fatalities. India lost a CO & twenty men but Chinese losses unknown because its afraid of justifying dead. It occupied few other points as well.

Whilst talks of mutual withdrawal were ongoing it has amassed its war waging wherewithal at number of places but so has India reinforced its forces with tanks, artillery guns & trained manpower.

Reasons for Chinese transgression, claimed by experts, are many. These include

Infrastructure development close to LAC negating Chinese build up superiority

Fear of India capturing POK & Aksai Chin

Perceived threat to CPEC

Change of status of J&K

Teach India a lesson

Capture territories as part of Slamy slicing

Divert attention from internal problems. Unemployment, economy etc

Announce to the world China has arrived

China had amassed troops & war fighting resources in Tibet as part of annual exercise. Instead of falling back, these were inducted into Galwan valley & some other places. Most of the mundane issues have been discussed in national/international media with everyone giving his own assessment. Its worth noting that Indian army or government has not shared much information; China doesn’t share much other than propaganda material. Truth is known to armies or nations at apex level rest all is in speculation or professional analysis. Danger of this narrative is, in satellite image reading experts vary from deep movement into Indian territory to crossing. Thus credibility question mark.

Chines media initially threatening India with war dire consequences, be prepared to fight with Nepal/Pakistan & China. Later, after Galwan encounter, there was total change. Quoting Mahatma Gandhi; don’t align with USA, India China can rise together etc but it kept on building its forces across LAC all along Indo – Chinese border. During India DM’s visit to Russia for 75 anniversary victory parade, India requested for additional weapons on priority, which were promised. Indian RM refused to interact with Chinese counterpart, though mouthpiece Global Times announced meeting was on & then it requested Russia not to give weapons to India, it was declined. China continues to expand area of flash points though being challenged by Indian army at every point.

Indian army is extremely strong in mountain warfare & its air force superior to China. Airfield locations give clear advantage to India. India has matching armoured & surveillance capabilities & superior air mobility & artillery. China on the other hand has better missiles & cyber capability plus huge influencing assets in Indian media/political parties/veteran journalists. But its has long logistic lines, little infrastructure to deploy in strength to man LAC plus extremely vulnerable border areas both Tibet & Xinjiang.

At the international level, China is accused & isolated on unleashing corona; free world leaders wish to examine facts & probably recommend punitive measure incl economic sanctions. Its belligerence in Hongkong, Taiwan, South China Sea, Japan & Vietnam has been taken cognizance of & certainly not being accepted; its economy already squeezing will suffer huge if manufacturing moves out of China.

USA has already moved its aircraft carriers to South China Sea, its relocating forces from Germany to Asia to counter belligerent China. India has moved its warships from Arabian Sea to Bay of Bengal monitoring Malacca straight – connecting Pacific to Indian Ocean. Quad US, India, Japan & Australian navies should be moving in due course & Japanese are deploying missiles capable of countering hostile Chinese activity.

Options for India

Military domain. Build up so as not to get surprised

Contain transgression

Occupy heights elsewhere in disputed areas,should PLA refuse to return from areas occupied by it

Keep PLA engaged till winters, General WINTER will destroy PLA

Keep POK option open, should PLA withdraw prematurely

Reserves tied down, can’t influence South China Sea operations

Don’t cede any territory or fresh claims

Coordinate with US & Quad operations in South China Sea & activate assets in China, Hongkong, Taiwan, Japan & Korea. Extremely vulnerable logistic support lines.

Economy collapsing is better option as military action could rally people with Xi Jingping; economic disaster will destroy him without round fired

Desirable end states

Xi jingping dethroned by his people & China collapses aka USSR

India would be delighted if Aksai Chin & POK rejoin India. CPEC dead. Tibet independent – HHDL returns honourably back to Tibet. India would be satisfied if LAC demarcated & converted into International Border.

Free world led by USA. Satisfied if force not used against Hongkong & other nations of South China Sea & free passage assured to all ships. China behaves responsibly as per international norms. Replace Xi jingping with moderate leader.

