AFGHANISTAN: EMERGING POWER PLAY

Afghanistan has been historically a nation which has never been enslaved. However others have repeatedly tried unsuccessfully however this struggle carries on. Nomadic and hardy tribals; extremely hostile terrain and weather conditions; underdeveloped but strategically located. It connects Asian region with rest of the western world by land route. Its location close to China & Russia makes it suitable encircling cum surveillance base. It reportedly has huge quantum of untapped strategic materials reserves.

Anyone establishing permanent base or stable & sovereign aligned Afghanistan is unacceptable to China/Russia/Pakistan and Iran. Thus super power play continues making Afghanistan into permanent battle ground with opponents changing.

None succeeds because Pakistan considers it to be its strategic depth on western side and if Indian influence goes up, Pakistan perceives its decimation. It encourages non state actors by providing safe sanctuaries, finances, training, motivation, arms, leadership and takes care of all other issues. Key to peace in Afghanistan lies with Pakistan. It uses terrorists motivated with Wahhabi ideology of Jihad & HOORS await in heaven. With China now sole financier cum all weather friend of Pakistan, it will only embolden Pak as Chinese don’t wish to see US/Indian influence in this region. Pakistan will continue fermenting trouble till Afghanistan has a regime loyal to it alone.

US unfortunately has managed to antagonise possible allies capable of countering unholy China-Pak nexus. Russia and Iran encircling Afghanistan from North and West having loyal tribes are interested in peaceful Afghanistan as restive tribals adversely impact neighbouring tribes. Not healthy sign as there is apprehension of terror spreading to such areas. US by default has only India on its side but reluctant to commit military forces due to domestic compulsions.

Line up in Afghanistan is US & reluctant India vs Pakistan nudged by China to ensure US fails & Indian influence minimised. Iran & Russia would be happy to see US being defeated due to animosity created by US. This new alignment of forces doesn’t augur well for Afghanistan to become functional peaceful nation in the near future

SMARTPOWER

China uses a term known as CMP or Comprehensive Military Power. It implies totality of war waging resources including non military. In fact, its more relevant when it comes to deciding outcome of war.

Indian military hierarchy is thinking of two to two and half front war. Should that fructify, this would be horrible scenario and indicate disaster on all fronts of CMP. Nations must ensure if there is war, we fight as alliance against the adversary rather than adversaries combining to fight against us.

Indian thinkers, on the other hand, focus on quantities. Numbers of men and equipment. Its small part of the whole and would be decisive only in minor skirmishes or isolated, locally confined battles.

In terms of defence budget and quantity of military equipment Chinese have huge advantage, however, in terms of quality India does have an advantage to large extent. Border infrastructure and cutting edge technology like Cyber; AI, Space, stealth etc. India is a laggard.

There is this little understood or calculable factor called the SOFT POWER & SMART POWER. This is non aggressive invasion attacking the mind in a manner that victim doesn’t even comes to know he is under attack. In fact he is a willing partner as its WIN-WIN situation. Influence of US brands- foods; clothing; healthcare; movies computer games etc is worldwide. Apart from willing usage it brings with the concept of materialism; cultural, democracy,free society, dissent, crtisicing/challenging state policies. A thought which is alien to most cultures, thereby it threatens the cohesiveness of society. For Communists or other closed/dictatorial societies this posed biggest threat with high probability of implosion/ coup de tat for powers controlling the destiny of the nation.

India has massive edge in soft power sector. India’s cultural heritage; yog birthplace of major religions, foods, diaspora, cinema, IT might ,freedom of citizen and press; cricket and latest being ISA with HQ in India are pillars of soft power. Even Chinese pro government paper, Global Time, accepted the fact that India has been able to better exploit its soft power. Strengthening of diaspora and furthering our soft power is a strategy capable of delivering huge. Goodwill amongst masses even where state may be pro China but masses more comfortable with India. Even China has huge following for Yog/Bollywood.

Every democratic government and autocratic to some extent are sensitive to people’s sentiments. This where soft power plays crucial role of influencing minds of hostile power. Its lie terrorists sleeper cell getting activated just at the right time. Very potent weapon of future and few nations have yet harnessed or orchestrated this dimension. With cyber power almost exploding, capability of soft power gets further influenced. In fact, very interestingly, where autocratic governments try to block free information flow this offers credible option.

