Pakistan appears to be continuously troubling India in-spite of its
unilateral goodwill gestures like Most favoured Nation status and
being magnanimous in releasing water from Himalayan riparian rivers
of Jammu & Kashmir. But Pakistan refuses to reciprocate
positively.
Pakistan also has successfully managed to control escalation levels
as deemed appropriate to its national interests with India being poor
& apologetic responder in both in quality & quantum of
response. Since its not being hit hard where it matters, Pakistan
doesn’t care about human loss of life or en mass movement to deeper
areas to avoid shelling.
What is that Pakistan achieves with zero sum behaviour?
In Pakistan Army calls the shots and its survival by being perceived
by masses as the only saviour that can protect Pakistan from hostile
India, thus its ensured no politician becomes powerful enough to
change this perception. Radicalised army, mullahs indoctrination of
illiterate youth provides enough raw material as canon fodder
foolishly believing about HOORS awaiting in ZANNAT.
Pakistan has successfully leveraged US; Saudi Arabia;OPEC; Islamic
countries oil wealth and of late Chinese for aid/loans/grants on
various pretexts. But most are reluctant to fund Pakistan army any
more, more so after US coming down hard though Chinese are trying to
make up to some extent. But Chinese are known to be tough loan givers
unlike Americans.
China has been trying to arm/finance Pakistan only to the extent that
it keeps being a nuisance to India thereby bogging it down to
regional level. Win win for both.
Internal situation in Pakistan is quite precarious. Extreme poverty;
military flourishing but masses deprived, mullahs wealthy and
powerful but youth unemployable being illiterate and unskilled.
Panjabis domination is leading to resentment amongst all other
provinces- Sind; FATA; Baluchistan; Pakistan Occupied Kashmir are
rising in rebellion against Islamabad. Mullahs backed huge armed
groupings not under control of any central authority keep using
violence for own agendas. Its amazing how & why has Pakistan
survived for so long with such mega problems? Army has exploited this
fear of masses by ensuring weak polity and reasonably understanding
judiciary.
Pakistan army has kept alive threat of nuclear weapon usage thereby
ensuring neutralisation of conventional inferiority & decision
dilemma for Indian planners. Since world is extremely sensitive of
nuclear weapons, Pak believes India will not to go for full fledged
conventional war. Pakistan has put India on defensive &
embroiled in internal affairs of counter insurgency. Sorry state for
any army. Master stroke by any standards.This
carefully nurtured state of affairs has led to perception that Army
is the only saviour. Pakistan grand strategists need to be commended
for boxing into state of helplessness and our strategists failure to
generate suitable befitting response.
Pakistan army for its survival must keep Kashmir & terror
in J&K alive. This is the root cause of the Indo-Pak problem.
Does India has option or it must continue to bleed?
Line of control/Border trans border shelling was the norm in early
2000 till AB Vajpayee government put an end to it. Killings on
civilians and uniformed personal on both sides with zero-sum results
was stopped by statesman PM Vajpayee but seems to be restarting. It
achieves nothing and not an option.
Pakistan army image and/or economy being hurt are the only ways
to moderate army’s behaviour.
Covert action; water disruption; supporting dissenting elements
in PO/Baluchistan; isolating Pakistan at world faura &
strangulating terror funding simultaneously
extending reciprocal development & technological assistance to
ensure leverage. Development and border
peace
will ensure people’s change of perception about
their army. More facilities to aggrieved families; educational
scholarships to POK & Balochis; raking up human rights violations
In Baluchistan; helping Balochis to take Pakistan army to
International Court of Justice for missing masses.
Indian
politicians and masses must cooperate with Government rather than
demanding immediate retaliation.
Defeat Pakistan army through Mind game as propagated in Gita by
driving wedge between masses & army. Pacify LC/Border and
initiate indirect actions enumerated in this article.
