TERROR ATTACKS BY PAK ON MIL BASES

Of late Pakistan based terror groups have been successfully attacking India security forces with impunity in close vicinity to LC and deep inside. Much too the anguish of common citizen, there appears to be very little in terms of qualitative response.

Army bases in spite of all possible defensive measures of perimeter fencing; wall; patrolling with adequate night surveillance capability have failed to deter these attacks inspire of some quality of intelligence available.

Pakistan army denies all responsibility inspire of some credible evidence having been provided in the past. In any case deniability of terror action is part of state policy to bleed India. Moot questions then arise are:-

Who is the enemy?

What does he aspire to achieve?

What is the manifestation shape?

How to defeat the threat?

Who is the enemy?

            The enemy is a civilian who has been trained in all skills needed to fight armed enemy by indirect approach. Terrorist, called fidayeen or freedom fighter by the host country.  All are Muslims, could belong to any country, having operated as part jihadi group somewhere ranging from Afghanistan to Mid East or even Africa. Highly motivated  has developed expertise in using high technology; usage of explosives and latest gadgetry/weapons; physical and mental toughness in addition to basic military skills but is ruthless in brutality. Compassion and mercy not part of his personality domain. Fidayeen/suicide bombers or whatever one calls these terrorists; the idea first appeared during First World War. Japanese snipers would ties themselves on bamboo tops with some rations to snipe at approaching enemy to delay/cause causalities and impose caution whilst own troops got time to withdraw and prepare next defensive positions. Also when Gen Mc Arthur tanks landed on beaches, Jap soldiers would tie mines to their bodies and fall in front of the tank. Blowing tank and self in the bargain. Japanese pilots would take on high value combat missions flying in aircraft not yet fit to land. This is where the concept of assured death with mission execution came into being. The motivation behind suicidal mission was to defeat the enemy and fierce loyalty to the king. Terrorist have followed the same ideology, motivation being, since fighting holy war, will go to heaven post death.AM EXTREMELY HIGH MOTIVATION LEVEL

            Terrorist is a radicalised Muslim primarily executing mission during what he believes is jihad, holy religious war for protection of Islam. He is supported by Pakistan Establishment. IDENTITY WISE ENEMY IS BLURRED. This is the enemy posing new kind of threat.

 What does he Aspire to Achieve

            Pakistan wants Kashmir to be its part; avenge 71 defeat wherein it’s lost East Pakistan- now Bangla Desh. Since militarily it’s not feasible, it has used terror to back up its strategy of annexing Kashmir. Terrorists from Al Qaida/Taliban/others from Muslim countries fighting in Mid east/Africa/misguided youths from Kashmir. Pakistan has cultivated a very powerful loyalist; media; opinion makers and others to shape environments for this cause. Quite a chunk of populace sympathises with local terror sirs as view them as standing against states might on their behalf It has invested heavily as its long term battle of attrition by using fake currency/drug money to fund terrorists activities.

Unrest in Valley is key to success to ensure issue kept high on emotional fire. Separatist; local terrorist leaders; supporters in Government service and forced allegiance from civil. Fear; blackmail; money are used as tools to keep unemployed youth charged with anti national activities. Using media; democracy; Human Rights; NGOs to its advantage, it has managed huge followers/sympathisers with simple agenda of Freedom.

India is paying very heavy price. Huge defence/police presence and expenditure; youth radicalising; development suffering; students loosing academic years; no industry coming in so no jobs. It has virtually become economic cesspool with negative returns whereas huge potential in tourism; cash crops; herbs.

Indian military might and democracy enabling force application and negotiation through elected representatives is thwarting Pakistan plans. Though huge security forces presence is hated by all but its security curtain against terrorists.

Pak has achieved to economically drain India by using currency printed in Pak; radicalised youth; bleeding Kashmir and everyone suffering. India is paying huge price. Pak feels at some point of time, mass frustration could become an uprising for Freedom from India thus Kashmir can cede. Its ultimate dream.

What is Modus operandi?

            Post recruitment, he is trained at various camps imparting training in various disciplines. Indoctrination to reformat thought process to replace humane values with brutality and killing kafirs ; terrorising masses; suicide and great glory in dying followed by trip to heaven. Depending on skills achieved and level of motivation terrorist given responsibility for subsequent missions.