Dependence on China reduced significantly

China would like to emerge as sole super power dethroning USA & thereafter rule the world through its values system by dominating all word decision making bodies. Increase its territories by integrating Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan & occupy Northern parts of Ladakh to reduce threat to CPEC & other assets in POK/Aksaichin/Xinjiang.

INDIAN DEFENCE FORCE AND POLITISISATION

Indian defence forces were organised from local kings forces to organised national force by British during its rule over India. Indian defence force apart from securing hostile frontiers with Afghanistan were also used for conquering kings who were unwillingly to join British government in India. Since defence forces were required to fight & kill Indian citizens , fighting on the other side presented a loyalty dilemma. Thus British officers commanding Indian forces, Cantonments away from civilians & almost complete infrastructure to sustain and ensure quality life with out mixing up with common citizens was put in place.

Freedom fighters, other leaders fighting for independence had significant potential of influencing mind of soldiers which could lead to insubordination/mutiny against British against Indian citizens. Defence forces came under Governor General, who exercised all power with some sort of power delegated to natives. APOLITICAL army ensured a virtual wall between British, the rulers and Indians, the ruled. Suited British and they ensured by giving special status to defence personnel. Thus keeping forces away from politics was crucial for survival of British rule in India.

ICS, Police & other central services ensuring tax collections & furthering British rule were treated with special incentives. Degradadtion of Indian heritage, dividing society on various lines & introduction of English language ensured divide between Native & British & their tools for governance always existed giving inferiority complex to natives. And it worked wonderfully well for over a century.

In 47 when India became independent, every tool of governance, changed to be in harmony with new masters, elected representatives, change attitude to civilians. Infact from Master-slaves equation,it changed to US & OURS. For some reasons defence forces refused to fall in line and continued with British system of things- privileged status but soon it became an eye sore People started to question it and some thought of coup aka Pakistan by defence forces. Apolitical army and fear of coup scared the politicians. It continued with President as Supreme Commander, equivalent of British Governor General but minus power, which was with Prime Minister. Thus babus and politicians started to degrade defence forces by keeping them away from decision making and controlling all financial powers. Defence being super specialised profession and minister knowing little babus took power into their hands by conniving with political leadership. Defence forces kept going down whilst other organs kept going up in all parameters incl pay, perks, status etc.

Presently forces are being strangulated by babus, knowing nothing with zero accountability but exercising all powers on the name of democracy. This has harmed the services tremendously. Infact popular saying goes, Indian Defence Forces biggest enemy is our Ministry Of Defence.

Numerous studies/recommendation to bring in professionalism in MOD have been blocked by MOD fearing accountability & Minsters have accepted this nonsensical logic.

The question what Defence forces need to ask is why aren’t we part of political system of India? Why we have no say in policy matters? If other services are efficient, loyal why can’t we be loyal why becoming political?

Being political implies,

We vote to political parties, which we are doing even today.

We must interact with politicians of all parties. This is not being done. But as responsible citizens, a soldier must be aware of various lines of thought prevailing in the country.

PM & not President must be Supreme Commander as all power & resource are vested with GOI headed by PM. President being only a ceremonial head.

Every Indian votes and so do soldiers. How does a soldier make an intelligent choice if he is isolated from rest of society?

Time for defence forces to initiate discussion to reform itself from apolitical to political army. Babus, who are exercising powers on behalf of ministers with out accountability will loose.

Its WIN WIN for India, & Indian defence forces. There is bound to be initial resistance due emotional reasons but logical approach and changing ties demand Politicisation being need of the hour.

AFGHANISTAN: POST US DEPARTURE, WAY AHEAD

US leaving Afghanistan is a matter of time. Though its being claimed as some victory but the fact is US is abandoning Afghanistan out of frustration, as nothing has unfolded as per its plans.

Pakistan sees this as a big victory, as it hopes it would be able to install Pak based Taliban to rule Afghanistan after US exit. Its set back for weak democratic government in Af as well as India which has invested huge resources in developing its soft power and providing training to military and police forces.

