Background
The war fighting keep changing due
to new ideas; experiences and of course technology. As per majority exponents
next war would be more of minds than physical head on combat. Non state actors
having access to dangerous weapon systems and access to high technology re here
to stay for sometimes are adding new dimensions and forcing existing defence
forces world over to review both tactics and strategy. Conventional armies have
been blamed, perhaps rightly so, far preparing for the last war. This is due to
comfort level of experience; uncertainty about future and of course limited
exposure in the field of science and technology as most of it is classified.
Modernisation is an urgent financial compulsion.With war waging/supporting machines is becoming prohibitive and impacting development. Manpower too is becoming costly. Thus the option is to identify core priorities and spend money based on priorities.
Threats
New threats on the horizon are
non-state actors using nuclear dirty bomb; biological or chemical weapons. It
suits their strategy perfectly, human delivery in terms of suicide bombers
available in plenty; ease of availability and usage; strikes fear amongst
masses and low cost.
Cyber-attacks is another extremely
but disastrous threat looming large. It has the potential of ruining economies
plus interfering with almost all systems using cyber space. Various preventive measures
have limited capability and can be breeched without too much difficulty.
Space is the next potent and
dangerous threat. It has the potential to devastate economy and neutralise most
of the command, control, communication, intelligence; surveillance systems and
redirect guided weapon systems.
Mind control/perception management/soft
power/smart power- calls it whatever one wishes to name it. By controlling huge
masses of populace through propaganda; NGOs; doctored reports; aids cum grants-
it’s not too difficult to have frustrated population looking for an option for
betterment. Once this mass reaches critical stage of opinion forming, it can
tilt decision making which may not be best suited due to pressures through
seemingly patriotic and vigilant citizens. Implosion/balkanisation would be the
outcome of this warfare- Iran and USSR are ripe examples.
India is comparatively more
vulnerable due to divisive polity; NGOs; religious conversions; poverty;
dynastic and corrupt polity; corrupt, non performing bureaucracy; biased media;
delayed justice delivery system and lack of basic amenities and lack of avenues
for growth com empowerment. This is manifesting as insurgency in Central India;
dissatisfaction in North Eastern India and repeated flare ups due to scarce
resources at times engineered.
Threat
Spectrum
All these treats capable of
hammering the integrity of the nation are beyond conventional and physical
boundaries. In fact majority of threat manifestations will be non-border based
as other more potent means exist. Hereafter threat management will need to
cater for
ANYWHERE
ANYTIME
ANYSHAPE
WAY AHEAD
Thought- Thought process needs to
enlarge from borders to within and without. Threat could manifest anywhere,
anytime and in varying shapes. Good old ideas of operational seasons; places;
weather etc. are comparatively less important.
Mind warfare- perception
management will be crucial for voluntary support of populace for gaining real
time physical intelligence
Mental Mobility capability to
take on varying type of threats without time consuming detailed orientation
training needs very high level of training at all times. Commanders will need
to be professionally on the go. Leaders need more exposure through courses and
research.
Intelligence As always will be
the deciding factor to ensure QUALITY of victory. Wins like Kargil where the
nation suffered very heavy casualties are not acceptable. It was a command and
intelligence failure of grave magnitude.
Strategic Mobility Capability to
quickly locate troops at the point of decision would be crucial for quick
crisis diffusion. Air mobility is essential. Once achieved number of troops
could be significantly reduced.
Harmony of
Resources
Feeling of exclusivity and treating others as incompetent
needs to be shed. Tremendous resources and capability exist with Civil Police
and Para Military forces in terms of manpower; equipment, experience and local
knowledge. Once integrated with overall plans, could help army to focus on
priority threats.
Lean and
Mean
Excessive
obsession with more manpower implies more power is a fallacy in the modern
world warfare. Less in numbers but smart manpower is needed. Go for technology-
man mix to deliver optimum results.
Youth vs
Experience
There is
always a dilemma of having a young army leading to early retirement and host of
well-known problems becoming acute in job starved nation. Useful option lies in
moving superseded officers and these men into skills needed for new type of
warfare as well as manning the supporting services for the defence forces like
audit; land management; canteens; MES and of course in Cyber, perception,
intelligence, civil affairs, birder area populace, environmental issues and
undertaking research on issues of import as deemed appropriate by service HQ
etc.
Ministry of
Defence
Urgent need
for reorganisation due to total mistrust between uniform and civilians. It’s
more for inability to understand each other’s functioning methodology and
excessive emphasis on paper work rather than speed of decision making. Once
done, many problems will fall in line.
Veterans
Vital
interface between the serving and society. Crucial for a genuine feedback on
all issues crucial for army. This could help in providing trained manpower if
proper mechanism put in place
Implementation
It’s near
impossible for status quo to organisations to change for variety of reasons. Some
of these include power shift; loss of perks; enhanced accountability and
mistrust etc. Only way to force a change is laid out by people with no personal
agenda and backed by those wielding authority.
Commission
of eminent citizens like Rattan Tata chair a commission where in all stake
holders give presentation. These include services; DRDO; PSUs, veterans and
strategic thinkers. Commission comes up with a way ahead which is got
collective wisdom of all; not troubled with past baggage; no personal agenda
thereby ensuring best as required for the nation
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