From training areas, he comes to HQ via staging areas for target briefing and mission execution plan. Satellite imagery and other intelligence available is shared during briefing. Necessary wherewithal needed is provisioned and handed over closer to crossing venue, which is generally from launch pads manned by border protection. Could spend few days to study security forces activity and familiarise with area close to border. Guidance coordination, if not done, would be done here.

            After crossing, move with the help of GPS by night or during day in the guise depending on safety and prevalent security state. Guided from point to point by agents/guides till reach the target area. In the vicinity of target area, undertake extensive confirmatory reconnaissance of target area with the help of local guides. Generally stay in safe houses provided by sympathisers/cells.

            Strike with surprise being most important factor. Early morning/sundown is most vulnerable times for bases as routine changing from day to night and vice a versa. Aim of terrorists is to cause maximum human damage and delay operations as much as possible by taking shelter behind safe areas/taking hostage. This gives advantage of mega media coverage adding to heroic value and vulnerability of defence forces. This over a period of time destroys people’s faith in the invincibility of the army.

How to defeat this threat?

            Yes, new threat needs new approach to defeat. Existing ways will fail and continue to fail. Army traditionally fought with enemy’s army on the borders and fell back once political negotiations took place post the war.

That’s history. Army must be prepared to fight terrorist threat by understanding his way of fighting and evolve own new way to defeat him. Standing armies have set predictable, mundane almost lethargic routines and standardised procedures leaving /expecting very little diversion from set procedures. Getting up for complete army depends on reveille as per timings laid down in met tables. Routine follows thereafter. Set routine and excessive dependence on procedures virtually destroys initiative of soldier/junior leader. This is greatest weakness when faced with unpredictable situation demanding different response.   

Terrorist, on the other hand having analysed army’s way exploits it fully. To beat him, think like a terrorist, then and only then can he be defeated.

Suggestions to defeat the new threat

·         Train soldier to think like a terrorist

·         Let soldiers plan operations as mock terrorists

·         Teach soldiers guise; deception; befriending locals

·         Intelligence gathering by mingling with civilians/shopkeepers

·         Sleep by day; train body night operation with same efficiency

·         Small team unconventional operations planning and execution

·         Back to basics- jungle/mountain lore to understand signs/ noises

·         Sniper firing – one shot assured kill at 2 kms

·         Handling of explosives/IED/first aid

·         Night/moon light operations with night devices

·         Extremely high physical fitness and mental alertness

·         Innovation

·         Mental toughness to bear very high degree of discomfort.

·         Interrogation

·         Move out- be aggressive, only then victory assured. Dominate area around

·         Defensive mentality is dangerous

·         Integrated info sharing and cord destruction of terrorists by QRTs

·         Confidence in weapon; equipment handling

·         Surprise; stealth; deceit and minimal external support to execute mission

·         Special precautions on days emotionally closer to jihadis.

Conclusion

            New war, combining regular and terror is a fact of life. It has to be fought and defeated by analysing its vulnerability and exploiting the same. Procedural; routine need to be replaced with innovation ;small team operations by using aggression, guise,  mixing /dominating areas around and sniper fire /others weapons/equipment to minimise collateral damage.

            Break the routine, come out of zero mistakes and take operational risks. Go out, seek and destroy the terrorist by pre-empting by keeping sympathisers under watch with help of police and sources.

            Defeating demands following new rules or keep facing defeat and sulking.

Choice is ours and nation won’t accept repeated failures. Rise and succeed. Live upto our expectations

REMONETISATION: EMERGENCE OF NEW INDIA

Laurels from one and all and brickbats from opposition with in India post re (de)monetisation followed with both warning of severe ramifications. Black money; terror; hawala and associated activities like stone palters in valley; Naxal in Central India; sports illegal betting were all down stated GOI. Opposition on the other hand, claimed extreme hardships to rural and marginalised populace in the country. Both had some merit in what their rationale was.PM then spoke to Nation highlighting his aim of new; developed; corruption free India so bear hardship for sometimes. One and all, to the utter surprise of Media/politicians suddenly realised ground slipping from underneath their feet. Nation with PM Modi and Opposition in paralytic mode. Hereafter Opposition lost the script, though seasoned politicians decided to be silent on people friendly measure but few decided to take it head on. Conveying rationale, which common man understood was they had lost black money leading to sudden empathy for common man as effectively countered by PM that those shouting were the ones who had lost black money. Nation with PM, opposition cornered. All theatrics failed to get any sympathy from masses. It soon became corrupt vs. Honest. Opposition got a knockout punch with irrational behaviour decimated its credibility and unity in disarray.