Afghanistan has been ruled by weak centre through strong tribal lords exercising influence on their tribes. War/tribal lords are ferociously independent but loyalty can be purchased with adequate compensation in cash or kind. People are hardy and not inclined to follow strict discipline. Religious but tolerant unlike Taliban which believes in Sharia. It has weak institutions with writ running over restricted areas with little authority to enforce its directions. Democracy, women empowerment etc are not very popular being western concepts.

Drugs have of late become major source of earnings, otherwise agriculture and allied activities, keep people employed.

On the western front, Russia,CAR and Iran do wield influence and would not like hostile regime in Kabul to support tribals with cross border loyalties. Thus would retain degree of influence through tribal war lords and exercise control over areas close to borders.

on the eastern side Pak has strained relations with tribals and Afghanistan. Border between two nations is loosely demarcated, underdeveloped with extremely rugged terrain. Baluchistan and other tribes are not too happy and would like to cede away from Pak and ethnic affinity is close to Afghans than Pak. Pak has also been exploiting this area without any development.

China would like to fill the void created by US withdrawal but Muslims distrust Chinese due to their harassment of Uighurs in Xingjiang province. China has the financial might to influence or control Afghanistan through loose federation of tribal war lords but Taliban will Not accept any Chinese role. Dilemma for both Pak and China.

India has a challenging period ahead. Everyone less democratic government and masses are not happy with Indian influence amongst masses. Soft power wise India is numero uno. But many feel India in an uninvited guest and must exit letting Pak to manage Afghanistan.

US, Afghan government desire India deploy its military forces in Afghanistan. For obvious reasons India is disinclined. Also moment US departs, first to fall would central democratically elected government at Kabul. And it really would make no difference since it has limited influence beyond Kabul.

After US departs with or without an agreement, uncertainty that follows will lead to huge bloodshed, refugees exodus and collapse of whatever governance is there Taliban will come back and try to establish its writ through tribal war lords by promising power and money. Chaos would prevail for considerable amount of time. China, India, CAR,Russia, Iran and India would like to follow wait and watch policy whilst Pak will try to establish a regime loyal to it with China quietly directing things from behind the scenes to ensure favourable regime.

Other scenario is China takes the lead incorporating all Afghanistan’s neighbours and try to hammer out way ahead to ensure peace in Afghanistan and all share holders security and financial concerns are addressed. China would pump in huge resources for road and allied infrastructure development enabling connectivity and access to all for trade and other activities.

Islamic forces led by Saudi Arabia or Iran, is an option, but existing animosity amongst these nations and strained US -Iran relations rule out this, otherwise a workable option.

Finally UN sponsored process comprising forces of neighbouring countries and China/India could stabilise Afghanistan without undue bloodshed. Treaty brokered primarily by US, Russia and UN amongst Afghanistan government, other influential tribal leaders and Taliban leadership.

India should encourage US to go far UN facilitated stabilisation and agreement implementation programme with security and financial during transition clearly defined. UN has adequate expertise in managing multi lateral forces with reasonable level of efficiency.

India must be more proactive as PM Modi has reasonable trust of all stake holders less Pakistan, that can be better managed through China. Its most workable and Indian long term interests adequately safeguarded.

TRIBALS OF ANDAMAN & NICOBAR

Tribals of A&N islands are in news from time to time. Latest being killing of an American by Sentinelese.

These islands comprising more than 500 small to big, majority uninhabited stretch almost 700 kms North South. Indira Point, southernmost tip is very close To Indonesia & Straight of Malacca.

Jarawas, Onges, East Andamanese, Nicobaris, Sentinelses and Shompens are the original tribes of these islands. Shompens are Mongoloid whereas all others are Negrito origin.

Jarawas Live astride weatern coast of main Andaman island in thickly forested areas with their habitat bounded by Bush Police, preventing any entry into the tribal area. Jarawas were hostile to human presence & kept to themselves with hunting and fishing being primary foods augmented by coconut & forest produce. Could be spotted by low flying helicopters sitting on beach, catching fish or swimming across smaller bays. Hutments made of forest produce were in clusters visible from air. If one flew low, tribals would shoot arrows. Contact with humans was disliked but was established in early 80s. However with Andaman Trunk road cutting across the island,their interaction with humans has become frequent.