This force to be powerful must be invested as long term measure. Diaspora being focal point, our win-win ideas should slowly creep into minds of youth and others in the country of interest. This can be called SMART POWER, i.e., converting soft power through proper planning and prolonged implementation focussing on PEOPLE to be capable of influencing their governments.

EMERGING CHINESE THREAT

Presidents Trump is quite clear in his approach, America First; if it antagonises its traditional allies , then so be it. Benevolence attitude since demise of Britain as dominant power has taxed US economy heavy and no previous President was bold enough to take such varying stand but Trump is different and being devoid of any baggage, he takes decisions best or US. Cutting down/reducing some strategic military ventures’ liability would burden many free loaders.

Rising China is desirous of occupying space being ceded by US. China has the financial might and slowly developing cutting edge military technologies by investing huge in its Academics & research establishment. Being quite ruthless its been stealing technologies from all over without caring for ethics and legalities. This has helped China to leap frog in military technology. Thus it has the potential to fill the void.

China’s rise is scaring most of the world nations used to international laws and treaties for its conduct and resolving disputes through consensus whereas Chinese prefer use force to ensure its right of way. Chinese rise is scary and causing quite a lot of discomfort amongst all. China sees India as biggest threat at regional level and has potential of creating powerful alliances to counter Chinese threat. It would aim to keep India embroiled with Pakistan and creating crisis or raking up irritants on regular basis, through proxies in South Asia.

China has its huge vulnerabilities too. Rogue nations of North Korea & Pakistan will keep on embarrassing China on its high moralistic ground whenever it takes. Tibet & Xingziang are restive and use of brute force attracts adverse opinion unacceptable to powerful nation. Islamic terror is creeping in spite of drastic measures initiated by China. Slowing economy; rising inflation; unemployment; demanding population and corruption are very severe problems which are going to grow in magnitude. Few genuine friends, unholy alliances and total mistrust hallmark of Chinese international relationships. Economically its blood sucker with interests rates that would cripple any economy.

Chinese have some peculiarities.

One, supremely egoistic with tremendous pride in its past and desires to dominate the world.

Second extremely patient during negotiations. In fact masters in using time to cause attrition on opponent by shear delays.

Thirdly its extremely sensitive to dissent and any threat to its unity. Tibet, Xingxiang or Islamic terror could dismember China. Its really scared of these forces.

Lastly it uses mind game and total resources, economic, blackmail, sanctions etc to force favourable decision without combat, war being last resort which is best avoided. AND IT RESPECTS STRENGTH.

India has plenty of options without confronting China directly militarily. Alliances with own modern and powerful defence forces is the key.

Indian economy is rising and Chinese slowing down. Any trade restriction would hurt China real bad adding to its unemployment and dissent amongst masses with severe ramifications.

Disturbed POK and Western Pakistan hampering CPEC. China is investing billions to access Gwadar and Middle East Oil so that its vulnerable SLOC/ Jugular at extremely vulnerable Malacca straight are taken care of to a large extent. India can ensure turbulence with Afghanistan/US/Iran aiding. Drag China to ICJ for construction activity in POK which is our area under illegal occupation of Pakistan.

Economically weak, impoverished and internally unstable Pakistan with radicals; mullahs and terrorists calling shots would be nightmare of Chinese ambitions of safe Gwader passage. With intelligent covert action it can be Chinese Vietnam experience.

HH Dalai Lama and Buddhist world over congregating in India from time to time and Buddhist tourist from Japan, Myanmar and other countries visiting monasteries and HH would be great pain for China. An issue with tremendous soft power potential dreaded by China. Budhists in Nepal and Myanmar must be encouraged to interact with Tibetian Buddhists, great soft power application with very positive ramifications. Annual international Buddhist meetings in India under tutelage of HH Dalai Lama would energise and unite this community.

SAARC nations economic integration on all soft power issues. China trying to control governments through economic lucrative offerings but masses more in harmony with India. This must be further strengthened. Masses are what matters.