People protesting loudest were those who lost huge wealth as no notice was given to convert unaccounted wealth. Media in spite of its best efforts to get angry inputs were very clearly told, much to the agony of reporters, yes problems of cash are there but willing to give PM days he has asked for. The wait for cash in the first week post remonetisation was agonising.

Some sulked but innovative shopkeeper very quickly learnt and accepted digital payments much to the chagrin of intellectual class. Thought to be dumbest but surprised most by shear survival instinct by turning threat into an opportunity.

Almost three weeks into remonetisation process, worst seem to be behind but nation continues to stand solidly behind PM. Some called it a masterstroke others a historical blunder and few others excellent idea but poorly implemented. Charisma; faith; hope for bright future- whatever one calls it, PM Modi stands much taller than any other leader, in fact as he grew tall others by stupidity became pygmies.

Midway through the process, something’s are very encouraging and clear.

India is ready for digitalised style of working. No hassles at all. Hardly literates picked up E-payments in less than an hour.

India is basically lethargic, quite contended wit status quo but faced with crisis, responds surprisingly well.

Corruption; arrogance of power and vulgar display of wealth by politicians is hated like plague. Establishment, which had taken bribes as its right for duty performance is again despised. People asking for part payment in black were a big pain for a salaried citizen. One had to live with it as no alternative option existed. It’s hoped bribes and component in blacks and arrogance/vulgar display of wealth would be history.

Silent, bloodless transformation which cannot be appreciated by all undergoing routine drudgery of life but for a student of history it’s probably greater in magnitude than French revolution.

Corrupt politicians; dynasties inheriting power by subjugating system converting democracy into feudalism was out of sync with aspiration of masses. Revolt was building up what was finding no expression till PM Modi understood and exploited it. Era of honest, responsive, accountable, transparent leadership has arrived. Either brace up or perish.

Crowds collected for rallies through paid contractors would be history. Times of crowd of lakhs may be history unless there is popular leadership.

Corruption and bribe free developed nation providing quality services and basic amenities to all its citizens with most services available online is the transformation from corrupt; filthy; creaking infra; agrarian; on responsive establishment and bribe for services. Mega change of massive scale and dimensions. Revolution which opposition failed to decipher but masses understood.

PM Modi has taken a great risk, making many enemies who will try to ensure failure of remonetisation by whatever means they can; people too may lose patience so the battle is a t crucial stage with scales slowly tilting in favour of PM but delicate balance demanding urgency in cash availability followed by genuine pro India reforms ensuring dignified, safe, empowered life and access to basic amenities to all citizens

FIDAYEEN ON ARMY POSTS: CHANGE OF STRATEGY

Nagrota, Uri, Pathankot heavily protected defence establishment with intelligence inputs attacked by fidayeen leading to very heavy loss of life to trained military manpower. Very frustrating and shows defence forces in poor light to civilian and veteran-- getting mauled even when armed.

Fidayeen comes with fixed aim. Die whilst executing assigned mission causing maximum collateral damage both physical but more important psychological. If reports are to be believed, detailed intelligence about layout available with terrorists undoubtedly indicates someone from inside facilitating entry from vulnerable point; exploiting weaknesses of existing procedures (coming in army combat dress during early morning, thereby defeating orders to open fire only after positive identification. Early morning; foggy conditions force on soldier to wait for identifying before opening fire, which in some cases is too late. Excessive defensive orders have forced fear of non acceptance of causalities by default. By exploiting existing operational conditions, terrorist appears to be succeeding in both. Advantage Pak army.