East Andamanse & Onges were domesticated way back in 80s. Onges are in Little Andaman and stay together in a small cluster. Some of them have even joined Police & Government service. But majority has become lethargic with beetle nut(supari) about 2 kg per adult per month being consumed.

Nicobarese. Live in Car Nicobar. Were exposed to missionary exploits very early. Hardy people and very good footballers apart from good boatsmen. Almost become part of mainstream.

Shompens inhabiting Great Nicobar Island are extremely shy but quite happy with jungle/tribal life. Their skills with jungle living and surviving are something we all can imbibe from them. Know lot about herbs & shrubs and flaura & fauna. Treat to see them extracting honey from honeycombs.

Sentinelese Live in North Sentinel Island are extremely ferocious about human endeavour to establish contact & very little is known about them. Have been known to fire with bows & arrows to deny access to the island. Its also believed that during tsunami when Car Nicobar was devastated, Sentinelese moved to higher reaches in time and suffered no damage. Probably some sixth sense or other methodology of forewarning.

Should we try to civilise them or let them be? That debate has been going on since long time and shall continue for more time. However, seeing civilised Jarawas, asking for tobacco from vehicles driving on Andaman Trunk road was very sorry state. ( AT road was constructed with labour from Bihar and other Indian states. Since it was prolonged construction and manpower intensive. Jarawas slowly befriended & picked up ills). Or Onges, one has extremely serious doubts about forcing change in their lifestyles. Probably a catastrophic blunder. Solution probably lies in controlled access and harmonising tribals lifestyles with ours and subjecting it to mid course corrections. Scientific approach under guidance of experts with studying impact on various facets over a prolonged periods of time.

Tribal tourism to earn money is an extremely bad idea. Poorly conceived without experts advise, will lead to disaster.

LET THEM BE. INTERVENE ONLY FOR CRISIS MANAGEMENT

KASHMIR PROBLEM: FRESH LOOK

Kashmir is lingering as problem defying solution since Independence. Experts give many reasons starting from two nation theory to Pakistan involvement and numerous others. Number of solutions have been proposed by international/national experts but haven’t found favour with both warring nations.

Today’s situation is bad not its been worse earlier. Though very worrisome issue is that mind space has been occupied by Wahhabi ideology. This implies hatred for non Muslims amongst effected populace and low credibility of whatever Indian state or its agencies do for good of masses.

Its also a fact that majority populace of J&K is not with terrorists or Pakistan or desirous of so called Azadi. In Kashmir valley, populace living ahead of Shamshabari Range are patriots and help army to the extent its asked for. These people go to the extent of sharing intelligence and other anti-national activity coming to their notice. In Kashmir, few disturbed districts where separatists have some clout and can draw huge crowds protesting against India; shouting pro Pakistan slogans or carrying ISIS/Pak flags or throwing stones at SF vehicles or forces or participating in funeral processions. On the face of it, it appears highly anti patriotic but fact is majority is there out of fear of terrorists, making quick buck or jingoism. Even populace participates for similar reasons. Terrorists kidnap boys/girls at will for extorting money; recruitment in terrorist organisations or young women for sexual satisfaction of freelance terrorists.

Government massive economic packages and SF operations termed as WHAM or Winning Hearts And Minds have limited impact.

State government virtually blackmails Centre about grave consequences of tempering with special status or other provisos of GOI. State takes hefty economic subsidy but without any accountability. Indian Supreme Court or GOI rules have limited implementation. In fact state decides which rules to implement and those demanding accountability, transparency or devolution of power or women empowerment are not implemented as not in harmony with Sharia. However Haj subsidy, taking interests on deposits from banks are accepted.

