The recent indicators
of China- Pakistan (CHIPAK) cooperation aimed at posturing towards India in Pak
held Kashmir and post US withdrawal from Afghanistan, is not a comfortable
situation for India. Whatever be our public posturing, the fact is that it is not
possible to take on a super power and a military strong, nuclear capable and
partially rogue state. Both the political and defence leaderships must be
having sleepless nights over the issue notwithstanding the public posturing.
The challenge of facing
the threat becomes all the more difficult because our leadership has built a reputation of soft state too much bothered
about the international opinion and a painfully slow decision making process and
also we seem to be faced with internal problems of very serious nature. Our
near total dependence on military imports makes us vulnerable. Coupled with our
inability to define a long term threat and plan to strategize it beyond our
redundant non alignment movement which has had its days of glory.
Krishna and Chankya are
our very own best political masterminds of managing comprehensive threats in a
practical manner. Unfortunately our political leadership and the set of
advisers appear to have dumped or forgotten the wisdom. Chinese on the other
hand follow their Wise man Sun Tzu, a master mind of state and military craft
and utilisation of might in an integrated manner.
Look at China’s roll
out of countering Indian threat
Made Pak into its ally and totally dependent- militarily,
economically, politically and almost aligned their politico-military interests.
Invested very heavily without any military participation to
increase influence post US withdrawal
Invested in Burma in road communication; development of
ports; oil exploration and military support
Invested in Sri Lanka, development of Hambantota deep sea
port; financial support and bailed it out a number of times from embarrassment
at international fora.
Invested in Bangladesh in ports and supported with military
hardware.
It’s pumping in huge amounts of money in weaning away Nepal
from India.
Its brow beat the powers to accept the fait accompli of
Tibet in spite of HH Dalai Lama having an aura in international fora.
It’s willing to invest in India- huge mutual trade; wishes
to invest in telecom and infrastructure of which we are rightly distrustful.
Thus China has been
very forcefully encircling India with military basis, in spite of the fact that
all these states are closer to India than China. Our culture; religion;
heritage; values; connectivity and emotional bonding’s; language and customs
affinity is more intertwined than China but they have left India far behind.
China is in the process
of rising to its potential of superpower, we still are meandering. When it
comes to its comprehensive national power or means to increase its influence,
it leaves aside the values or accepted international behaviour. That’s the
reason for its massive influence over Pak; North Korea; Iran and a number of so
called rogue states. It reaches out to a nation/regime when its most vulnerable
and being hammered by the West through diplomatic or economic pressures on
issues such as human rights, drugs trafficking; terrorism, nuclear
weaponisation etc.
Even with other nations
it uses coercion to extend facilities or trade. It has succeeded in Tibet and
Taiwan being almost destroyed from the memory of next generation.
Its ruthless control
over the populace, dissent and exposure to outside media ensures people know or
perceive policies; issues as propagated by the Government of China. At the cost
of civil liberty and denial some basic freedoms, it has compensated with
economic prosperity and abundance of resources. Its control over info ensures
the world sees and hears what it wishes the world to hear and see. In fact for
an average Indian and our leadership who tend to get mesmerised with anything
Chinese, fail to appreciate the fact that it’s unfair to compare the Chinese
order with Indian disorder.
The world at large
tends to view China as larger than life and India as meandering state- it’s
partially true but not the absolute truth’.
The Chinese major vulnerabilities
are minorities, i.e., Buddhist and Muslims based in Tibet and Sinkiang.
The ruthless favouritism
by the state towards Han Chinese is deeply detested by others. Hans’s
domination is akin to our powerful caste system which deprived some totally.
This could destroy the social fabric and turbulence could have major
ramifications or the Chinese society.
Corruption and single
child norm are the other issues eating at the basic fibre of the Chinese society.
Today the biggest and existential
threat to China is from within. That is one reason it why keeps the bogey of
external threat alive through irrational and erratic behaviour like punching
passports or denying visa etc. To most of us it may appear silly but there is a
rationale behind their behaviour. But the fact is that it could, in the worst
case scenario, be upgrade into military confrontation ranging from a border
skirmish to a larger dispute. The aim would be shift focus from internal crisis
towards an external one, the probability of its happening is at it times of
internal crisis of power shift.
China is unlikely to use force
against India to regain territory but it will keep the issue simmering to
deflect the attention from internal crisis.
Indian strategy’s basic
pillars should be:
Avoid confronting both simultaneously.
If it has to be done, ensure Pak dealt when passes linking
Pak-China are closed due to snow.
Develop religion based
linkages with Buddhists of Tibet. No one is better poised than us. This also is
the softest underbelly of China. This needs to be nurtured and cultivated.
India should get the Buddhist
of the region in our pilgrimage circuit like Haj of Muslims. Sarnath; Bodhgaya and
host of other places offer the best bet.
Rejuvenate our cultural
links with South East Asia.
Befriend their enemies
with the help of trade and military cooperation treaties including sharing of
military basis.
Use soft power and
trade to bring back the allies partially alienated or in a neutral state.
Use existing or
facilitate creation of new power blocks headed by US and comprising Indian
Ocean Region states; Japan, South Korea;
Philippines; Vietnam; Taiwan ; Malaysia; Indonesia, Thailand and other littoral
sates.
Immediate challenge is
Afghanistan post US withdrawal. Pak and China will wish to move in and neutralise
Indian influence. In this Iran , Russia and CAR countries neighbouring
Afghanistan from North and North West must be engaged and if required work out spheres
of influence.
Pakistan is a painful
state akin to the younger brother having lost its way. Populace would be delighted
with closed links with India- both have a lot to offer to each other. But the
power wielders, ie, military and mullahs will not relish the idea. Till democracy
takes root and civil society takes charge of the direction the way Pak will
move in the future, we need to keep our efforts at increasing bonding with society
through trade and soft power.
Finally we need to have
adequate deterrence to prevent adventurism by either of our neighbours. This
would be possible when they perceive that the outcome would be uncertain and cost
benefits inadequate. This is a matter of perception, therefor deterrence aimed
at possessing military capability to deny outright victory for China and
stalemate for Pak would be minimal essential. Our capability to hurt them at their
soft belly will further deter military adventure. The political and economical
ramifications of our allies would further deter and military adventurism.
Finally, rather than match
Chipak- man for man and weapon for weapon, which would be financially
prohibitive, we need to use the strategy taught to us by the great exponent of
mind power and state craft in Mahabharata and Arthsastra and put in place a system
of multi-tiered deterrence.
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