Above measures demand proactive aggressive orientation by our strategic planners. The present tendency of Meekly Defensive approach is disastrous giving all options to adversary. Time for offensive defensive; use of mind; exploiting Chinese traits and using our massive soft power to deter China from any war.

Indian army must have adequate contingency plans to deter any localised skirmishes by quickly mobilising resources by having quality satellite/human intelligence to ensure timely and effective response.

In any hostile activity with Chinese, AIM SHOULD BE DETERRENCE. Loss of face is traumatic for Chinese establishment and it would avoid any confrontations where outcome would be a stalemate. It would resort to border skirmishes on plea of border demarcation issues or at best localised conflicts with threats of escalation wherein weal political leadership may loose its nerves.

On the seafront, navy is already into quality alliances with other regional navies and ensuring 24×7 monitoring of hostile shipping activity.

India can’t and must not fight 2/3 front war, its sure recipe for disaster. Our polity and diplomatic force has to ensure this does not happen. Domination at sea and deterrence on land and air/space/cyber and emerging frontiers adequately meets our defence needs of territorial integrity and safeguarding areas of interests. Nation must invest in AI and other emerging dual edge cutting technology. Soon technology and not brute military force will decide winning side, so combination of lean and thin army coupled with powerful technology must be the way ahead.

MANAGING INDO- PAKISTAN RELATIONSHIP BETTER

Pakistan appears to be continuously troubling India in-spite of its unilateral goodwill gestures like Most favoured Nation status and being magnanimous in releasing water from Himalayan riparian rivers of Jammu & Kashmir. But Pakistan refuses to reciprocate positively.

Pakistan also has successfully managed to control escalation levels as deemed appropriate to its national interests with India being poor & apologetic responder in both in quality & quantum of response. Since its not being hit hard where it matters, Pakistan doesn’t care about human loss of life or en mass movement to deeper areas to avoid shelling.

What is that Pakistan achieves with zero sum behaviour?

In Pakistan Army calls the shots and its survival by being perceived by masses as the only saviour that can protect Pakistan from hostile India, thus its ensured no politician becomes powerful enough to change this perception. Radicalised army, mullahs indoctrination of illiterate youth provides enough raw material as canon fodder foolishly believing about HOORS awaiting in ZANNAT.

Pakistan has successfully leveraged US; Saudi Arabia;OPEC; Islamic countries oil wealth and of late Chinese for aid/loans/grants on various pretexts. But most are reluctant to fund Pakistan army any more, more so after US coming down hard though Chinese are trying to make up to some extent. But Chinese are known to be tough loan givers unlike Americans.

China has been trying to arm/finance Pakistan only to the extent that it keeps being a nuisance to India thereby bogging it down to regional level. Win win for both.

Internal situation in Pakistan is quite precarious. Extreme poverty; military flourishing but masses deprived, mullahs wealthy and powerful but youth unemployable being illiterate and unskilled. Panjabis domination is leading to resentment amongst all other provinces- Sind; FATA; Baluchistan; Pakistan Occupied Kashmir are rising in rebellion against Islamabad. Mullahs backed huge armed groupings not under control of any central authority keep using violence for own agendas. Its amazing how & why has Pakistan survived for so long with such mega problems? Army has exploited this fear of masses by ensuring weak polity and reasonably understanding judiciary.

Pakistan army has kept alive threat of nuclear weapon usage thereby ensuring neutralisation of conventional inferiority & decision dilemma for Indian planners. Since world is extremely sensitive of nuclear weapons, Pak believes India will not to go for full fledged conventional war. Pakistan has put India on defensive & embroiled in internal affairs of counter insurgency. Sorry state for any army. Master stroke by any standards.This carefully nurtured state of affairs has led to perception that Army is the only saviour. Pakistan grand strategists need to be commended for boxing into state of helplessness and our strategists failure to generate suitable befitting response.

Pakistan army for its survival must keep Kashmir & terror in J&K alive. This is the root cause of the Indo-Pak problem.

Does India has option or it must continue to bleed?

Line of control/Border trans border shelling was the norm in early 2000 till AB Vajpayee government put an end to it. Killings on civilians and uniformed personal on both sides with zero-sum results was stopped by statesman PM Vajpayee but seems to be restarting. It achieves nothing and not an option.

