Indo-Chinese Informal summit meeting at Wuhan

After strained relation post 73 day long Doklam stand-off, two powerful neighbours are making an endeavour to reset way ahead. There are many serious irreconcilable differences as well as huge opportunities. Strategic and economic cooperation and not belligerence is the way ahead.

Chinese arrogance in NSG & Pak terror veto & CPEC going through POK are well known and its difficult for India to fallback on any of the issues. For China CPEC/BRI is most prestigious investment which will hurl China into dominating economic super power. Its fear of SLOC passing through Indian Ocean & Malacca straight with potential of chocking Chinese economy is Chinese biggest fear. Chinese unity is again one of the big fears . Muslims in Uighur in Xingjiang region and Tibet plateau both are restive and Chinese have deployed massive resources to manage discontent through use of brutal physical force, isolating areas/populace from rest of the world and of course forcing demographic change by settling Hans & huge investments. However, these measures are causing backlash with very severe ramifications, in worst case scenarios, may lead to Chinese implosion aka USSR. Finally Chinese booming economy is dependent on exports overwhelming markets through cheap goods via huge subsidies. Its led to local markets closing down leaving millions jobless and huge trade deficit. Acceptable initially but being resented due huge trade imbalances. This has led to dumping penalties and resistance to cheap goods dumping. Chinese economy and unemployment would be hit adding to social unrest and government becoming vulnerable. Chinese investments are also under scanner due stringent conditions, making host nations heavily dependent and vulnerable to economic blackmail. Nations are scared or extremely cautious of Chinese investments having learnt of consequences faced by others. China is seen as brutally demanding and coercive partner treating host nations with contempt.

India is rising economy thus darling of world investors due huge under penetrated markets. Its appetite for consumer goods is unparalleled. India's defence modernisation is huge attraction for world arms manufacturers. Top arms manufacturers are willing to produce in India as well as willing to share cutting edge classified technology in exchange of orders. In soft power, India is miles ahead and it is perceived as caring, benevolent nation.

Chinese domination of Indian Ocean or Asian region is unacceptable to India due its economy and stature. Against Chinese belligerence India desires cooperation and peaceful resolutions of disagreements.

Chinese wish list

India’s support for CPEC/BRI

Less pressure on Pak on terror front

No trade restrictions to Chinese companies in telecommunications.

Control HH Dalai Lama

Be in Chinese camp or Neutral but not anti

Stay away from oil exploration in South China Sea in conjunction with Vietnam

No Brahmos to Vietnam

Indian wish list

NSG membership

No economic activity in POK.

Joint Ventures in Afghanistan.

Quite borders. Pak controlling terror export to India/Afghanistan.

No unfriendly activity on borders

Investments in India.

Opening Chinese markets to Indian firms to ensure balanced trade

There is bound to be discussion on overlapping interests/concerns. Our neighbours being lured by China due to money power causing deep concern/mistrust.

Syria, Iran vs West’s belligerence and managing towards beneficial culmination. West not cancelling Iran’s nuclear deal concern for both.

Middle East oil prices management mechanism too would be discussed.

Challenge

Both leaders are very strong nationalists and wish to take nations to greater heights of success and glory. Cooperation suits both but due to overlapping areas of interest it would demand great statesmanship to come to balanced posture without losing long term strategic interests/allies.

World Oil price management, peace in Middle East, Afghanistan and investments should be doable to advantage of both.

CPEC, Pak & terror, NSG, trade balancing are issues which would demand tough negotiations and give & take. PM Modi would be somewhat vulnerable due elections in 19 to give any concessions which could be exploited as sell out by opposition parties but extremely job creating investments with short term gestation periods would be desirable. Xingping would like access to Indian markets without any Chinese specific restrictions is one area where agreement is doable as win win situation.

Great opportunity with fresh decisions for resetting future through cooperation could pave the way for both rising to top as economic and military powers. Both strong nationalist leaders would aim at that without antagonising own interests is tough challenge