Afghanistan
has been historically a nation which has never been enslaved. However
others have repeatedly tried unsuccessfully however this struggle
carries on. Nomadic and hardy tribals; extremely hostile terrain and
weather conditions; underdeveloped but strategically located. It
connects Asian region with rest of the western world by land route.
Its location close to China & Russia makes it suitable encircling
cum surveillance base. It reportedly has huge quantum of untapped
strategic materials reserves.
Anyone
establishing permanent base or stable & sovereign aligned
Afghanistan is unacceptable to China/Russia/Pakistan and Iran. Thus
super power play continues making Afghanistan into permanent battle
ground with opponents changing.
None
succeeds because Pakistan considers it to be its strategic depth on
western side and if Indian influence goes up, Pakistan perceives its
decimation. It encourages non state actors by providing safe
sanctuaries, finances, training, motivation, arms, leadership and
takes care of all other issues. Key to peace in Afghanistan
lies with Pakistan. It uses
terrorists motivated with Wahhabi ideology of Jihad & HOORS await
in heaven. With China now sole financier cum all weather friend of
Pakistan, it will only embolden Pak as Chinese don’t wish to see
US/Indian influence in this region. Pakistan
will continue fermenting trouble till Afghanistan has a regime loyal
to it alone.
US
unfortunately has managed to antagonise possible allies capable of
countering unholy China-Pak nexus. Russia and Iran encircling
Afghanistan from North and West having loyal tribes are interested in
peaceful Afghanistan as restive tribals adversely impact
neighbouring tribes. Not healthy sign as there is apprehension of
terror spreading to such areas. US by default has only India on its
side but reluctant to commit military forces due to domestic
compulsions.
Line
up in Afghanistan is US & reluctant India vs Pakistan nudged by
China to ensure US fails & Indian influence minimised. Iran &
Russia would be happy to see US being defeated due to animosity
created by US. This new alignment of forces doesn’t augur well for
Afghanistan to become functional peaceful nation in the near future
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