Biggest challenge and one issue where present situation differs from past is MIND SPACE. Radio Muzzafarabad was trying to be Radio Free Europe equivalent beaming anti India propaganda since 70s and many believed it to be true. However with cyber space explosion, rentless anti India propaganda being delivered on individual mobiles through Facebook, what's app and emails. Fake news, doctored videos and misinformation regarding atrocities by Hindus against Muslims are popular themes. All these address emotive vulnerability of masses and feeling of distrust. Separatists & politicians when out of power fully add to Mind space poisoning. Once in power becomes well nigh impossible to change thus stance which at times appears to be antagonistic to Indians but local polity is looking at its vote bank. Fund flow from Centre but vote flow from locals, thus CATCH 22 for all politicians.

Media and locals in government jobs have to ensure personal and family safety and security. After all their roots, relatives and other survival well bing is common with masses. Any antagonistic behaviour implies some one being killed/kidnapped. Release demands huge ransom amounts. So LIVE & LET LIVE principle followed by majority of local service providers even when employed by state.

Wahhabi Islam is autocratic and any dissent is quelled with extreme violence. Augmented with relentless assault on Mind space by Pak media at radio, TV and cyber space, local media and religious teachers/ separatists.

Masses are thus victims of fear psychosis due to inability of state to provide security thereby leaving survival at mercy of terrorists. Second is relentless propaganda by media, religious teachers and Pak based agencies. With Indian authorities indifference to counter terrorists/separatists diktat and initiate stringent action against defaulters defying state, populace is slowly but surely drifting away from India.

Is there a solution?

Of course YES. However it needs clear cut and harmonious long term approach rather than knee jerk or let state handle or crisis based reaction. Central Governments have been quite happy with status quo being ensured by state government.On situstion getting worse, some financial package is announced and thereafter its business as normal. There is huge trust deficit between masses and state.

Some Suggestions

Reoccupy MIND SPACE. Religious leaders must be brought on media and interact with youth through FATWAS or logical discussions to shun violence.

Credible, grass root level youth icons must be encouraged to assume leadership. Abdullah and Muftis plus few other families control valley and have own vested agenda of dynasty and status quo proliferation.

Organise mass populace participating events celebrating local festivals and talent. This be organised and conducted by local schools/colleges or block level. Government should be facilitator only. Encourage sports for boys and girls in schools and colleges in big way.

Modernise Madarsas as being done in UP with NCERT syllabi.

Empower women and girls. Talent exploitation be encouraged.

Local NGOs must come up to reach out to populace for delivery of trust.

Make Panchayat Raj strong as it can deliver people’s expectations.

Use SF as last resort rather than prime weapon to manage state. SF must come to control violence and not be presence just for the heck of it.

Shift focus beyond Srinagar. Healthy competition between Kashmir, Jammu and Leh on various parameters of development with incentives will encourage performance on issues those matters.

State governent must have service employee mix policy of 50:40:10. 50% from the region; 10% from Leh and 40 from other region. Will ensure judiciousness, better trust and balanced

HR must be respected and anti terrorists operations must be hard int based surgical in nature. Local intelligence is key to success. Human and technological intelligence needs major investments. Huge reward potential in mid term.

Harassing people by terrorists/SF for intelligence is greatest fear amongst masses. Both use force, coercion and torture to extract information. Mid night knock is greatest stressors for anyone residing in theses areas.

Encourage Gujars and Bakarwals (living ahead of Shamshabari) to relocate at least during winters in Kashmir urban areas.

Household industry to economically better masses. Mega industries are unsuited as of date but once situation improves, huge potential for agro, pharama and electronics hubs to create world class facilities.

Elected representatives must communicate more and minus paraphernalia of huge security. The present security arrangements for VIPs antagonises common people. Their lives have little relevance. Major cause of drift.

Facilitate non partisan sane voices to emerge collectively.

Encourage trust build up amongst Kashmiris, Jammuites and Leh residents.

Encourage local culture Sufi thought, kashmiryat, excellence, empowerment by incorporating all influential people.

Tough stand on all spreading fear psychosis and drift amongst masses by acting on behest of adversary

Ensure safety and security of masses and proper focus on future of youth

GOI and State has two challenges if there is genuine desire to establish normalcy.

ONE. STOP Drift by reoccupying mind space & regain trust

TWO. Ensure safety of masses by enforcing writ of state.