Tuesday, March 20, 2018

AFGHANISTAN: EMERGING POWER PLAY


Afghanistan has been historically a nation which has never been enslaved. However others have repeatedly tried unsuccessfully however this struggle carries on. Nomadic and hardy tribals; extremely hostile terrain and weather conditions; underdeveloped but strategically located. It connects Asian region with rest of the western world by land route. Its location close to China & Russia makes it suitable encircling cum surveillance base. It reportedly has huge quantum of untapped strategic materials reserves.
Anyone establishing permanent base or stable & sovereign aligned Afghanistan is unacceptable to China/Russia/Pakistan and Iran. Thus super power play continues making Afghanistan into permanent battle ground with opponents changing.
None succeeds because Pakistan considers it to be its strategic depth on western side and if Indian influence goes up, Pakistan perceives its decimation. It encourages non state actors by providing safe sanctuaries, finances, training, motivation, arms, leadership and takes care of all other issues. Key to peace in Afghanistan lies with Pakistan. It uses terrorists motivated with Wahhabi ideology of Jihad & HOORS await in heaven. With China now sole financier cum all weather friend of Pakistan, it will only embolden Pak as Chinese don’t wish to see US/Indian influence in this region. Pakistan will continue fermenting trouble till Afghanistan has a regime loyal to it alone.
US unfortunately has managed to antagonise possible allies capable of countering unholy China-Pak nexus. Russia and Iran encircling Afghanistan from North and West having loyal tribes are interested in peaceful Afghanistan as restive tribals adversely impact neighbouring tribes. Not healthy sign as there is apprehension of terror spreading to such areas. US by default has only India on its side but reluctant to commit military forces due to domestic compulsions.
Line up in Afghanistan is US & reluctant India vs Pakistan nudged by China to ensure US fails & Indian influence minimised. Iran & Russia would be happy to see US being defeated due to animosity created by US. This new alignment of forces doesn’t augur well for Afghanistan to become functional peaceful nation in the near future

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