AFGHANISTAN: EMERGING POWER PLAY

Afghanistan has been historically a nation which has never been enslaved. However others have repeatedly tried unsuccessfully however this struggle carries on. Nomadic and hardy tribals; extremely hostile terrain and weather conditions; underdeveloped but strategically located. It connects Asian region with rest of the western world by land route. Its location close to China & Russia makes it suitable encircling cum surveillance base. It reportedly has huge quantum of untapped strategic materials reserves.

Anyone establishing permanent base or stable & sovereign aligned Afghanistan is unacceptable to China/Russia/Pakistan and Iran. Thus super power play continues making Afghanistan into permanent battle ground with opponents changing.

None succeeds because Pakistan considers it to be its strategic depth on western side and if Indian influence goes up, Pakistan perceives its decimation. It encourages non state actors by providing safe sanctuaries, finances, training, motivation, arms, leadership and takes care of all other issues. Key to peace in Afghanistan lies with Pakistan. It uses terrorists motivated with Wahhabi ideology of Jihad & HOORS await in heaven. With China now sole financier cum all weather friend of Pakistan, it will only embolden Pak as Chinese don’t wish to see US/Indian influence in this region. Pakistan will continue fermenting trouble till Afghanistan has a regime loyal to it alone.

US unfortunately has managed to antagonise possible allies capable of countering unholy China-Pak nexus. Russia and Iran encircling Afghanistan from North and West having loyal tribes are interested in peaceful Afghanistan as restive tribals adversely impact neighbouring tribes. Not healthy sign as there is apprehension of terror spreading to such areas. US by default has only India on its side but reluctant to commit military forces due to domestic compulsions.

Line up in Afghanistan is US & reluctant India vs Pakistan nudged by China to ensure US fails & Indian influence minimised. Iran & Russia would be happy to see US being defeated due to animosity created by US. This new alignment of forces doesn’t augur well for Afghanistan to become functional peaceful nation in the near future

SMARTPOWER

China uses a term known as CMP or Comprehensive Military Power. It implies totality of war waging resources including non military. In fact, its more relevant when it comes to deciding outcome of war.

Indian military hierarchy is thinking of two to two and half front war. Should that fructify, this would be horrible scenario and indicate disaster on all fronts of CMP. Nations must ensure if there is war, we fight as alliance against the adversary rather than adversaries combining to fight against us.

Indian thinkers, on the other hand, focus on quantities. Numbers of men and equipment. Its small part of the whole and would be decisive only in minor skirmishes or isolated, locally confined battles.

In terms of defence budget and quantity of military equipment Chinese have huge advantage, however, in terms of quality India does have an advantage to large extent. Border infrastructure and cutting edge technology like Cyber; AI, Space, stealth etc. India is a laggard.

There is this little understood or calculable factor called the SOFT POWER & SMART POWER. This is non aggressive invasion attacking the mind in a manner that victim doesn’t even comes to know he is under attack. In fact he is a willing partner as its WIN-WIN situation. Influence of US brands- foods; clothing; healthcare; movies computer games etc is worldwide. Apart from willing usage it brings with the concept of materialism; cultural, democracy,free society, dissent, crtisicing/challenging state policies. A thought which is alien to most cultures, thereby it threatens the cohesiveness of society. For Communists or other closed/dictatorial societies this posed biggest threat with high probability of implosion/ coup de tat for powers controlling the destiny of the nation.

India has massive edge in soft power sector. India’s cultural heritage; yog birthplace of major religions, foods, diaspora, cinema, IT might ,freedom of citizen and press; cricket and latest being ISA with HQ in India are pillars of soft power. Even Chinese pro government paper, Global Time, accepted the fact that India has been able to better exploit its soft power. Strengthening of diaspora and furthering our soft power is a strategy capable of delivering huge. Goodwill amongst masses even where state may be pro China but masses more comfortable with India. Even China has huge following for Yog/Bollywood.

Every democratic government and autocratic to some extent are sensitive to people’s sentiments. This where soft power plays crucial role of influencing minds of hostile power. Its lie terrorists sleeper cell getting activated just at the right time. Very potent weapon of future and few nations have yet harnessed or orchestrated this dimension. With cyber power almost exploding, capability of soft power gets further influenced. In fact, very interestingly, where autocratic governments try to block free information flow this offers credible option.

This force to be powerful must be invested as long term measure. Diaspora being focal point, our win-win ideas should slowly creep into minds of youth and others in the country of interest. This can be called SMART POWER, i.e., converting soft power through proper planning and prolonged implementation focussing on PEOPLE to be capable of influencing their governments.