Pakistan army image and/or economy being hurt are the only ways to moderate army’s behaviour.

Covert action; water disruption; supporting dissenting elements in PO/Baluchistan; isolating Pakistan at world faura & strangulating terror funding simultaneously extending reciprocal development & technological assistance to ensure leverage. Development and border peace will ensure people’s change of perception about their army. More facilities to aggrieved families; educational scholarships to POK & Balochis; raking up human rights violations In Baluchistan; helping Balochis to take Pakistan army to International Court of Justice for missing masses.

Indian politicians and masses must cooperate with Government rather than demanding immediate retaliation.

Defeat Pakistan army through Mind game as propagated in Gita by driving wedge between masses & army. Pacify LC/Border and initiate indirect actions enumerated in this article.

Indian Society : Way ahead

We are living in a very interesting but contradictory times. Tremendous materialistic progress but degraded values. Excessive greed, manipulation and little in terms of compassion or charity is order of the day. Some of the other major flaws are:-

* Little creativity but great in rote.

* Inadequate leadership but obedient followers.

* Blame Karmas/God for misfortune but refuse to change/alter oneself

* Criticise all but without giving intelligent alternative.

* Visit temples frequently with wish a TO DO bribing him minor gratification. Filthy temples with long lines of beggars but little effort by devotees to cleanse system. Excessive greed with little charity.

* Surrendering before stronger & expecting someone else- God/Government to help

* Oldest religion with tremendous inherited wisdom but worst in implementation.

* Goddesses controlling all virtues but women folk ill-treated

* Preach World is one family but little contribution towards society upliftment

* Believe in AATMA but treat other kinds of life forms with disdain

* Quote texts but few have mastered these

* Wise men in all fields of arts/science & warfare but study western experts.

*Though great heritage but inferiority complex leading to be defensive about own past till approved by others.

* Too concerned about others’ opinions without taking stand even where right.

* Excessive status quo and strong resistance to change things including thought Scientific temperament absent

* Age old rituals/suspicions/Gurus have predominant control in life

* Mastering mind taught by our rishis but few practise the art for exploiting potential to serve humanity

*Me, my family, my clan, my religion -that is priority. India enslaved for long periods of history & divisive tendencies still continue

* Too tolerant & forgiving. Don’t stand for right & forgive wrongdoers. Manipulators taken advantage of it.

*Excessive populace with excessive huge on all limited natural resources.

Our history is of divided, enslaved nation which suffering transforming from riches to poverty. This is still happening with strong internal/external forces augmenting each other. We need to initiate some of the measures given below, lest enslaved again.

*Get rich.

*Cleanliness of society, environments from known ills including filth and corruption.

* Scientific temper and creativity. Relearning our ancient wisdom; putting that through wisdom of modern means where available. Keep reinventing & value addition to Tog/Ayurveda/Meditation/Aartis in temples & other rituals

*Healthy positive debate based on knowledge & accepting dissenting views as part of knowledge evolution.

* Pride in our own Nation/society/wisdom/spirituality/diversity/festivities

* Celebrate life. Indians are known for enjoying life through dance/dramas/music/songs/festivals/religious trips/foods etc

* Shun negative media and political leadership dividing society

* Export trained human resource. Indian sub continent can not support unlimited population. Western nations and Russia in desperate need of skilled manpower.

* Encourage charity. Sikhs and Islam encourage charity in big way. We need to follow

* Eradicate caste cancer and associated ills.

* Care for nature by encouraging harmonious living.

Time has come for India to become strong as society as our other parameters are moving upwards like economy and military might. Weak/divided society encourages enslavement- must never happen again. Enough of slavery

INDIA : QUALITY VS QUANTITY

India is in the process of developing at a rapid rate. However Priority appears to be quantity and not quality. Though quantity, too, is important but crucial is quality. Ideal mix of both is mandatory if we wish to reach our goals as enlightened; empowered, society; self confident and proud citizenry.

Quality control is demand of international markets as well as domestic consumer too demands quality at least cost. That is the big challenge and option is simple produce or perish. Our Government service providers, who are reasonably well paid or either incompetent or corrupt. Sole motive being creating wealth for self by any means, output/accountability is of in-consequence.