Fatigue come complacency having set in over a period of time due repeated intelligence in puts is one of the major reasons for lethargic reactions.Non availability of bullet proof jackets; night vision devices and fear of own causalities could be a reason for local commanders to minimise venturing out, leading to defensive mindset.  Disadvantage Indian Army

Fidayeen has forced defensive mindset amongst soldiers and anyone who defends is likely to lose more often and that’s exactly what’s happening. Advantage Pak army and terrorists

Nation has become so less sensitive to deaths- cash rewards; revenge and martyrdom with presence of ceremonial funeral; VIPs; Media during funeral. Thereafter its life as usual carries on. Army goes for massive artillery assaults leading to deaths/injuries across. Kill and counter kills.Pakistan looses terrorist and India looses trained manpower. Terrorists are mankind haters with little mercy but perceive fighting religious war so highly motivated. ZERO sum game.

Options for way ahead

Existing Bases

            Existing bases lack physical/electronic and security thus making them vulnerable to terror attack. Electronic surveillance; boundary walls do add to physical security but give the soldier a defensive mindset. Be aggressive with tiered ambushes beyond perimeter with changing locations. Investing in local intelligence by keeping watch on doubtful integrity characters with police help will go a long way. Working out better surveillance on service providers      

Shift from defensive to offensive defence at vulnerable bases. Provision of bullet proof jackets, night vision devices would be pre requisite. Modification of existing operating procedures regarding opening fire may be undertaken. Opening fire on positive identification becomes extremely difficult during poor visibility and gets aggravated when terrorist adorn our uniforms. This will ensure lesser casualty and terrorists being defeated beyond perimeter. Very interesting pattern of mosques/shrines within military stations/cantonment exist close to such areas where watch can be kept and intelligence gathered in very innocent manner. Areas around basis are populated by people with suspect loyalties. Unfortunately porters; shopkeepers and other service providers move freely within cants. Collection of information/inciting vulnerable through lure of money/other favours is very easily doable. Frisking of populace around and strict vigil on so called relatives and those moving within campus with comparative ease needs to be checked.

                Electronic surveillance; boundary walls do add to physical security but give the soldier a defensive mindset. Be aggressive with tiered ambushes beyond perimeter with changing locations. Investing in local intelligence by keeping watch on doubtful integrity characters with police help will go a long way. Working out better surveillance on service providers

                Rather than wait for terrorist to attack, need to seek and destroy him by venturing out to areas in the near vicinity simultaneously enhancing local intelligence through own/police resources. Become HUNTERS rather than HUNTED

Zero sum game

Carry on with zero sum game. India looses in long run though Pak too suffer but Pak looses comparatively moderate to Indian very heavy. It’s basically status quo but unimaginative way of fighting an action. Must be discarded state away.

Border Surveillance

                Strengthen border security with all weather electronic surveillance. Terrain on border will enable few terrorists to cross over with Pak army providing fire support to divert attention. But could enhance bids foiled at border itself. Strict punishment against complacency and procedural modifications to have offensive content in guarding bases procedures. Move out of perimeter with multiple; location/pattern ambushes whilst enhancing local intelligence.

Snipers

                Sniper shooters on borders to target command and control elements and permitting no move once infiltration takes place through post to deter enemy post from undertaking this activity.  Good deterrent will help to some extent.

Covert Action

                Covert action through own borders or Baluchistan ups the ante somewhat but has significant potential of diversion of assets.  Both doable but implies upping the ante. Prisoners under death sentence would not mind undertaking this task. Come back post mission accomplishment and free to live. Extension of covert operations a win win situation but with its own risks and ramifications. Sleeper cells in Pak hinterland capable of retaliating on orders. Large number of border area people has relatives across who interact frequently and would be amenable to undertake intelligence and low quality missions and provides support to high quality missions. Liquidating terror heads based in Muzzafarabad easily doable in two night foot based operations.

Conclusion

Present modus operandi being followed by Indian army is proving to be ineffective, in fact disastrous. Giving massive advantage to Pakistan/terrorist must be discarded urgently. Modify existing procedures enabling intruder management in adverse weather by replacing on opening fire only after positive identification.

All service providers having access to unit campuses & locals in immediate vicinity must be kept under surveillance with police help.

Strengthen bases with physical/electronic capability and provide adequate wherewithal for night offensive posturing. Shift from HUNTED to HUNTER.

