Indo-Chinese Informal summit meeting at Wuhan

After strained relation post 73 day long Doklam stand-off, two powerful neighbours are making an endeavour to reset way ahead. There are many serious irreconcilable differences as well as huge opportunities. Strategic and economic cooperation and not belligerence is the way ahead.

Chinese arrogance in NSG & Pak terror veto & CPEC going through POK are well known and its difficult for India to fallback on any of the issues. For China CPEC/BRI is most prestigious investment which will hurl China into dominating economic super power. Its fear of SLOC passing through Indian Ocean & Malacca straight with potential of chocking Chinese economy is Chinese biggest fear. Chinese unity is again one of the big fears . Muslims in Uighur in Xingjiang region and Tibet plateau both are restive and Chinese have deployed massive resources to manage discontent through use of brutal physical force, isolating areas/populace from rest of the world and of course forcing demographic change by settling Hans & huge investments. However, these measures are causing backlash with very severe ramifications, in worst case scenarios, may lead to Chinese implosion aka USSR. Finally Chinese booming economy is dependent on exports overwhelming markets through cheap goods via huge subsidies. Its led to local markets closing down leaving millions jobless and huge trade deficit. Acceptable initially but being resented due huge trade imbalances. This has led to dumping penalties and resistance to cheap goods dumping. Chinese economy and unemployment would be hit adding to social unrest and government becoming vulnerable. Chinese investments are also under scanner due stringent conditions, making host nations heavily dependent and vulnerable to economic blackmail. Nations are scared or extremely cautious of Chinese investments having learnt of consequences faced by others. China is seen as brutally demanding and coercive partner treating host nations with contempt.

India is rising economy thus darling of world investors due huge under penetrated markets. Its appetite for consumer goods is unparalleled. India's defence modernisation is huge attraction for world arms manufacturers. Top arms manufacturers are willing to produce in India as well as willing to share cutting edge classified technology in exchange of orders. In soft power, India is miles ahead and it is perceived as caring, benevolent nation.

Chinese domination of Indian Ocean or Asian region is unacceptable to India due its economy and stature. Against Chinese belligerence India desires cooperation and peaceful resolutions of disagreements.

Chinese wish list

India’s support for CPEC/BRI

Less pressure on Pak on terror front

No trade restrictions to Chinese companies in telecommunications.

Control HH Dalai Lama

Be in Chinese camp or Neutral but not anti

Stay away from oil exploration in South China Sea in conjunction with Vietnam

No Brahmos to Vietnam

Indian wish list

NSG membership

No economic activity in POK.

Joint Ventures in Afghanistan.

Quite borders. Pak controlling terror export to India/Afghanistan.

No unfriendly activity on borders

Investments in India.

Opening Chinese markets to Indian firms to ensure balanced trade

There is bound to be discussion on overlapping interests/concerns. Our neighbours being lured by China due to money power causing deep concern/mistrust.

Syria, Iran vs West’s belligerence and managing towards beneficial culmination. West not cancelling Iran’s nuclear deal concern for both.

Middle East oil prices management mechanism too would be discussed.

Challenge

Both leaders are very strong nationalists and wish to take nations to greater heights of success and glory. Cooperation suits both but due to overlapping areas of interest it would demand great statesmanship to come to balanced posture without losing long term strategic interests/allies.

World Oil price management, peace in Middle East, Afghanistan and investments should be doable to advantage of both.

CPEC, Pak & terror, NSG, trade balancing are issues which would demand tough negotiations and give & take. PM Modi would be somewhat vulnerable due elections in 19 to give any concessions which could be exploited as sell out by opposition parties but extremely job creating investments with short term gestation periods would be desirable. Xingping would like access to Indian markets without any Chinese specific restrictions is one area where agreement is doable as win win situation.

Great opportunity with fresh decisions for resetting future through cooperation could pave the way for both rising to top as economic and military powers. Both strong nationalist leaders would aim at that without antagonising own interests is tough challenge

Unfolding Syrian crisis and ramifications for India

US led forces including France and Britain carried out missile attacks on Syrian territory alleging these to be chemical research/ storage & weapon manufacturing facilities. Potentially a very complex and dangerous situation could flow if opposing forces cross red lines.

Syria is a Shia state with Iran & Iraq supporting it on religious lines and has military backing of Russia. Lined up against in addition to US led coalition forces are Saudis land Sunni world. Thus

* Sunni VS Shia both fighting far religious supremacy in the Muslim world with both temporal heads, i.e. Saudis & Iran contesting. It has far reaching ramifications.

* US led forces of France and England against and Russia far Syria.

Russia has deployed advisors and weapons within Syria. It also includes the deadly anti air craft system capable of shooting incoming missiles and supposedly best available in the world as of date. Russia will stand with Syria as its credibility would be at stake should it back down or Syrians face defeat. Prez Putin will not accept and will positively up the ante as worst case scenario.

      Iran has reasonable quality forces and high quality terrorist organisation called Hezbollah operating from Lebanon targeting Israel periodically.

      Should Hezbollah target Israel, then the situation becomes extremely complex. Complete Middle East including powerful militias being unleashed, would, in worst case scenario, set the stage of dreaded Clash of Civilisation theory or next big war engulfing one and all. With oil production under threat it will lead to economic catastrophe for all economies of the world.