Our system in place is very elaborate with adequate checks and balances but for the delivery.

Puss are unproductive due labour unions refuse to reform or facilitate modern technology induction fearing loss of jobs in future. Defence research organisations; universities and institutes of excellence, with exception of miniscule minority have become mass mediocre product churners with little employability or competence.

India has maximum rules making life of honest entrepreneur near hellish. Everyone takes his cut but accountability who cares. Impure food products; buildings violating laws; schools hardly functional. When flaw comes to light, everyone gets away. If punished, things will improve. Governance with accountability and transparency and quick punishment for defaulters could significantly improve.

The crux lies in accountability of organisations and punishing guilty for failure. Assured perks then why bother about output. Accountability must be factored in and must be enforced urgently.

Schools and other institutes of learning have become profiteering ventures. Quality of teachers in government schools in Central India is extremely low. Intake may have been on basis of reservation or political pressure but its no excuse for destruction of future. Giving good marks either by teachers or through cheating facilitates jump to next level of learning and it carries on. Greatest causality is professional competence. Teachers and professors once get government job are assured of job safety, promotions and perks and of course making extra money by flaunting rules. There is need of periodic skill testing examinations by the department. One up testing should suffice with selective miniscule random testing by superiors in the departmental chain. Incompetence or cheating by superior must lead to his dismissal. Weak could be given extra coaching during breaks but must pass test to be retained in service. For higher levels, should be left to Principles/VC but with similar proviso. Any complaint be independently investigated, any case of cheating, heads role.

This will ensure teachers remain updated with latest developments in their subjects within and abroad as applicable. Retention of efficiency tests are conducted by Army to ensure crucial skills don’t become weak. Failure leads to serious consequences. Implementing in government departments, can have very positive ramifications in improving quality.

Whistle blowers or impacted masses reporting against government employees who are absent from duty or doing illegal work should be encouraged. This is possible with modern technology.

Accountability, competence and outstanding quality of end product must become key to human resource development. Failure implies, India will become economically developed but with serious social fissures with drastic ramifications leading to criminalisation of those unemployed

 India must focus on quality and retention of efficiency of government employees. This could be within respective departments with miniscule check by higher authorities. Any complaints of failure or nepotism imply heavy penalty. Failure to perform must invite punishment for implementer and supervisee, thereby ensuring system delivering. Governance and quality of government employees will ensure balanced qualitative superior future India

KASHMIR ISSUE: ANOTHER VIEW

Backdrop

Kashmir situation appears to be worsening with no solution in site. Government is meandering in its policy become almost directionless. Many experts are suggesting policies which failed to deliver in past with minor modifications.

Challenges

Wahhabi thought. Saudi TV; banned terror advocate Zakir Naik hate speeches aiming to change thinking of masses is biggest challenge facing state and Central government today. Perception or battle of hears and minds most crucial in agitated populace. India seems to be loosing this battle .This will have extremely serious consequences. ISIS flag, cheering Pakistan cricket team are minor issues when compared with loosing this battle. If India doesn’t fight Wahhabi idea battle aggressively and urgently, populace alienation is assured with devastating ramifications.

Separatists game plan. Exploit fear of masses by Indian /Hindu domination. Successfully in connivance with politicians evicted all Kashmiri Pandits and taken away their business and properties. Creating hurdles in their return by claiming will not permit separate township thus ensuring none returns due fear. Lots of traditional names of towns/religious places have already been changed

Localising problem. Sunni Muslims led by separatists are calling shots today. Unelected with no mass base but funded by Pakistan and own state appears non decisive. Giving these separatists all facilities but don’t curtail their venomous propaganda against India. Violence is confined to few districts and minority populace support in these areas only. Media makes it appear J&K is on the boil,its far from the truth. Urgent need to localise issue rather than hold complete state as hostage to happenings in and around Gagarin.

Geographical Peculiarities. Leh and Jammu are district regions is well known. But thaws not known is, in Kashmir region, huge populace staying between CL and Shamsabari massive mountain range are Gujars and Bakarwals. These people are somewhat nomadic in lifestyle but highly knowledgable about the terrain cum infiltration routes. Big assest in fighting Pak based infiltration and highly willing to support. Similarly people staying South of Pir Panjal in Jammu region are as good.

