Whilst India was busy fighting
Chinese unleashed Corona virus, this treacherous & backstabbing
nation transgressed into certain territories in Ladakh region.
Violating all treaties & protocols it assaulted Indian soldiers
with iron rods & barbed wire made instruments capable of severe
injuries incl fatalities. India lost a CO & twenty men but
Chinese losses unknown because its afraid of justifying dead. It
occupied few other points as well.
Whilst talks of mutual
withdrawal were ongoing it has amassed its war waging wherewithal at
number of places but so has India reinforced its forces with tanks,
artillery guns & trained manpower.
Reasons for Chinese
transgression, claimed by experts, are many. These include
Infrastructure development
close to LAC negating Chinese build up superiority
Fear of India capturing POK
& Aksai Chin
Perceived threat to CPEC
Change of status of J&K
Teach India a lesson
Capture territories as part
of Slamy slicing
Divert attention from
internal problems. Unemployment, economy etc
Announce to the world China
has arrived
China had amassed troops &
war fighting resources in Tibet as part of annual exercise. Instead
of falling back, these were inducted into Galwan valley & some
other places. Most of the mundane issues have been discussed in
national/international media with everyone giving his own assessment.
Its worth noting that Indian army or government has not shared much
information; China doesn’t share much other than propaganda
material. Truth is known to armies or nations at apex level rest all
is in speculation or professional analysis. Danger of this narrative
is, in satellite image reading experts vary from deep movement into
Indian territory to crossing. Thus credibility question mark.
Chines media initially
threatening India with war dire consequences, be prepared to fight
with Nepal/Pakistan & China. Later, after Galwan encounter, there
was total change. Quoting Mahatma Gandhi; don’t align with USA,
India China can rise together etc but it kept on building its forces
across LAC all along Indo – Chinese border. During India DM’s
visit to Russia for 75 anniversary victory parade, India requested
for additional weapons on priority, which were promised. Indian RM
refused to interact with Chinese counterpart, though mouthpiece
Global Times announced meeting was on & then it requested Russia
not to give weapons to India, it was declined. China continues to
expand area of flash points though being challenged by Indian army at
every point.
Indian army is extremely
strong in mountain warfare & its air force superior to China.
Airfield locations give clear advantage to India. India has matching
armoured & surveillance capabilities & superior air mobility
& artillery. China on the other hand has better missiles &
cyber capability plus huge influencing assets in Indian
media/political parties/veteran journalists. But its has long
logistic lines, little infrastructure to deploy in strength to man
LAC plus extremely vulnerable border areas both Tibet & Xinjiang.
At the international level,
China is accused & isolated on unleashing corona; free world
leaders wish to examine facts & probably recommend punitive
measure incl economic sanctions. Its belligerence in Hongkong,
Taiwan, South China Sea, Japan & Vietnam has been taken
cognizance of & certainly not being accepted; its economy already
squeezing will suffer huge if manufacturing moves out of China.
USA has already moved its
aircraft carriers to South China Sea, its relocating forces from
Germany to Asia to counter belligerent China. India has moved its
warships from Arabian Sea to Bay of Bengal monitoring Malacca
straight – connecting Pacific to Indian Ocean. Quad US, India,
Japan & Australian navies should be moving in due course &
Japanese are deploying missiles capable of countering hostile Chinese
activity.
Options for India
Military domain. Build up so
as not to get surprised
Contain transgression
Occupy heights elsewhere in
disputed areas,should PLA refuse to return from areas occupied by it
Keep PLA engaged till
winters, General WINTER will destroy PLA
Keep POK option open, should
PLA withdraw prematurely
Reserves tied down, can’t
influence South China Sea operations
Don’t cede any territory or
fresh claims
Coordinate with US & Quad
operations in South China Sea & activate assets in China,
Hongkong, Taiwan, Japan & Korea. Extremely vulnerable logistic
support lines.
Economy collapsing is better
option as military action could rally people with Xi Jingping;
economic disaster will destroy him without round fired
Desirable end states
Xi jingping dethroned by his
people & China collapses aka USSR
India would be delighted if
Aksai Chin & POK rejoin India. CPEC dead. Tibet independent –
HHDL returns honourably back to Tibet. India would be satisfied if
LAC demarcated & converted into International Border.
Free world led by USA.
Satisfied if force not used against Hongkong & other nations of
South China Sea & free passage assured to all ships. China
behaves responsibly as per international norms. Replace Xi jingping
with moderate leader.
Dependence on China reduced
significantly
China would like to emerge as
sole super power dethroning USA & thereafter rule the world
through its values system by dominating all word decision making
bodies. Increase its territories by integrating Pakistan, Nepal,
Bhutan & occupy Northern parts of Ladakh to reduce threat to CPEC
& other assets in POK/Aksaichin/Xinjiang.