     US & western powers do not wish use of chemical gases on Syrian populace opposing Prez Asad Syria but supported by west. Empirically, US has minimal credibility about its claims of Syria using chemical weapons. It claimed it had evidence against Saddam Hussein whilst attacking Iraq but it was never proven though Saddam was toppled leading to chaos in Iraq and rise of most dreaded terrorist organisation ISIS. Prez Trump, Prez Macron and PM May are facing severe crisis on domestic front and this being a ploy to divert attention is not ruled out.

     Western Alliance has fortunately targeted only chemical weapons associated facilities through precision weapons thereby minimising collateral damage. It ensures situation is not aggravated wherein Russia is forced to get involved which could be extremely dangerous. Russia too would like to ensure Syrian regime and Prez Asad survive and western supported forces don’t become excessively powerful. Thus a stalemate suits all.

            With Russia & Shia world on one side and US on the other. The ramifications would be extremely severe for US war in Afghanistan. With Pakistan already moving into Chinese cradle , US would have antagonised all neighbouring states capable of ensuring stable Afghanistan. That in all probability may not happen. Antagonised neighbours would like US to get struck in Afghanistan quagmire and suffer humiliation before pulling out as it happened in Vietnam. Unstable Afghanistan would be bad for India and its policy of cutting Pakistan to size by using Chahbar to access CAR and Afghanistan.  Any setback for US in Afghanistan would help China to move in and occupy the vacuum much to the disadvantage of India and rest of the world.

     India has friendly relations with all and has reasons for peaceful region. Our dependence on oil and huge populace working there. Neutral stand is the only option. India” s relations with all countries are very friendly, it should behind the scenes play as a moderator to prevent escalation.

     Its very complex situation in Syria with potential of going out of control with disastrous ramifications. One hopes Prez Trump can control the situation through visionary statesmanship. Should he fail, US will suffer huge embarrassments in Middle East and Afghanistan. India has big stakes but little influence and not in a position to take sides. Our interest lies in reasonably stable region.

PAK-RUSSIA-CHINA NEXUS: OPPORTUNITY INDIA

RUSSIA – PAKISTAN- CHINA NEXUS: OPPORTUNITY INDIA

Pakistan having been cornered by US & its allies on terror front is looking far options with the other camp, viz., China & Russia. Whereas China has been arming Pakistan defence forces including nuclear as counter weight & proxy against India, Russia seems to be new player in the game. Prez Trump coming down hard on China, Russia & Iran in addition to Pakistan is leading to new alignments in this part of region. With US looking for a way out of Afghanistan, others China, Russia, Iran, Pak and of course India wish to occupy the space to be vacated.

Russia, Iran & Pakistan would like US to be stuck in Afghanistan like Vietnam- draining its economy with no honourable exit. China is looking at strategic location & mineral wealth yet to be exploited in continental shelf of Afghanistan. Iran & Pak wish to increase influence due religious affinity across the border and strategic depth. India is looking at pro/neutral Afghanistan & Pak getting struck with terrorist organisations created by it. Pak needs deployment space for these venomous generation mentally trained to kill for Islam. Once Afghanistan stabilised, India would be next deployment ground for these terrorists. Present state of controlled violence in Afghanistan suits all as it ensures no single nation dominates Afghanistan to disadvantage of others. So its me or none.

India having moved some what away from Russia towards US for arms acquisitions, Pakistan and may be even Russia sees an opportunity in this changing scenario. Pakistan wants to acquire world class military hardware from Russia where China is lacking today. Tanks, helicopters and long range anti missile systems are on Pakistan wish list. With oil prices stabilising, Russia facing pressure from US and western Europe would be looking to reboot its economy. Should Pakistan be willing to purchase hardware in large quantities Russians are likely to oblige.

Question then arises, from where will Pakistan raise huge amounts for procurements? US cash hen is nearly dried up, Europe and other world bodies certainly won’t oblige and China won’t fund or will demand stringent conditions. Saudi Arabia has been magnanimous in the past but with Saudi economy under pressure and Saudi kingdom looking at opening up, may not be as magnanimous. In-house Pakistan economy is nearly broke and it can’t afford to purchase huge amount of weapons at non- subsidised rates.

Pakistan would be in a quandary to raise funds and should these be available, India must encourage or force it to procure more hardware as India itself is looking at mega spends in next few years. India must officially weakly protest but behind the scenes nudge Russia to sell whatever Pakistan’s wish list is, thereby ensuring its economic collapse. Imploding China would be huge disaster for China as CPEC/Gwader collapses taking down Chinese dreams of independence from vulnerable Sea Lines of Communication through Indian Ocean and its policy of strings of hostile basis around India collapses too.

Great opportunity for India to decimate Pakistan; diminish Chinese clot In Pakistan and Russia benefits economically. Iran; Afghanistan benefit immensely and India gets land route via Pakistan to Afghanistan and CAR.

Biggest challenge after Pakistan collapse would be managing Pakistan & terrorists network in Pakistan and radicalised youth which pose big threat. Saudi Arabia leading the way due to its moral authority of religious head of Sunni Islam to transform society to liberal, de denuclearised Pakistan would be win-win for mankind.