Vested Interests. Many organisations; political parties and NGOs have own agendas. Anti India stance is big vote catcher and assures financial support from across. This is damaging the psyche of youth and masses leading to enlarged anger against the state.

Ramifications

Aspiration of common man in valley are same as anywhere else. Government job; financial security; religious freedom and physical security including safe living environments.

Governance is big causality. Common man is biggest sucker and he is angry. Youth deprived of schooling; business suffers and terrorists keep scaring them and bombs ensure insecurity of life leading to psychosomatic diseases. This pent up anger rightly fuels mass anger further leading to despair and helplessness. Heaven on earth has become hell due manipulation of counter forces

Way Ahead

Past experience indicates economic packages etc. have little significance and talks cum outreach to segments are inconclusive due to the fact that Pakistan is calling shots through separatists who are being given undue importance by media/Governments in power. Own government is appeasing them inspire of well documented sins of these leaders.

Pakistan will continue to be our neighbour till it implodes or colonised by China. Its emotionally uncomfortable with rising India and happy Kashmir masses. Thus it will continue interfering till state is ineffective in governing. This is a fact of life and we need to live with it.

Radical plan which has the potential of deflating and solving Kashmir is suggested. Many will ridicule but have no better alternatives, therefore worth considering.

Relocate Capital. Srinagar has become centre of gravity of Sunni/Wahhabi/separatists activities. Being state Capital gives easy access to all facilities like connectivity; jobs; medical; education and all modern day luxuries. Relocate Capital to Non disturbed areas. Once this is done Pak/separatists agenda weakens by almost half.

Kashmiri Pandirs Return. Rehabilitate Kashmiri Pandits back in the valley. Whereas going back to ancestoral homes is not workable option new townships astride Mughal Road or south of Srinagar is doable and workable option.

Integrate. Ghetto mentality of Kashmiri Muslims is doing greatest damage to the community. Distrust of others is ruining idea of India in thier minds. Let all rules be applied uni formally and do away with special status. Fear psychosis created by some dynasties, nothing will happen as majority benefits. However, to allay fears of masses, this be implemented in Jammu; Leh and areas beyond Shamsabari. On seeing benefits, people will themselves demand its implementation.

Isolate. Srinagar and few disturbed districts around be isolated and put under martial law to check terror with force it needs for neutralisation. In about an years time, terrorism can be decimated and vanished by our security forces.

Elected Reps. MLAs and Panchayats along with SHOs can mobilise masses into fighting for their rights rather than being slaughtered by terrorists like cattle. Most of Government employees vanish during snow from border areas and elected reps are in cosiness of state Capital. Total disconnect with zero governance. Panchayats have done great job. Combination of these organs to ensure quality governance can tun the tide.

WHAM. Battle of hearts and minds is responsibility of state government and elected representatives. Grievance redressal and other issues of resolved in time along with development will ensure masses slowly align with state. Unfortunately, biggest problem is lowest in priority for state governments. Army is doing its bit but it has severe limitations. State government in Srinagar needs to make it top most priority.

Cyber and Mass Media. Internet and its applications have tremendous potential in mass mobilisation; awareness; spreading truth or grievances redressal. Pakistan has beaten India on this crucial front. Terrorists have used it with devastating consequences in recent past. Wahhabi are transmitting their ideas into Kashmiri homes. This is most dangerous and must be countered on priority.

Money Flow from Across. Choke money flow and many issue get resolved. For some reasons government has shut its eyes and paying price for ignoring.

Separatists. Isolate and expose these unelected. Big culprits, enjoying all perks and government facilities with own kids in government jobs or abroad but others being given money to pelt stones. Time to destroy these stooges and move them out of Valley to probably A & N Islands or Rajasthan jails.

Conclusion

Kashmir has reached state of hopelessness due to combined effort of some dynasties treating it as personal fiefdoms and Centre quietly accepting fait accompli. Many past solutions have failed and State is moving from bad to worse. Some radical suggestions have been made, capable of diffusing and eliminating alienation of masses with rest of India.