EMERGING CHINESE THREAT

Presidents Trump is quite clear in his approach, America First; if it antagonises its traditional allies , then so be it. Benevolence attitude since demise of Britain as dominant power has taxed US economy heavy and no previous President was bold enough to take such varying stand but Trump is different and being devoid of any baggage, he takes decisions best or US. Cutting down/reducing some strategic military ventures’ liability would burden many free loaders.

Rising China is desirous of occupying space being ceded by US. China has the financial might and slowly developing cutting edge military technologies by investing huge in its Academics & research establishment. Being quite ruthless its been stealing technologies from all over without caring for ethics and legalities. This has helped China to leap frog in military technology. Thus it has the potential to fill the void.

China’s rise is scaring most of the world nations used to international laws and treaties for its conduct and resolving disputes through consensus whereas Chinese prefer use force to ensure its right of way. Chinese rise is scary and causing quite a lot of discomfort amongst all. China sees India as biggest threat at regional level and has potential of creating powerful alliances to counter Chinese threat. It would aim to keep India embroiled with Pakistan and creating crisis or raking up irritants on regular basis, through proxies in South Asia.

China has its huge vulnerabilities too. Rogue nations of North Korea & Pakistan will keep on embarrassing China on its high moralistic ground whenever it takes. Tibet & Xingziang are restive and use of brute force attracts adverse opinion unacceptable to powerful nation. Islamic terror is creeping in spite of drastic measures initiated by China. Slowing economy; rising inflation; unemployment; demanding population and corruption are very severe problems which are going to grow in magnitude. Few genuine friends, unholy alliances and total mistrust hallmark of Chinese international relationships. Economically its blood sucker with interests rates that would cripple any economy.

Chinese have some peculiarities.

One, supremely egoistic with tremendous pride in its past and desires to dominate the world.

Second extremely patient during negotiations. In fact masters in using time to cause attrition on opponent by shear delays.

Thirdly its extremely sensitive to dissent and any threat to its unity. Tibet, Xingxiang or Islamic terror could dismember China. Its really scared of these forces.

Lastly it uses mind game and total resources, economic, blackmail, sanctions etc to force favourable decision without combat, war being last resort which is best avoided. AND IT RESPECTS STRENGTH.

India has plenty of options without confronting China directly militarily. Alliances with own modern and powerful defence forces is the key.

Indian economy is rising and Chinese slowing down. Any trade restriction would hurt China real bad adding to its unemployment and dissent amongst masses with severe ramifications.

Disturbed POK and Western Pakistan hampering CPEC. China is investing billions to access Gwadar and Middle East Oil so that its vulnerable SLOC/ Jugular at extremely vulnerable Malacca straight are taken care of to a large extent. India can ensure turbulence with Afghanistan/US/Iran aiding. Drag China to ICJ for construction activity in POK which is our area under illegal occupation of Pakistan.

Economically weak, impoverished and internally unstable Pakistan with radicals; mullahs and terrorists calling shots would be nightmare of Chinese ambitions of safe Gwader passage. With intelligent covert action it can be Chinese Vietnam experience.

HH Dalai Lama and Buddhist world over congregating in India from time to time and Buddhist tourist from Japan, Myanmar and other countries visiting monasteries and HH would be great pain for China. An issue with tremendous soft power potential dreaded by China. Budhists in Nepal and Myanmar must be encouraged to interact with Tibetian Buddhists, great soft power application with very positive ramifications. Annual international Buddhist meetings in India under tutelage of HH Dalai Lama would energise and unite this community.

SAARC nations economic integration on all soft power issues. China trying to control governments through economic lucrative offerings but masses more in harmony with India. This must be further strengthened. Masses are what matters.

Above measures demand proactive aggressive orientation by our strategic planners. The present tendency of Meekly Defensive approach is disastrous giving all options to adversary. Time for offensive defensive; use of mind; exploiting Chinese traits and using our massive soft power to deter China from any war.

Indian army must have adequate contingency plans to deter any localised skirmishes by quickly mobilising resources by having quality satellite/human intelligence to ensure timely and effective response.

In any hostile activity with Chinese, AIM SHOULD BE DETERRENCE. Loss of face is traumatic for Chinese establishment and it would avoid any confrontations where outcome would be a stalemate. It would resort to border skirmishes on plea of border demarcation issues or at best localised conflicts with threats of escalation wherein weal political leadership may loose its nerves.

On the seafront, navy is already into quality alliances with other regional navies and ensuring 24×7 monitoring of hostile shipping activity.

India can’t and must not fight 2/3 front war, its sure recipe for disaster. Our polity and diplomatic force has to ensure this does not happen. Domination at sea and deterrence on land and air/space/cyber and emerging frontiers adequately meets our defence needs of territorial integrity and safeguarding areas of interests. Nation must invest in AI and other emerging dual edge cutting technology. Soon technology and not brute military force will decide winning side, so combination of lean and thin army coupled with powerful technology must be the way ahead.