Border/LC rather than massive fir assaults go for sniper to kill selected command and control elements. Enhance electronic surveillance reinforcing with sub terrain sensors. Tunnels being new modus operandi, this threat needs to be countered adequately.

Covert operations up to Muzzafarabad, capital of POK or on western border via Baluchistan

INDIA A SPORTING NATION

  Rio Olympics are over and Indian contingent performance was below par. Officials and other  parasites must have had great time on tax payers money. Sporting system is corrupt;inefficient;harsh on players and unaccountable;manned by paid employees with little incentives.End of the day- nothing changes.
With PM pushing for result oriented long term preparation, there is hope of improvement. PM has asked for suggestion and many good suggestions will come but the issue is who and how sincerely are these implemented. Some thought process on the same issue.
Existing Infrastructure
Sports infrastructure creation and subsequent maintenance is long term and costly affair and must be part of long term plan.
For the present existing infrastructure created out of GOI funds must be time shared with potential sportspersons. Defence forces have huge quality sports infra spread all over in army cantonments and training institutes.Similar must be the case with railways, Air India,BSF and other PSUs and clubs sponsored by these organisations for their themselves and family members.
Military schools;Sainik Schools; some other hostel based public schools have reasonably good infra.KV;Navodyas and PSU/services run schools have quality infrastructure. Similar some colleges/Universities too have such facilities.Sports academies of states;SAI too has high quality infra. These are islands of excellence with varying quality.These have capacity and scope atleast enhancing capacities by 3/4 times by better management of resource share.Very much doable but vested interests would impede sharing unless forced and some financial incentives assured.
PROPERLY MANAGED EXISTING INFRASTRUCTURE PROPERLY MANAGED MEETS IMMEDIATE NEEDS
Long Term Infrastructure
All Universities/Colleges/schools must have sports infrastructure based on local talent;season and possible  fields of excellence. International level at universities; lower level at colleges and lowest at schools.
Sports complexes at district levels where excellence potential exist could be planned.
States must have international level facilities at the rate of one per crore of population in those fields where excellence potential exists.
Integrate defence and other PSUs in similar manner.Apex international level; second rung state level and basic school level.
Long term infra is desirable.Accessibility to all ensures healthy nation and sports excellence

Coaches
One of the crucial factors. Identify;nurture;motivate and help excel potential players peaking to fullest.
Indian coaches are better as less critical,understand better and greater comfort level with players.Contract coaches from abroad aim at  events related success.Why should they be contributing to our success.
Defence forces and others do have very good qulaity coaches passionate about excellence performance.With exposure to best practises in moden sporting world have potential to be world beaters.No doubt about their capabilities.
Players having excelled and past their prime but passionate could be ideal coaches.International exposure; skills needed;physical regimen since experienced can be best implemented.
The Talent: Catch them young
Most important is availability of correct raw material at an early stage.
In our country due to historical reasons;food habits and geographical locations, different regions provide talent as nurtured by the region. This must be tapped.To examplify- Bihari has heavy body being rice eater, makes good wrestler or weight lifter but poor agility skill/physical fitness demanding events. Adivasi from Jharkand is outstanging hockey bit poor wrestler.Very important this is identified and explited.Army has an excellent dadt base, even SAI should be having it.
School Class 1to 5 Emphasis on mental and physical exposure through yoga and sports popular in local area( applicable to non cities) .Will be possible to identify raw potential for further nurturing.
Schools: Class 6 onwards Potential kids be inducted into Sainik/Military/Navodyas and other schools having quality infrastructure.This will ensure nurturing of talent and confirmation/negation of raw material identified earlier.
Youth Sportspersons Having completed basic education and talent reasonably well established and nurtured, comes the crucial stage of moving towards excellence.Government job or way to government job ensures financial safety and accessibility to quality infrastructure.Youth wishing further studies join colleges/universities; defence forces NDA/IMA/OTA or educationally low boy sports company or sports academies and carry on for about four years.
Incentives Sports person must get huge advantage for admission at the next stage.Infact seats must be reserved for sporting talent. Coaching and other expenditure too could be partially subsidised.
Non School goers/late bloomers Some may not join formal schooling due to financial/other constrains and some may be late bloomers.Such persons get opportunity during district or college open competitions.
Sports Selection Indians excel in individual and mind games but perform poorly in physically demanding and team games. Vegetarians or ego but that is our waterloo. Focus should be on such games only as competition less and our forte
Management. Must be kept away from formal  beaucratic sporting bodies.Everyone associated with running must have excelled in sports at state level.For adminstration; running volunteers fro veterand on nomival perks would be avaiable in plenty.Financial empowerment mandatory. Apart from basic maintenance funds other should be linked with performance.Excel and be wealthy. Corporate could take on as part of CSR
Finances   State  government must create infra at dist/state level with support from Centre.BCCI/Corporate through CSR must channelise funds for good cause.
Popularity Obsession with cricket must cease. It may be money delivering golden hen for BCCI and Media but its also responsible for ruining Indian sports culture.Hockey and football are receding.This is also ruining health as youth has lost interest in physically demanding games
Summary of suggestions and Way ahead
 Map sports infra at national level and enhance accessibility by time sharing
Own passionate coaches be players having excelled at various levels
Schools/college/universities/Dist/states/Defence/PSU/SAI organise, identify,nurture talent through open competitions with good financial incentives.
Dist/state must ensure villagers and other talent not coming through formal education get an exposure.
Conduct could be rested with army in peace stations.Have the wherewithal including manpower
Policy to facilitate sports excellence and education.
Management delinked from vested interests.Accountability with timelines targets coinciding with Olympics
Long term infra expansion
Media coverage on non cricket sports.

