US
led forces including France and Britain carried out missile attacks
on Syrian territory alleging these to be chemical research/ storage &
weapon manufacturing facilities. Potentially a very complex and
dangerous situation could flow if opposing forces cross red lines.
Syria
is a Shia state with Iran & Iraq supporting it on religious lines
and has military backing of Russia. Lined up against in addition to
US led coalition forces are Saudis land Sunni world. Thus
*
Sunni VS Shia both fighting far religious supremacy in the Muslim
world with both temporal heads, i.e. Saudis & Iran contesting.
It has far reaching ramifications.
*
US led forces of France and England against and Russia far Syria.
Russia
has deployed advisors and weapons within Syria. It also includes
the deadly anti air craft system capable of shooting incoming
missiles and supposedly best available in the world as of date.
Russia will stand with Syria as its credibility would be at stake
should it back down or Syrians face defeat. Prez Putin will not
accept and will positively up the ante as worst case scenario.
Iran has reasonable quality forces and high quality terrorist
organisation called Hezbollah operating from Lebanon targeting Israel periodically.
Should
Hezbollah target Israel, then the situation becomes extremely
complex. Complete Middle East including powerful militias being
unleashed, would, in worst case scenario, set the stage of dreaded
Clash of Civilisation theory or next big war engulfing one and all.
With oil production under threat it will lead to economic catastrophe
for all economies of the world.
US
& western powers do not wish use of chemical gases on Syrian populace opposing Prez Asad Syria but supported by west. Empirically, US has minimal credibility about its claims of Syria using chemical
weapons. It claimed it had evidence against Saddam Hussein whilst
attacking Iraq but it was never proven though Saddam was toppled
leading to chaos in Iraq and rise of most dreaded terrorist
organisation ISIS. Prez Trump, Prez Macron and PM May are facing
severe crisis on domestic front and this being a ploy to divert
attention is not ruled out.
Western
Alliance has fortunately targeted only chemical weapons associated
facilities through precision weapons thereby minimising collateral
damage. It ensures situation is not aggravated wherein Russia is
forced to get involved which could be extremely dangerous. Russia too
would like to ensure Syrian regime and Prez Asad survive and
western supported forces don’t become excessively powerful. Thus a
stalemate suits all.
With
Russia & Shia world on one side and US on the other. The
ramifications would be extremely severe for US war in Afghanistan.
With Pakistan already moving into Chinese cradle , US would have
antagonised all neighbouring states capable of ensuring stable
Afghanistan. That in all probability may not happen. Antagonised
neighbours would like US to get struck in Afghanistan quagmire and
suffer humiliation before pulling out as it happened in Vietnam.
Unstable Afghanistan would be bad for India and its policy of cutting
Pakistan to size by using Chahbar to access CAR and Afghanistan. Any
setback for US in Afghanistan would help China to move in and occupy
the vacuum much to the disadvantage of India and rest of the world.
India has friendly relations with all and has reasons for peaceful region. Our dependence on oil and huge populace working there. Neutral stand is the only option. India” s relations with all countries are very friendly, it should behind the scenes play as a moderator to prevent escalation.
Its
very complex situation in Syria with potential of going out of
control with disastrous ramifications. One hopes Prez Trump can
control the situation through visionary statesmanship. Should he
fail, US will suffer huge embarrassments in Middle East and
Afghanistan. India has big stakes but little influence and not in a
position to take sides. Our interest lies in reasonably stable
region.
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