WAR IN KASHMIR VALLEY: CHANGE OF STRATEGY

Indian Army has been losing very high number of young officers in the undeclared/proxy war in Kashmir Valley. Matter of deep concern as the bargain is killing a few terrorists at the cost of young officers. It’s a very poor bargain indeed.

During British rule of India, army followed a dictum called “last man last round”, came to be known as “not an inch of territory to be lost”. This implied army troops deployed on a piece of ground are not to retreat and die if attacked and even if odds are heavily stacked against the force. Similarly for piece of ground to be held and defended against an assaulting enemy, it needs tactical considerations and not emotional logic.

Over a period of time, armies realising that it costs heavy to train officers and men have been modifying this dictum. Israel, surrounded by maximum enemies was the first one to review and wisely so. It was changed to live another day to fight back rather than get slaughtered in hopeless situation. No wonder, it suffers least causalities in spite of very heavy violence almost on daily basis.

Fishermen fishing in our waters around Andaman and Nicobar Islands don’t mind being arrested by our security forces as they are assured of decent treatment in jails till courts pronounce judgement which is very liberal. Anyone caught by others is not arrested but knuckle cracking and sending off is the treatment. Rightly these people dread others but don’t mind stealing our fish.

Are we soft/too humane are shear incompetent to implement law with the severity it demands or nation doesn’t care for the economic costs being forced upon or is the Government of the day scared of harsh measures due to vocal but incompetent media catering more for TRPs rather than truthful reporting. Probably all combined make us a soft state incapable of tough decisions.

Keeping in view the worsening security situation which would become worse with militant Islam raising its ugly head on our borders, it’s time for review. Situation becomes worse when locals start to side the terrorists when cornered by security forces and start to act as human shields and on collateral damage taking place, every one without accountability, wants his 5 seconds of fame by quoting numerous laws and rights though it’s not applicable when terrorists undertake terror acts killing unarmed civilians. Civilians providing human shields emboldens other waiting on the other side and gives adequate munitions to all divisive forces within and foreign.

When terrorists are surrounded, hiding and firing-why should they be attacked? Wear them out and use maximum force after evicting civilians being used as hostages. Some refuse to come out use appropriate force. This will instill fear amongst terrorist and their supporters

Keeping the above in view, it may be desirable to review basic tactics with following guidelines

                Own/civilian causalities are avoided.

                Time be used as force multiplier to own advantage- wear out/no hurry

                Use technology rather than physical force

Let NGOs/political leaders (those who chest beat post an encounter) go in and motivate terrorists to surrender. Also involve local Maulavi/village seniors to negotiate

Use fire; smoke and stun grenades to kill/evict holed up terrorists

Media be kept away during conduct and video be released during operational press conference

This approach will be a win – win for security forces and the nation, only looser will be terrorists and Pak, Isn’t that all we wish